Member Info for HarChris

Think of bitcoin like a triple jumper, it needs a long run up, momentum is everything. The early May fall halted a year of serious momentum. Between February and May there was every chance of hitting $100k and beyond, it would only have taken one or two exceptional events at the right time for that sort of level to have been reached and almost certainly a higher base than $36k at this point in time...

If history were to repeat itself you'd possibly be waiting years for the next significant move north but the past is not so relevant now because bitcoin has entered the mainstream in such a dramatic way. I still think however that if not years and years it will still be many months before it is perfectly positioned to be able to smash through $40k and run a hell of a lot further.

If I was you I'd be more focused on the news, statistics and data regarding bitcoin (I'm sure you are as an ex Goldman, or was it Rothschild, investment banker) and less on the current day to day swings. Personally I'm most interested in the narrative around bitcoin vs other tokens (want to see bitcoin as generally accepted as the store of value crypto whilst the others compete with each other) and whether or not there is a clear move towards further institutional adoption.

The problem is Jelly you seem to 'have your suspicions' about something not being right behind the scenes and allude to possible going ons that us PIs aren't privy to yet instead of selling like I and probably everyone else would in your situation you just decide to continue to share your unsubstantiated doubts.

The rest of us accept that this is the stock market and this is AIM, share prices don't always move in a rational way, shot sentiment can take many, many months to reverse, current commodity prices don't necessarily equal future commodity prices etc etc. There are obviously those that feel the same way as you and they are selling, hence the depressed share price however most will be happy to just sell up and move on to another company they do believe in.

The term be greedy when others are fearful is way overused but in my opinion this is one of the rare instances where it rings true.

Although it sounds a bit dismissive when posters write something like 'Graham and the board don't care about the current SP' I do think it's true. Novacyt are in an incredibly rare position for an AIM stock, they have a chance to build out the company with tens, maybe hundreds of millions of pounds. Your average company with ambitious plans will be needing to raise money every step of the way to profitability and will be absolutely reliant on a strong share price to be able to raise the sort of cash necessarily to go from one stage to the next.

The dispute with the DHSC will have further cemented this short term pain for long term gain attitude. The cash from the DHSC and the money being generated now will be earmarked for future expansion and acquisition and 100% of their focus will be on company business, not putting out a tweet that might raise the SP from £3.30 to £4.10 or whatever.

I know it's hard being on enormous paper losses but if you are currently holding shares you really need to understand this.

It's a bit of a silly comment to say 'what's the purpose of investing in AIM if you are going to lose money'.The whole point of AIM is to make more money than the FTSE but the trade off is that there is a lot more risk. Compared with the main markets a far higher percentage of investors/traders will lose on AIM but those that are successful will make relatively large amounts. If you want guaranteed money from the stock market then something like a FTSE ETF tracker will do that for you.

I read uksteveg's post a little differently at the time but I understand where you're coming from. In no way do I want to cause further disharmony on here so I hope you realise I was just sharing my point of view, albeit as a relatively new holder of BMN shares. You're clearly highly regarded on here along with a few other of the brilliant posters so I very much hope that you aren't triggered by the handful of posters on here who are quite clearly laying out bait. Atb.

I think yesterday's exchange between Alfa and uksteveg is what motivated me to comment. The latter made a balanced post including a remark about a previous failed target of Vametco producing 5000mtv per year by 2019, the former batted that away quite patronisingly and then the latter posted the evidence to show that the company had included that in an rns but later rowed back on it.

It all seemed fair enough to me but instead of leaving it at that or perhaps issuing an apology for dismissing the comment incorrectly it was turned into 'stop being so negative'. I can't stand trolls but I found that information from UKsteveg useful and yet if some of the members on here got their way those sorts of 'negative' posts would be quickly wiped from existence. There is a difference in my opinion of challenging the petty moaning or false allegations but stamping out all negativity is neither helpful or possible imo.

I'll leave it at that now, I think on the whole we agree!

It all depends on buying pressure and volume, if it doesn't look like dying down they'll cut their losses and close.

Agree Soder, it would take an extraordinary turn of events to lose money investing in novacyt today at £3.35 a share - having tens of millions wiped off the balance sheet, revenue from covid drying up considerably and the board reinvesting the cash balance that is then left poorly.

The risk/reward is evidently so heavily weighted in our favour right now.

“… but the deification is a bit cringey!…” what?
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It appears to me that some on here would rush to the defence of said poster no matter what in fear that they might stop posting, that's all. Many seem to feel the need to write gushing messages and rally round like some sort of support group!

Fully understand that Pdub and my post (which strangely got deleted immediately) was highlighting my personal opinion that however much time, effort, blood, sweat, tears and s*** someone has endured in the past your average person (not me) won't put up with rudeness without a challenge. Besides the trolls with nefarious intentions everyone would be mad not to want such an informed and knowledgeable person on this board but the deification is a bit cringey!

It's no surprise that Porky made an alias in order to attack avacta, he was doing this constantly under pseudonym numero uno and got a lot of stick for it from novacyt holders too. As chilidish as that is I don't think it makes Porky untrustworthy in regards to novacyt and don't believe for a second that he's making a joke of us by secretly trading the hell out of the stock. I would take his share price predictions with a pinch of salt but there's no doubt his enthusiasm and research into novacyt is a huge benefit to other PIs like myself and losing that would be a massive net loss to this BB.

Sadly it seems more energy is put into uncovering 'deceit' or attacking other posters rather than championing the company we are all invested in. Porky as the avacta share price falls I hope you can revel in it silently rather than publicly and otherwise continue to keep lifting the spirit of all of us on this board through this trying period! Atb :)

Who was the poster the other day that spotted construction beginning on google maps? Very impressive work!

It feels to me that although the government will push ahead with reopening the economy faster than many (particularly on here) think is sensible, they are going to have to do more to find a balance. I have felt for a long time that the airport testing market could make the world of difference to novacyt going forward but felt that despite all the work the company have done to position themselves accordingly that in the end it would quickly be replaced with some sort of vaccine passport which did away with the two/three pcr/lft tests per trip.

I've now gone full circle and not only think airport testing is here for the foreseeable future but that it might become even more important and with more of a move to sensitive pcr tests. I haven't done a detailed analysis but my own fag packet calculations for how much ncyt may generate from this market is many many millions of ££££££s.

There is no way of stopping you asking these questions time and time again it seems so I'm not going to give you an answer this time. You seem a decent person WBAFC but for the sake of the board if someone kindly responds to these same questions once again can you please find a way of processing what they've said so that you don't need to again ask them in a few days time? Perhaps write the response down and blu tack it to your wall or something!

Agreed, good post. When talking about the cash in bank and what that affords us imagine a typical £230m business which is building the foundations of their business but needs a cash raise in order to reach profitability. How much would they likely raise? Most likely a 10% dilution a little under 10% of the closing share price so ~£20m raised. That's where novacyt are at we are to imagine covid disappears overnight except with far more than £20m and no risk of dilution to shareholders. How much more we don't know but probably at least five times more.

Now that scenario imagines covid revenue dropping to zero overnight, something which isn't going to happen...

I'm not into making long term predictions but I'm confident the share price will be on its way to a recovery from July onwards.

Consensus amongst traders on twitter that the low was in earlier with many announcing buys today - that would most likely be the reason.

Called it this morning, well done you lot!

Considerable amount for me does not equal enough to move the market sadly!

After the second rns I predicted 330 as a potential bottom if news was slow to come throughout May and June and so I've put my money where my mouth is and added a considerable amount today at 333 and 335. Didn't expect it to go this low but kept money aside as I thought it was possible - no news is not bad news in this case imo.

WBAFC, ValJu, no offence but the two of you simply aren't listening. Time and time again you ask for an explanation and when you receive explanations you just continue down the same train of thought. Sure you might not agree with different members' views on why the share price is where it is but they are giving you views so it makes no sense to then ask 'can anyone explain...?'