Member Info for HarChris

I don't think it's a good analogy but I get your point. Certainly if you are an unwavering believer in Project Bitcoin then this is a half price sale, an outside observer might see that sizeable climb down from $64k as confirmation of some of the nagging doubts they had in the first place...

Maybe the vendor dropped the price by a million quid as the surveyor found some serious structural problems that will cost almost that much to get sorted?!?!

@har Chris I do think BTC dropping will offer a better entry point, my worry is BTC just goes into freefall once it breaks the 30k resistance and destroys retail sentiment completely.
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I don't think it will gointo freefall, those in the know will be half expecting a fall back to $29k at some point/aware that it's very possible and either be selling to buy back around that level or keeping some on the sidelines. Retail has already been well and truly shaken and those core retail holders will be clued up about the bitcoin cycles not to panic and sell off in the 20s.

Only my opinion but at least in the short term I don't think there's much chance of a serious sell off. I also don't think it's a definite ($29k), this could well turn out to be a long consolidation period at ~ $33k before a big push upwards in a few weeks. from now/

To be honest quite a bit has happened since I made that prediction three weeks ago, even if the BTC forecast comes in Argo might hold up better than I thought at the time.

My prediction of BTC to fall below $30k/ Argo to touch £1.05 before June is out is still very much on. Certainly not a foregone conclusion but I argued again and again and again that it was very hard to see how bitcoin could regain serious momentum without a steeper fall whilst others on here continued to focus too intensely on the charts. Momentum trading is very much my thing so although I know I sounded pompous I did say it was worth listening to all views (bar the trolls!).

I don't consider it a problem longer term, I just think it's essential in order to offer a more appealing entry for wider adoption.

But there is a fixed amount of new bitcoin that can be produced per year, currently at 900 a day/328500 a year. When there's more buys and sells wouldn't that theoretically mean all miners are rewarded with more BTC? How is that possible if that 900 is already being shared out across all miners?

Sorry if I'm failing to understand a very simple concept!

That's right, I pencilled in 2500-3000 BTC per annum once Texas is up and running but I don't think there's enough details on that yet and there are too many factors to make a precise estimate. This will be until 2024 until the next halving which I assume keeping all things equal) Argo would be mining half as many for the following four years?

Could you explain the more BTC buys and sells = more BTC for Argo bit? I do sort of understand it but can't quite get my head around how miners get both bitcoin mined + transaction fees...

This board, like most boards, much prefers unwavering positivity but on the whole holders are willing to debate with people like myself who offer an alternative take, it is the trolls that are the problem. The sort of nuisances who flood the board with posts when the share price is falling don't bring balance.

For what it's worth I watched a number of bitcoin related videos and went down a bitcoin rabbit hole recently and it made me reconsider some of my views, especially the conversation between Pompliano and Dan Held. I'm still certainly not convinced that bitcoin will be a success long term but I do have a greater appreciation for what advocates see as its place in the world and at the very least would personally give it much more of a chance to be a success/rise considerably in the medium term, by that I mean 3-5 years.

I stopped posting on here and probably wouldn't have come back if it wasn't for my softening view on bitcoin. I'm certainly not here to celebrate when bitcoin or Argo goes down like some of the FUD from you know who!

Yeah although I've been open and transparent about this from the start. Previously I merely enjoyed chatting on here and sharing my views but only now am I really looking to buy in if the drop happens, which like you say might happen might not. if anything I'm less confident of a big fall/correction happening now than I was before.

And no my posts haven't been mainly it's 'overvalued or similar', I think Argo's fairly valued currently. I won't buy at this price because I am predicting a further fall in bitcoin before the next rally and I would imagine Argo would fall at least somewhat in line with it and offer an entry *below* fair value which would give me a better chance of seeing some profits.

I've always been positive about Argo itself, good company with a brilliant management team.

That might be because you prefer to hear positive things rather than the negative/risks - I could certainly say the same for you. No I said yesterday I don't currently hold but have now freed up money to buy on any further weakness as I'm more bullish short/medium term now.

I merely share my thoughts on why I think bitcoin and arb are where they are at any given time, I sounded incredibly rampy when they were doing well but that was just because I understand momentum trading and some of you don't. There are far more rampers on here getting excited by the likes of Max Keiser predicting all time highs by June 4th (yes that's right!) and yet will still get excited by his $220k 2021 prediction even though the guy just makes it up as he goes along. And then there are the derampers who only post doom and gloom without any attempt at being informative.

To be fair this bb is more of a friend's whatsapp group than it is an investing discussion board and that's fair enough, at times I find it quite heart warming when you rally around each other during drops. It's why I only post occasionally now and leave you all to have a laugh and pat each other on the back.

Although this isn't the reaction you lot would have been hoping for post-conference.

Well K3VMC it's all relative I suppose. It's less derampy because I was bearish on bitcoin short term and now I'm not.

I don't disagree with what you're saying but the reason I think it will maintain a substantial market cap in the near term at least ($0.5t) is, conversely, the lack of fundamentals. With the lack of fundamentals what you'll find is the market plays out in a fairly predictable way, retail will buy and sell based on what history tells them will happen. My post earlier was about the momentum bitcoin managed to garner from the start of the pandemic last year right through to a month or two after Tesla bought in. The momentum was so strong that if more institutions had bought in bitcoin was flying past $100k and who knows, short term, how far it could have gone. It was a genuine chance to have bitcoin viewed differently to what it will be viewed now and if I'm honest, I think we might look back in many years from now and see it being the turning point.

I think you might be right about retail holding a higher percentage than many think but bitcoin retail still really believes in it and won't be keen selling at what they consider lows. Even a fall back to $25k will be considered as 'being on track' and shouldn't lead to further panic selling. Of course the billions backed by retail will slowly erode if bitcoin underperforms long term but I think that's some way off yet.

Also when I say big investors are in, I mean it's of interest to enough billionaires with enough connections to give it credibility. I know most of it will be tied up in stocks but Elon Musk's net worth is $150b, the likes of Jack Dorsey and the Winklevoss' have close connections with billionaires in the same ballpark. It's why I laugh when people say bitcoin doesn't need Musk, it badly does and it needs a few more like him to show interest too.

Ps we invest quite similarly I think. I hold BMN, MKA and L&G. I don't currently hold BTC or ARB.

I guess the same was said about Trump, except Trump was head of an entire nation.

As for your post here, in a sense I agree with you but any crumbling of bitcoin is not happening in the near future, I'm sure of that. The bitcoin 'project' for want of a better phrase has too many wealthy backers and more than enough believers globally to prop up a fairly substantial market cap for some time to come.

In my opinion there is no chance of bitcoin continuing to appreciate at the rate it has since its conception, most sensible people would agree with that. If you were to consider 'success' as ~ $182k by 2025 (50% compound interest yoy) and failure as $20k by 2025, I'm not sure which way I lean but I think there's every chance of that happening.

Near term I've decided to throw a decent amount of money (for me anyway) either in Argo or bitcoin if one more significant drop happens before June is out, i.e bitcoin ~ $29k or Argo ~£1.10 and stick with it for at least six months. That might sound 'derampy' but for me it's quite a climb down as a few weeks ago I probably wouldn't have bought a drop to $25k or £0.90 even!

Highveld, only just read your comment to me the other day on the FAR board, very much appreciate it!

Thanks for the reply, will watch out for it!