Member Info for HarChris

My word Porky that’s an incredibly comprehensive list of questions. I am stealing a few of them and sending them myself (worded slightly differently) so as to add extra impetus for those questions… I assume that’s okay with you.

The one’s I’m going with are the dual listing questions relating to the Bourse, Acquisitions, Novacyt Inc Stateside, your questions relating to LFT, R&D, saliva tests and a smattering of others from that long list - great stuff and great summary for new investors and those attempting to understand where we are right now !

Thanks for your reply

Poidster what's your opinion on the vaccines effectiveness waning against severe illness? Are you expecting that to also occur but at a less steep drop off re stopping one catching covid and spreading it? That to me is still the most important unknown, right now the vaccines do seem to be working well at protecting against severe disease but any change to that and we are in a whole new fight once again...

https://www.quivad.fr/novacyt

Still 0.55%, if it goes below they will have to report it.

Soder I think blackbird's figures are slightly inflated however what we do know is the cash pile should be growing and will almost certainly be well above 50% of the current mcap and probably 60% now - that is quite unbelievable still.

'BoD said in FY2020 results that even in the unlikely event the DHSC win the dispute, they will get replacement product NOT cash, so the invoices will have to be settled

So #NCYT will in essence have £200m CASH by the end of the month..So #NCYT will in essence have £200m CASH by the end of the month..'

Again, not £200m but not a million miles off don't you think?

CO, I obviously don't know but the figure I've had in mind for the past month or so (and shared on here a few times) is £7. I think that's a realistic and achievable target for 12 months from now.

Brentw to be honest I just got quite lucky. A few months ago I moved a good portion of my portfolio to cash as I was worried about the economy more broadly and was hedging against a stock market crash but since then my favourite stocks have fallen significant, so I couldn't resist!

Wilson, I did my own calcs just last night and came to a very similar conclusion, slightly lower than Blackbird's figures but very much in the same ballpark.

Nothing is guaranteed but I've more than doubled my holding this week below 295p... I know not everyone is in a position to do that or aren't willing to sell other shares to buy more here but if you can this does seem like an almighty good opportunity to build a stake cheaply and bring down one's average if it's much higher than current share price.

But CO if you aren't heavily invested at a higher level and zoom out it's very easy to see things differently. It's pretty obvious why the share price has fallen so significantly from the peak of £12, at that point we were looking forward to astonishing sums of money from the DHSC over a mere six month period with the potential for future major contracts in the pipeline. Not only did much of the sales fail to materialise but the DHSC are now looking for some of the money to be returned.

We are not a billion pound company right now, that's pretty damn obvious. The Numis target that we were clinging on to last year has been lowered from £13.65 to £5.70. We aren't going to command a PE in line with the sector until things have settled down and it's possible to project revenue for 2022, 2023 and beyond with some accuracy.

They don't need to actively support the share price, they need to convince shareholders that they have a credible plan to grow the business into a leading international diagnostics company. I would like to hear them speak passionately about their ambition, I want to hear that midcap status is achievable and they have a strategy to get there. I don't need them to address the share price fall from £12 to £3 however as that was clearly a spike and more of a long term target now, not a short term one.

Re airport testing I agree eventually it will probably be dropped but that could be many years away. Let's not forget that right across the world countries are taking completely different approaches to dealing with the pandemic, I mean look at Canberra in Australia, they went into a lockdown yesterday after discovering their first covid case in a year!

Whether for health or political reasons we won't drop testing requirements for travel until there's an agreement across most of the world that defending our borders from covid importation is no longer necessary.

Yea I agree completely Brentw1, pretty much every question relating to the share price can be answered in the same way ' whilst we understand the frustration with the share price we can ensure you that everyone at novacyt is working extremely hard to grow the company and provide long term value to shareholders'

It's far more important like you say to know what the future direction and strategy for the company is and I know it's a cliche but the share price will catch up eventually if the board do the right things and grow this company successfully.

'I am really quite fearful that given the price of PCR tests the maths used by some suggesting 10m revenue per month is mad'

I'm not sure what you mean by this? There's been no maths used, it's simply what we were earning per month in the first quarter of 2021 and what the government expect us to be earn throughout H2...

I won't be submitting any questions relating to the share price, this is too early in the growth journey for the board to be concerned with short term price action. My questions are very much focused on the relationship with the UK government. A big pull for me investing here was all the talk of building a leading diagnostics sector in the UK as well as the need to bolster our pre pandemic preparedness. As one of the main suppliers to the government we seemed like a shoe in to be directly involved in the changing face of diagnostics in this country so now I want to know if anything is going on in this regard that we are yet to be updated on. What about future pandemics? Will we be front and centre in the battle to manage whatever we are up against next?

RB is not interested in the facts and is clearly not a paid deramper. My guess? A former shareholder who sold and is revelling in seeing the share price fall.

Piece of work who just keeps appearing with a new name after every ban.

No I certainly don't think the share price is down to MM manipulation nor did I ever think that. General sentiment across diagnostics companies focused on covid testing has hit rock bottom. We're stuck in a long drawn out downtrend and it's going to take meaningful news to pull us out of that but when it does we will find buyers all the way up. Traders don't chase falling stocks they buy rising stocks that have positive momentum. They don't care what fair value is, they care in what direction the share price is trending.

When we get news that pulls us out of this funk we will find traders happy to buy at £3, at £3.50 at £4. If the news is good enough and all us LTHs are willing and happy to hold on there will be sustained buying pressure at £4.50, at £5 etc and we will see a long awaited rerate.

AIM stocks like this don't tend to tread water, they go through massive ups and massive downs. Right now we're on the wrong side of that coin which makes personal targets seem impossibly far away but they are a lot closer and can be reached a lot quicker than what it seems like right now.

It's quite obvious now that the market isn't convinced that testing is going to remain at this level for much longer, you can see that from the sharp falls in everything deemed 'covid stock'. This is affect related companies indiscriminately and we are seeing sell offs occur across the board. The money we've made during the pandemic is not being completely ignored however when you look at each 'covid stock' and how their share price compares to pre covid:

ODX - Up ~ 200%
GDR - Up ~ 120%
AVCT - Up ~ 500%
ABDX - Down 70% from IPO in December

NCYT - Up ~1900%

Out of all the others the outlier is avacta and that's because their core business is non covid related, albeit funded through covid hence the steep fall over the past month. So it's evident that time is needed, time to a) show the market that we will still make money from covid for some time to come and b) prove that we are far more than a 'covid stock' with continued strong revenue and growth from non covid sources.

It might not seem like it as we see the share price fall week after week but it really can reverse in the blink of an eye. This is AIM, this happens all the time, shares get oversold in a way that they don't on the main markets and vice versa when sentiment is with you.

ValJu yes I've seen it countless times and the FCA never seems to follow it up. I've seen filings as late as three months after passing a threshold but that's a rarity, more commonly I see ~ two weeks.

Valju, if any entity was building a stake and wanted to do it secretly I can assure you they won't be filling out a TR1 til many weeks after crossing the 3% threshold (or 5% of non UK entity).

Also just been reading this article, it's not positive re fittofly testing but does give you an idea of the sort of money being generated from PCR tests specifically. Also the push for robust accreditation for all test providers should see a far bigger market share for the companies we are working with: https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2021/aug/12/travellers-ripped-off-by-rogue-operators-as-covid-19-tests-fail-to-arrive

Bluelight great post and spot on. The early move to build this private sales network is looking like a stroke of genius now. It's a real shame to see other companies struggling because of the DHSC but as a business we ourselves are in a very sound position to take advantage.

I'm not denying that communication has appeared poor but equally I take the view that they are smart people and will know what they are doing. If they haven't communicated it with us it's not because they can't be bothered but because they believe it's in the company's interest...

Airlineboy, maybe the difference is that abdx needs to push for a quick resolution in a way that we don't because they are under strain financially? We as shareholders don't like seeing paper losses but the company aren't under any financial pressure and so are refusing to show their hand as they think they think they will come out favourably and do not need to cede ground...