Member Info for HarChris

Chris I'm not sure that's the case to be honest. In a way the most recent update has drawn a line under the sand, or at least has laid out the absolute worst case scenario. I would imagine some IIs would be willing now to invest based on that worst case scenario + the high chance of redeeming a good proportion of the disputed revenue.

I don't think there's any manipulation besides the standard that goes on in AIM and the stock market in general. There is simply no buying pressure to see any move north and there won't be til it goes even lower or there's some positive news.

Just last week you were predicting sub 2400 by March, now a further 25% suddenly and a month sooner.
You're just making it up as you go along aren't you?!

Haha what a strange accusation. I started buying last week at around £34 a share and bought all the way down to £30, now with an average of just over £31. I have nothing in common with Kitty besides the ncyt connection I think.

Other than that I hold BMN and MKA, Kitty do you invest in commodities and are you a 29 year old bloke?!

I don't think it will make an ounce of difference. The market is yet to be convinced that ncyt is going to be a highly profitable company beyond 2021. Until they convince investors that the future is bright sentiment is likely to remain low.

Sentiment also requires momentum, positive news after positive news. That is something we've been starved of in 2021 as each dispute rns sets us back to square one.

We are not being valued in line with EKF for good reason, that have a profit making history and track record, albeit modest. As time goes on novacyt's p/e is slowly increasing and I would imagine by 2022 we will start to see it rise to the industry average as the financials we post will not be considered extraordinary. If ncyt are able to match 2021s figures in 2022 the share price will be MUCH higher than it is today, without a doubt.

However it's worth noting that the increase in revenue EKF are seeing as in large part thanks to covid and still they are commanding such a high P/E.

I continue to use EKF as one of the best comparators as it is a very similar business and has no outstanding tech platforms that allow it to command a higher than average valuation.

2020 - revenue £65m, post tax profit £11.38m. 2021 guidance revenue roughly £75m and profit £15m. Cash £20m
Mcap £382m so a p/e of 33 or a forward p/e of around 22.

I think there should be no issue in matching/surpassing those sorts of financials in 2022 once our bigger cash pot is utilised, especially if we get at least 50% of the money due from the DHSC. To get to EKF's valuation would see a 72% jump from here, very realistic.

I don't care about multiple aliases even a fraction the amount of our friend CO but I'm also pretty sure DRB is Porky...

Why so many accounts?!

And you think that the effect on ASOS to rising energy prices will be so immediate that the financials after next will be severely hit and the share price will be around £25? That's not a leap that's a hop skip and jump

Wilson I think it's time we all acknowledged that WBAFC isn't a GP throwing hundreds of thousands of pounds at an AIM company!

That was 2020, I would imagine they are expected to make up a high proportion of H2 2021 revenue...

Shrewd11, post of the day - really made me laugh!

Heaters off, wooly jumpers on.

That made me chuckle - Arnold thinks the increase in energy prices will affect the SP here in such a way that it will need to drop to £25 a share before any rise.

Here's hoping Kitty!

Can't pretend to hide my frustration this time. Also a bit disappointed we're still not upgrading 2021 guidance, did think pcr travel sales would be through the roof by now.

In terms of what I was saying earlier it's more to do with the company playing the game somewhat and taking advantage of the interest and sentiment we had. I know it's not their style but they had the opportunity to excite the market by shouting about the plans they had beyond covid, even if they didn't truly amount to all that much. Perhaps a small acquisition and peppering the market with small non covid contract wins and rns' would I think have kept the spotlight on them even when covid sentiment was waning.

Again it's not their style but it seems to me that being successful on AIM requires a lot more than strong financials. We have a new CEO incoming which I hope understands this and is willing to take a different overall approach.

Risehall, this time last year case rates and deaths were low because the country had been virtually locked down for the previous six months and most of us were s*** scared of catching this strange virus so kept ourselves to ourselves. We were then entering the winter period with very little mass immunity and an ever increasing flippancy towards properly following the rules in place.

Now we are getting close to 100% having some kind of immunity, whether from vaccine or infection so obviously there isn't quite the panic or need for strict measures going into the winter as there was last year. Many are still at risk and due to the threat of a bad flu season obviously the healthcare sector has its work cut out but we are not in anywhere near as bad a situation as last year.

Then you have this in relation to deaths https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-fully-vaccinated-people-made-up-just-1-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-england-in-first-half-of-2021-figures-show-12407019 so I wouldn't expect deaths to increase exponentially, although I imagine they'll stay consistently high in line with flu throughout the winter period.

One minute PCR is dead and we are entering a period of mass LFTs, then LFT plans are shelved, then we hear PCR testing capacity is increasing, then we hear PCR potentially being dropped from travel requirements, then we hear it isn't.

With all the uncertainty, much of which is out of NCYT's control, wouldn't it be nice to get some non covid related product news??? The pandemic's been going on nearly two years now, we've been making good money for 18 months and yet still we are still considered a 'covid play' due to a lack of progress it seems in anything other than covid focused products...

They didn't, 8th Sept is simply the day they crossed the 12% threshold.