Member Info for HarChris

Great to hear ValJu! I've got to admit I didn't expect such a response this morning, thought it would be more of a slow build, but I'm delighted to see it and believe there's a lot, lot further to go.

You mean Shaun 'this is going to £1' P ?

No nothing odd about it. Would personally have liked the cash position to be included but will probably be told that later.

Overall very happy!

It would be good to get some clarity on certain metrics. On the whole we've got a good idea of what they'll be but like you say did June's revenue rise following the rise in cases? What's the cashpile, is it even closer now to the market cap or has the cash burn increased?

Personally I'm hoping for something like yourgene's reaction - they are now valued at exactly half of what we are and that is due in the most part thanks to the expectation for H2. it's certainly not due to 2020's results (£130m profit vs £12m loss. £92m cash vs £7m. £151m total equity vs £33m.

Hopefully we'll also be equally optimistic of the path ahead after tomorrow's investor meeting.

Yesterday ValJu you said this:
'So, anyone care to comment on post meeting sp, and where it will go from, there?
I will go first, late 3's firstly, rising to somewhere between 5 and 15 once word spreads....'

One day later this 'At one point I was all for £12+ hoping for £15+ actually, now as at this moment, if it hit a fiver, Id be gone and I doubt I would be alone, '

You've really changed your tune in the last 20 hours or so, sure it's not you trading?!

Or even Richard IV (Brian Blessed)

It's literally a new account, sometimes two, every single day.

I can't help but laugh at the effort he's going to to try and get the share price to his 270p entry though, slipping '270' in as often and as subtly as possible as if he's trying to hypnotise the share price into doing his bidding!

Wah? Literally nothing has changed since yesterday apart from the share price going up 5% and then back down 5%.

Exactly, the share price is extremely low as it is, no reason to expect it to go much lower.

Porky it's clear you've really listened and taken in all the comments on here and done your best to come up with twelve questions that this bb as a whole feel are most important - a big thank you from me for all your effort.

Whilst it's true that we will need concrete news and positive RNS's to see the share price really accelerate through the gears we are going into this investor meeting with lots to be confident about. The increasing emphasis on PCR testing (and the change in self isolation rules), genetic sequencing and genetic surveillance as well as the knowledge that we've built up a strong and probably unparalleled private sales network stands us in excellent stead. If the investor meeting comes off positively and the directors strike a bullish and confident tone I think that could be enough to finally see the breaks come off the share price somewhat and the start of the recovery.

CO very funny post but please don't turn this into a back and forth now, try to leave it at that.

Bighero welcome to the board and great timing, you might just make a small fortune from here!

A slow build up to the investor meeting would do us the world of good, no need for mindless ramping.

... another two brand new accounts talking to each other in exactly the same way as all the other new accounts they made.

Exhausting.

Wilson it feels to me that throughout this time novacyt have stuck with a strategy, focused on rolling out promate and POC testing, built this private network alongside reputable providers like Biograd, Victory Scientific etc all the while the narrative swung back and forth and left to right and every which way.

It now looks like they've made the right calls and PCR is winning out and we should have every reason to be confident this will result in bigger than expected turnover for the next six to twelve months.

PCR is dead?

No no no, looking more like the opposite right now...

employ*

grrrrrr so many typos today

Very useful article, will be adding the EV/FCF ratio to the others I emply - many thanks ChrisToffer!

I also watch the presentation today and it's given me even more confidence in this investment. One question I will be asking is around the future diagnostics landscape and what opportunities there are now going forward that there weren't pre pandemic and why as investors should we be confident that novacyt are positioned and ready to exploit these new opportunities.

I have a question for fellow investors... I have been tracking a lot of small cap companies over recent months and it's interesting to see how formulaic 'growth stock' share prices tend to be. Large year on year revenue/profit increases nearly always lead to meteoric jumps in the share price and wild valuations in relation to earnings - PEs of 40 all the way up to 100. This happens even when the increases have started from a very modest base, say £1m profit to £4m profit then to £7m profit leading to valuations of £350m+

We are never going to be in that situation because of the way our transformation has occurred going from a net loss of £6m to a net profit of £132m with this year likely to see net profit somewhere between £35m and £80m (higher end if paid by DHSC for Q1 and strong private sector sales). What seems to matter most valuation-wise is that profits increase year on year, not the actual amounts as such.

I wondered if others think it's possible to command the same sort of PEs as other fast growing companies or whether we have to look at this investment differently because of our circumstances? For example we could see net profit decline again in 2022 and then again even in 2023 and still be earning £30m net profit with serious cash in the bank - in that situation how are we viewed? An exciting profitable company with bags of potential or a steadily declining entity?

Our transformational is very much an anomaly with little precedent, at least as far as I'm aware. You can therefore see why the market is struggling so to value us and why we are left scratching our heads at our deflated market cap.