Member Info for HarChris

It's also amazing to me how some of the covid testing companies have managed to maintain significantly higher valuations... I'm not including avacta in this as I believe they are being valued more for their tech but a good example is Omega Diagnostics - market cap pre covid was ~£20m, today it is ~£90m. Not the craziest jump granted but then you dig down into the numbers - 2021 revenue (March to March) actually FELL! They managed to f*** up last year to such a degree that even in the pandemic as a test manufacturer their revenue fell. I find that quite staggering. Rev £8.7m, EBITDA loss of £2.2m, cash £5.8m (£10.5m placing money slowly being eroded).

Still holding onto a £90m valuation. Bizarre.

I agree though there should be a winterplex market for ever more as well as a role for novacyt in the genetic sequencing sphere. That alone justifies the current share price before we add the huge potential to diversify and build out the company through acquisitions.

I'm not convinced anyone would buy us now for our covid testing potential - the western world is getting closer and closer to 100% antibody levels and more and more scientists are predicting the end of lockdowns and calling the end of the pandemic. In the parts of the world that are struggling the most we seem to be giving tests to them rather than selling so that's not going to be a big money maker either.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/lockdowns-likely-over-neil-ferguson-scientists-1140698
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/prof-francois-balloux-the-pandemic-has-created-a-market-for-gloom-and-doom

For me it's about making as much as possible from the current fittofly testing market/private market and then looking at covid revenue as merely one string to our bow, instead leveraging our new relationships to diversify into new diagnostic areas that offer long term sustainable opportunity.

The SP is really struggling today again, this is not the time for an inane squabble on here - please cut it out.

250???

it's only been 48 hours since he's posted, there's literally nothing new for him to add.

I'm sure he's fine!

That's good to hear, thanks for sharing Wilson.

The company made a big song and dance about Versalab last year, has there been any news relating to that in recent months?

Yes day trading this share is evidently doable but it's pretty redundant to pick trade low and trade high and say 'if you invested at low and sold at high you would make x amount'. Well duh, obviously. What if at 8am you had bought in and then the SP tumbled into the 280s or even 270s? Would it then look as simple?

Hindsight trading is a lot easier than real trading.

Uggy where do I start? Toby told Kaz to make up with Matt, so she pulled him over for a chat and they agreed to be mates. Was a well nice moment. She then had a deep chat with Tyler and told him if he wants to hit it he's more than welcome to but no f*** ups or his bags'll be packed...

Oh you meant ncyt gossip?!

Broken through the £100m mcap mark, roughly 50% our mcap.
Full year revenue £18.3m, profit expected to be £3m, cash ~£10m thanks to a raise, otherwise would have been <£1m.

A useful comparator and a sign of just how much higher we will go with the right news.

Share price has also increased 1850% over the same period so not as simple as that Kitty.

Graham's shares were bought on the open market.

Good news for us is on that PCR Private Testing list Nationwide Pathology is shown as the cheapest and we know they use primer design.

Guess we've got to hope that these exploitative covid testing companies don't lead to the PCR requirement being scrapped entirely - very frustrating that this is going on, hundreds of pounds for a test is obscene.

From what I've read Wilson influenza mutates roughly twice as fast as covid so there are more variants each year. Due to the social distancing and lockdowns of last winter, flu was almost non existent which doesn't bode well for this winter - basically it was almost impossible to predict early this year what the most widely circulating strains of flu are likely to be this time around and so the chance of effective vaccines is low. On top of that there will be less immunity to influenza this time around because of the low prevalence last winter.

So we are entering the unknown again but it looks likely that the NHS are in for a challenging time ahead.

I also feel your pain Jgcw but you're not alone in sitting on a nasty paper loss. In the end of the day you need to explain to your family that what you did was take a punt, a gamble that up to now hasn't paid off and you did it with the best intentions. Risking everyone's money on an AIM stock is quite reckless and one has to accept the harsh reality if things go south but this was a gamble with odds in your favour, especially back in September when the DHSC contract was first announced.

The company hasn't failed anyone yet, they haven't squandered the cash they've built up, they haven't many any moves that risk the long term future of the business. The dispute with the DHSC has changed everything however... we thought we might be looking at £150m for the first 14 weeks of phase one of the contract plus another £100m for the final 10 weeks. On top of that there was a phase 2 that could be worth another £250m+.

So previously best case scenario was around £500m and now instead we might be having to refund money at this stage having generated nothing close to that figure. Imagine if the best case scenario had played out, I don't think we'd be sitting here at £200m mcap!

I might be wrong but don't Victory Scientific do solely PCR? I was led to believe that was the case which would make this even better news for us...

Keep this in mind - a company valued at our level would be able to raise around £25m maximum through a placing whilst we have £100m in cash without diluting shareholders. It's very possible that cash figure is closer to £150m by the end of the year.

There are always risks with any investment and nothing is guaranteed but as the SP comes down on no news the risk/reward looks ever better.

There was a fairly sizeable buy last month from the CCO, that would have been the time for others to have also bought in.
We don't want the market to continually assume there's no news on the horizon so I wouldn't see more buys as a positive right now.

Basically the same as Kaeren.

I've never claimed you or anyone else is short unless they themselves have admitted it, I've said that if I happened to be the type to go around making accusations about others you would be top of my list as a potential shorter. But, I don't and have no idea who is doing what.

No inconsistency on my part I'm afraid which I know doesn't fit your narrative.