Member Info for HarChris

CO that's what gives me the most confidence here now at this price, the longer covid proves such an issue the more confidence the company can have in short-medium term revenues and the more time and space they have to gradually build out the company. If covid revenues were about to dry up they'd be under increasing pressure to make acquisition moves imminently for the long term.

This significantly reduces the executional risk and should give confidence that growth will be meaningful and steady.

Jeez I can't type this morning, all out of sorts after a hard night on the dancefloor...

(not really)

Were any Novacytians through the nightclub doors on the stroke of midnight?!

Should be an interesting week here ahead here, GL all!

It always amazes me the lengths some men will go to compensate for a small ***** - it's nothing to be ashamed of and probably isn't even as small as you think it is Darren.

To add to that Jtan with some simple examples:
Cineworld went from a $180m profit in 2019 to $2.65b loss! The share price as of today is around 33% of what it was pre covid. A few months ago it rose to as high as 66% of its pre covid price despite that massive loss to add to the debt burden and another four months this year of virtually zero revenue.

NEX went from £150m profit in 2019 to £325m loss, nothing near as stark as cineworld and yet the SP is ~50% of what it was pre covid. We also know that the first four months have produced positive EBITDA despite being locked down for the first three months.

I've held back some cash as its best to expect the unexpected but this looks like an exceptional medium term opportunity now at this price...

You may turn out to be correct about £2 but I think it's fair to say it's unlikely currently. On the 9th November when pfizer's vaccine candidate showed 90% effectiveness the NEX share price leapt from around 150p straight past £2 and hasn't flirted with those lows again. Even with the current negativity surrounding the delta variant the outlook is entirely different to last year and worst case scenarios for the business are nothing like they were last year.

I thought from early last week that the bottom would be around 230p and I still think that.

I agree but the idea is to spot a downtrend as soon as possible, not when it's possibly right at the bottom. It's been falling for three weeks now with the sell off slowing down the past couple of days and signs to me that we might be at or near the bottom now unless the wider markets take a turn for the worse...

I don't know what your time horizon is trend364 but I'm assuming it's short. If NEX can return to full earnings in 2022 we are looking at a forward P/E of under 6 now - extreme value especially when they'll probably have picked up more business by then (the big swallowing up the small in these circumstances).

I am comforted by the additional extended support of £225m the government is giving to help bus companies through from September 2021 into mid 2022, dampening the short term risks ahead. The share price falls but the business is in good shape, arguably no worse than pre pandemic thanks to all the government support and the ability to post a profit despite a sharp fall in revenues last year - and yet the share price is less than 50% of what it was in February 2020.

I definitely think this is a buying opportunity.

What is this obsession with being informed of every contract, of being updated on every product development immediately? That is not how companies interact with shareholders, look at a comparable company and see if they are being fed information weekly https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EKF/

What we as shareholders know is the 2020 results, the revenue and profit made, the cash position, an overview of the strategy going forward, the revenue generated over the first 5 months of the year, guidance for the full year, the main products on the market, as much about the dispute as they can share for now. The rest we have to piece together and that's how it should be, we shouldn't expect to be updated about every distributor, every small contract win etc

We have more than enough information available to make a decision on whether to invest or not. This is AIM, nothing is certain, it comes down to looking at the backdrop and deciding whether or not we believe in the management to succeed - you take your chances and hope things fall into place, you do all the research so as to get some edge over the market.

In my opinion the idea that novacyt keep us in the dark is a myth.

I only bought back in here after what seemed like an over-exaggerated drop following the news that the founders were selling down the majority of their holding, albeit gradually over a ten year period. It's amazing to think we'd need a 60% rise to get back to April's high and 80% to reach Liberum's broker target set just two weeks ago!

This has got to be viewed as quite the buying opportunity, surely?!

James could you pass me on the details of MDMA Life Sciences please?

I would say the market values stagecoach around 85p currently. With positive sentiment and the hope of normality returning it has the legs to push on much higher than that, with enough negativity there is the selling pressure to push it a good bit below that.

Yes the risk of business being severely affected again is definitely being priced in, as is the risk of a deeper market-wide correction having a knock on effect to stagecoach.

That's £7b of revenue to be fought over...

Highest since January.

Short-medium term what matters most is the ability to service the large debt pile, seeing as net debt reduced last year that gives me a lot of confidence. The share price was 150p pre covid and that was only because of the large debt, get that down further and there's a realistic chance to reach the £2 level again.

I think it's highly unlikely work from home is here to stay in its current form. Of that 23% let's say 10% is lost for good, you can offset that with the push to get more people on public transport as the UK continue with the green transition which is taking shape rapidly. In my own calculations I've considered a small overall decrease in passenger numbers in the future.

Now bear in mind the share price is ~45% of what it was prior to covid, do you think the business in reality is worth just 45% of what it was in February 2020 taking into account the profit posted even in the last year???

We're each entitled to our view but this is one of those where you need to move early if it's to be worth the risk of selling and moving money elsewhere. 66p is the price now in which I would load up again, otherwise I'll stick with what I've got.

235p*********

I've got a large buy order in for 135p and I'll be then waiting it out however long it takes for sentiment to return here, average of 258p currently. Hope it turns out well for you!