Member Info for HarChris

Sound like a gambler to me trying to make it back.

If you felt that way about Argo a few days ago think carefully before throwing more back on.

I hope you realise I'm not one of those calling you out, I was simply responding to the question you've posed a number of times today. I do think the share price is hamstrung by the DHSC dispute but I don't think that's the only thing holding it back and the outlook for novacyt is about as bright today as it has been at any point since last November.

I say that as a strong believer in science and of vaccinations but what we are seeing is that this set of vaccines are not going to control the worldwide spread of covid and the need for testing over the next 12 months minimum is going to be far greater than I thought up until very recently.

It's a weak point though. It's probably true that the share price won't fly until the dispute is resolved but just last week the share price got to I think 367p and if you add some positive news re LFT to that and the backdrop that is looking increasingly bleak I think there's every chance this moves considerably before the dispute is officially resolved.

Add to that the pressure the government are under and therefore the strengthening of our hand in regards to the dispute...

This is VERY finely balanced imo... the lack of sentiment means if bitcoin does drop again into the 20s Argo is going down with it to ~80 but at the same time if bitcoin does reverse sentiment and money could well flood back in here quite significantly.

I'm going to take a small position as I think the upside outweighs the downside right now but it's still a risky move at 89p.

Seeing as Graham has historically been very conservative with his forecasts and guidance and that the guidance was drawn up about three or so weeks ago, do we not think it's possible that with delta surging worldwide and showing more resistance against the vaccines that the chance of overshooting the private sector sales guidance for the year is pretty high now???

The other reason I'm again so confident is the fit to fly testing. I've mentioned on here a few times that one concern I have (for novacyt that is) is if countries drop the test requirement for travel, instead allowing the double vaccinated to board flights and travel without a negative covid test. With the numbers testing positive despite being double vaccinated that surely is not going to be a possibility for some time to come now...

I thought med dx carried out pcr tests like biograd and ExpressTest rather than producing the tests and assays themselves?

Who are the main suppliers now providing PCR tests to the government? Is it us Randox, TF and Yourgene?

Until very recently I was in the camp that believed we were over the worst of the pandemic and testing wouldn't be needed like before, but my view has changed considerably the past week or so. I do think the vaccines will bring life back close to normality soon but there is no doubt about it that delta is causing huge problems and it is evidently not stopping moderate illness. I know of nine or ten people who are double vaccinated who have been very sick with covid in the last few weeks and although yes they haven't died, it's still going to be a massive issue for some time to come...

Add to that the troubling flu season ahead of us and it adds up to uncertain times and lots of business for ncyt.

Things really are lining up quite exceptionally for novacyt now - I can't quite understand how the share price isn't reacting with everything that's going on but hey, no point trying to second guess the market...

Absolutely. There is a high chance it will reach 400p again in the next few years.
There is still a possibility that news relating to delta turns positive (vaccine proving to keep hospitalisations and deaths very low despite high case numbers) and NEX is back at ~315p before the summer is even out...

There are loads of examples from this point onwards https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/falklandinvestor/?page=170

First example 28th September, share price 139p, thread title 'Time to Take Profit'
One week later it was about 175p, a few months later 225p, a few more months later 290p, a few more 305p.

We know falk is lying but can I be bothered to scroll through all the way to last year when he posts so much?! Oh go on then!!!

Monkshood I made the massive mistake of going chasing after other shares last year. Had a large holding of NEX from 110p and sold at 160p only to see the share price reach £3.20 six months later.

Won't make the same mistake twice.

Delta will not cause the chaos and disruption to NEX like we've seen over the past 18 months. It might lead to a small percentage of people to continue to avoid public transport, it might force the government to introduce some restrictions around christmas time. But that's about it, lockdowns are a thing of the past now we have working vaccines and 90% of the population with covid antibodies, this is on the road to recovery even if the share price is once again taking a hit...

This makes a lot of sense and it's why it might go a good bit lower first.

Still, when the dust settles the business will be worth a lot more than £1.5b so I will continue adding if the share price erodes further and then wait.

I've been tracking these two companies for 18 months now and have tried to summarise what I have found interesting as succinctly as possible below:

(i) Initial drop in Mar/Apr/May 2020 IAG - 75%, NEX 70% (compared with pre pandemic SP)
(ii) 2020 low IAG - 80% drop , NEX 75% 9compared with pre pandemic SP
Throughout last year NEX and IAG matched each other very closely.

(iii) 2021 high - IAG 50% of pre pandemic SP, NEX ~70% of pre pandemic SP
This year NEX emerged as the stronger of the two
(iv) Recent broker targets changed - IAG consensus ~60% of pre pandemic SP, NEX 75% of pre pandemic SP
Again this shows NEX looking the stronger of the two.

Now fears of the virus worsening, delta spreading like wildfire what happens? Yeah you guessed it, they begin tracking each other almost identically again. Both dropped around 20% since the beginning of June and both have dropped 15% since the middle of June.

So as long as this is once again brought under control and sentiment returns there is reason to believe there is far more upside for NEX than IAG. Thoughts?

Surely all the international travel chaos and the staycation boom that's going on will boost profits this year for NEX???

Seriously what's any of this got to do with primark? Do you think at Boohoo's management strategic meetings the name primark ever even comes up? I rather doubt it.

Yeah exactly Dan. It's why during financial crises defensive stocks with continual demand and lower gearing hold up relatively well. Debt + inability to operate (like last year) is a recipe for disaster - fortunately the transport system is seen as a necessity and the government have stepped in to keep things afloat.

I consider this somewhat a defensive stock in regards to the need to use the bus network whatever the economic backdrop, nobody is priced out. Add to that the green transition going on and the green credentials of stagecoach and we should be on to a winner here.