Member Info for HarChris

@hillseeker going back to what I was saying yesterday and what you followed up with, I was just sharing what appears to be the biggest driver in small cap stocks going exponential - if yoy revenue increases is important it's even better when you find a company with quarter on quarter and then you go one step further to the holy grail... month on month growth in revenue! That's what we experienced here last year, anticipation builds in the run up to that monthly operational update and if it's increased again then the share price just carries on zooming up to unimaginable heights.

An even more extreme example of that is Argo blockchain who also (and still) report monthly operational updates. From Sept 2020 to around March 2021 bitcoin went on a surge, rising around 500%. So did Argo rise around 500% in line with that during that unprecedented period? God no, from trough to peak it rose over 5000%.

I think the point I'm trying to make is that whilst those increases in revenue drive the share price in small cap stocks over the short-medium term, the opposite is what sinks the share price. We've been on the receiving end of that over the past nine months or so and it's one of the reasons I think we have been so excessively punished, it goes some way to explain why the share price is languishing at 267p when the business is in such great shape. I would also argue looking back that last year when the share price was above £10 that was also not a true reflection of the company, the share price was inflated.

Numis' target of 570p is very much on the money for me as a medium term target, realistic and a return of well above 100% for those able to add more now or are only just about to ride the novacyt rollercoaster.

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/10/01/after-a-blockbuster-ipo-is-the-oxford-nanopore-share-price-too-expensive/
What has become so clear to me when trading small cap stocks / growth stocks is that year on year revenue increases is EVERYTHING. It sounds incredibly basic but seeing revenue rising and compounding year on year leads to the share price nearly always following suit. Other factors do of course come into it but they are less important to the small cap 'investor'.

I am absolutely convinced that the novacyt share price would be higher if they had turned over say £50m last year and now about to turn over £100m, articles would be written highlighting how revenues are continuing to grow exponentially and it becomes easy to imagine that £50m last year, £100m this year, becomes £150m+ next year and then even £250m after that. The reality isn't all that important, it's the imagination that triggers speculative buying in small caps and as long as revenue keeps rising there is nothing to stop the momentum.

Instead our tagline reads something like this: 2020 - £277m, 2021 - £100m, 2022 - ??? Well looking at those numbers £50m? 2023 £35m? We know that's not the case but that narrative is quickly and easily spun. Forget the fact that we made more profit than any other AIM company in 2020 I believe, yes even more than giants like ASOS. It's not important to traders in the short term, the trend is all that matters...

Of course this seems so basic but I've looked at hundreds of small cap stocks and this is a very, very common theme. And eventually the fundamentals DO play out, those companies seeing exponential SP rises crash when revenues dip one year/quarter and suddenly the lack of profit and fundamentals comes into focus, but sometimes that takes years to play out.

I see this perpetual talk of bull and bear runs as problematic for bitcoin. We've seen what happens to bitcoin when momentum is with and the reverse numerous times already over the past decade. If we are calling this an 18-24 month bull run from March last year of say $6k bitcoin all the way up and past $100k, what's going to happen once it's universally accepted that bitcoin has entered a bear run? 40% drop, 60%, 80%, 90%? Who's going to want to stick out that period? Surely nobody?

Constantly talking of this 'bull run' lends itself to even starker volatility than it might otherwise see. What's happening now is much healthier - the slow, incremental but meaningful rise over the past three or four months is what is needed, not this drive for exponential growth that planB and others are always pushing for.

@byp well I didn't expect that from you, a truce it is. Despite feeling like I've genuinely made far more correct calls than bad with this share my posts earlier don't add anything and my price predictions should probably be kept to myself. I'll bear it in mind.

Have a good weekend.

This quote 'any fall below ~270p (that does not mean 268) ' meant don't call me out if it goes under a penny or two because nobody in the world can predict a penny or two, call me out if you are right and this ends up at your prediction of £2.50 ish. I even added the brackets because I know how god damn pedantic you are!

And no LSE said 273.3 at the time but LSE is always delayed and off the beat, HL quoted me sub 270p at the time of posting.

The problem with you @byp is that you don't live up to the very high standards you set for everyone else. You call out every inconsistency, every faux pas, anything you deem hypocritical yet you display all of these characteristics yourself and some...

Are you stupid? I said by ~270 that does not mean 268. This sign '~' means about, circa. I was making the point that this range is the floor, it will not slip to the sort of price you were predicting (sub $3/£2.56) without further bad news.

I mean I was even posting about ~270p being the floor when the price to buy was 269.9p earlier so I obviously wasn't saying it couldn't go below 270p.

That might be true if most of the board were part of the original tiny company pre covid - the CFO is new, the CTO is new, the CCO is new and soon the CEO will be new.

This is not the same company as it was in January 2020.

I'm please InvestorSteve is putting in such a stint as our new friend DRB has taken a bit of a break over the same period.

A big clue for me is days like yesterday - forget the positive parts of the RNS, the 6 month delay for the rapid antigen test would have seen the share price plummet with no bounce back if there was further downside.

Again, today, the attempt to push this down looks to have failed and will probably finish the day up.

@byp I won't challenge that but if if it does go that low it will be a short, sharp tree shake and immediately back to @2.70/€3.17 imo- this share follows a very similar pattern each cycle prior to the spikes.

If it goes to €3 for even a few hours then please do call me out for talking bs!

@byp Not by me, I've called the floors correctly numerous times.

Any fall below ~270p (that does not mean 268p) will be very short lived and you can hold me to that.

Next time I'm sure everyone on here will be willing to pay for your expertise - many thanks for the free counselling.

Have absolutely no doubt that ~270 will be the bottom, we are in a very rare situation where the cash pile does prevent any sudden crashes from this point.

Of course it can go lower with bad news and time but I don't think there's any chance in the short term.

Worth bearing in mind these are just based on more recent price and on chain metrics after PlanB was more or less forced to give up on his S2F model - https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1442772744450592771

There is no reason for the directors to come charging in tomorrow with share purchases - they are probably best to let it settle first before using that particular tool to try and kick start a recovery.

' F##k me Anders is in this?!'

Steve you only signed up a couple of days ago and now you are referring to posters like an LSE stalwart!

Very nearly ignored my buy limit at 114p today to buy in higher instead, surprised to be honest it's back down here again but the market isn't playing nicely at the moment.

Good rns, does anyone know how many bitcoin Argo are likely to be mining in mid Q4 with the 1.7 Exahash? Obviously factoring in increasing global hash rate to some degree (of course that's more of a best guess). 275???

OR alternatively that will all be priced in now as it's the unexpected that jolts the market. It will be more of a surprise if costs and profit aren't hit! I agree it could move even lower before now and the 14th though...

Exactly investing101, sentiment is absolutely shot across the online retail space and that will prevent an immediate bounce back, although an eventual bounce is a certainty. I'm on the sidelines watching and waiting for a better entry and I imagine there will be many more in the same situation.

No rush to get in and my guess is this goes lower first, around the £2 mark.