Member Info for HarChris

The price you were quoting and were linking to was not the current price.
If you don't want to admit you were wrong then fine!

You were looking at the pre market trades - easy mistake fella

Sorry but you're wrong K3VMC...

$16.29
+0.02 (+0.12%)
DATA AS OF OCT 06, 2021 11:14 AM ET

Quite amazed to see this held down still despite bitcoin breaking out.

Intentionally misleading - arbk is at £121.6, it is below the LSE price. It's only up because it closed so low yesterday.

I find it very much helps me to be patient when waiting for an entry and also not to panic if the price goes to a level that seemed almost unimaginable just a few weeks before.

That's very true Big. For AIM companies I'm invested in/looking to invest in I do the best analysis I can with the available information that's in the public domain and come up with a share price that I see as the absolute bottom - I then allow an extra 10% or so as markets don't behave rationally in the short term whatsoever.

I did this for novacyt after the last rise on the way down and came up with 275p as the bottom, so this is below what I thought realistically possible just over a month ago but just about within the 10% margin I allow for!

Well the share price is largely where it is because of a lack of BOD support. We know as night follows day that at some point, probably in the run up to the AGM, the share price will rally. It's happened five or six times in the past six months. What we've never had is anything from the board to maintain momentum when that's occurred - that's when we need director buys, that's when we need a positive, bullish update, that's when news landing of a non covid acquisition would really kick the share price on and probably leave it trading in a higher range.

Instead the shares rally as much as 50% followed by weeks of silence and the inevitable sell off, follows starting with traders and then slowly driven down further by shorters, bots and PIs.

I remember the share price being about £7.50 and thinking ‘god sentiment is really against us!’ whilst in reality the share price was up about 3000% and novacyt was the talk of the town.

NOW we are experiencing what negative sentiment really is!

That was too much of an open goal not to have a chuckle at, be fair !

Besides that yeah I called it wrong and you called it right, congrats. Will not throw out any short term predictions again on here and that’s a promise (watch me keep this one a little longer than you’ve managed ;) )

Good call… but you surely see the hilarious irony in your post, right?

‘I’m not going to announce I told you so’ and what do you do almost the second it does indeed touch €3 ? A gloating post !!!

I'm all for different opinions but claiming that novacyt are about to be forced to raise money is patently false - it is I suppose hypothetically possible but extremely unlikely.

Dunc is being intentionally misleading, ignore.

I visit the ARB board regularly, partly because I'm looking for an entry I'm happy with, partly to watch with amazement as Tiger boldly appears to make incorrect prediction after incorrect prediction after incorrect prediction. I don't think I've come across anyone as clueless as him!

How much leeway do they have when it comes to guidance ? They've said 'approximately £100m' which is not precise, if it comes in at £112m for example then it comes in ahead of guidance with no questions asked...

Of course it probably means it isn't going to be say £125m+ but I'm more than happy with any beating of guidance.

Good question, not sure to be honest but with the huge uptake in pcr testing for travel this quarter we could easily see 35+ and an upgrading of the full year revenue!

On the 9th April we got a trading update informing us of the dispute however they also used it to share the first quarter revenue. On the 22nd June we got the 2020 full year results but within that update they also shared revenue for the first 5 months of 2021. Finally we got the six months revenue figure in the half year on the 18th August.

A trading update soon is very possible one would think?

Simple analysis once again but I think it helps illustrate the position we are in:
Take EKFs latest acquisition - for £7.3m (+ some additional payments over three years depending on performance) they got a business which is on target to turn over £9.2m in 2021 with an EBITDA of £3.9m.

Novacyt have more than ten times that at their disposal with the possibility of much more soon. If the board buys well we can realistically be looking at close to £100m revenue business in the near future from acquisitions alone...

It's not baseless though is it? Bitcoin's going up and argo is failing to follow in the run up to an operational update which, on the surface, isn't going to look that good.

Month on month increases are what builds momentum, declines in revenue don't. We know the reasons why but it will be used to drive the share price lower.

As it happens i'm almost certainly buying in once this operational update is out the way, the R/R from here is way in favour of reward.

Sell off going on before the September update?