Member Info for HarChris

480BTC taking their total to 129699BTC - that must really have shifted the average!

In it for the long haul this time however, feels too significant and too close not to be in it to win it.

Well of course it's good from 40-70p but that isn't the point. Today the news was considerably better than expected and yet a few weeks ago I might have been paying 125p+ for avacta shares - today I got them for 108p. People hold in order to be in it when the good news lands effectively pricing out those like me, it hasn't done that this time...

I've been on the sidelines again recently and thought I'd obviously missed my opportunity to get in only to find myself with a 108p buy quote on open - feel this 10% is little reward for those that held on and took on the risk.

Is there any research to back up these thoughts? I have some shares in Corz and Riot but am a little worried that things may get hairy in the next couple of months...

Corz at least is still operating at full capacity, currently mining over 40 BTC a day as shown on their daily tracker.

Mara have about 10000 BTC on hand that will almost certainly start being dumped soon - it's hard to see BTC recover til distressed assets like this have been churned through.

BC well the share of the total network increases for the other miners and their bitcoin mined goes up slightly but no Mara going offline won't be significant by itself, we're talking perhaps 1-2 extra BTC minted for Argo if all their operations were to go offline.

This research is being discussed all over the place including CoinDesk - Hexam here's your chance to tear it up, make it better and get your face in front of the cameras!

Fair enough Hexam, I think difficulty will continue to fall but you're right it won't come down quickly and will take some time for the least bear-fit miners to bite the dust. Even then I suppose we'll see distressed assets bought off cheap as well as new cash-rich entrants coming in and buying up ASICs on the cheap so hash rate is unlikely to ever capitulate.

Once machines start being turned off those keeping theirs on will see the benefit. For example let's say company A's all in sustaining costs (AISC) are $5m a month and they are currently mining 200 coins a month, their breakeven BTC price is therefore $25k. Fast forward a few months and company A has managed to continue with operations whilst peers are switching off machines and others have actually gone under... now difficulty has halved so $5m a month costs mining 400 coins a month gives a BTC breakeven price of just $12.5k.

If miners are truly feeling the pinch already then this sort of scenario is going to play out sooner rather than later.

I'd ignore anything said on ADVFN if I were you.

From what I can tell FAR have really missed an opportunity in failing to raise a shi* load of money when the market cap was well over £100m earlier in the year - it's just hard to see how they will ever raise the funds needed to develop Balasausqandiq.

I saw a comment over on the FAR board about the mine being built incrementally from cash flows... well at 260 tonnes V205 i.e 145mtV production currently it's going to need the patience of a saint!!!

Thanks Ventura! Looks like I have the Midas touch ;)

I bolstered my holding and bought a few shares back this morning. Why? Well after seeing 4D pharma go into administration last week it woke me up to how many others are sadly going to face the same fate if broader macroeconomic conditions don't improve. Novacyt's softly softly approach hasn't helped the SP up until now but we do sit in the envious position of being cash-rich and acquisition hungry just as those the company probably have had their eyes on potentially crumble in valuation over the coming months.

Add in the development with the counter claim and the narrative moving away from covid (whilst covid still rips through the country at the hottest time of the year) and it's easy to see value here.

This news is spreading, very positive indeed!

Those mining the most and producing the largest revenue will be the most attractive and carve out even more market share if/when BTC reverses, as long as it's not so long as to have caused terminal damage.

I don't think hash is meaningless or anything to do with luck, I mean look at Core Scientific's mined BTC per month YTD:
1077 coins mined in January
981 coins mined in February
1134 coins mined in March
1121 coins mined in April
1138 coins mined in May

Very helpful article, thanks for sharing.

What this is really asking is 'if this bear market and these prices go on well into the future which miners will be first to fall?' If BTC starts to recover in the next few months probably none will have suffered any lasting damage and those with the highest hash and biggest operating cash flows with carve out even bigger market share.

Anyone remember the sky high broker targets that came flooding in last year? This time last year Chardan Capital gave 4D (well LBPS) a buy rating and a target of £4.10 ($40 LBPS). Well guess what, today they've been downgraded to neutral... what a joke and waste of time these brokers are!

Chardan Capital analyst Keay Nakae downgrades 4d pharma (NASDAQ:LBPS) from Buy to Neutral.

After the trial readout on March 23rd (yes literally just three months ago!) 4D reached an intraday valuation of £142/$170m - to cease to exist over a $7-10m outstanding debt to OF seems quite shocking.

If Duncan was competent and on top of the situation he'd have worked flat out to get a placing away at 40p late March.

It’s less to do with whether this is the bottom and more to do with how long BTC trades below ~$30k - for all the hundreds of millions spent on rigs at sky high prices the miners won’t survive in one piece without returning to profit in the near ish future.

Most will survive but not in one piece.