Member Info for HarChris

Interesting to see the different approach different miners are taking.

Hut8 still HODLing 100% of bitcoin mined, 7406 held now.
Riot continuing to sell roughly 75% of their monthly coins mined, continuing to hold a substantial amount, 6654
And as we know Corz and bitfarms dumped thousands recently.

As the miners differ in strategy we are going to already start to see winners and losers over the next couple of months.

Hexam and I both understand the concept of adjusting for inflation. $12.5m *is* a ridiculous prediction for the bitcoin price in 2030 and it almost certainly won't be equivalent to $1m in today's money, most likely more $6m in today's money.

To stay as wealthy as you were you do need your assets to rise faster than inflation but that has historically been the case through owning physical property and main market stocks.

This really isn't the point. Those that took the risk to hold bitcoin in its infancy were rewarded, they probably also held loads of other nascent investments which went to nothing. A few small caps rise 10000% from an mcap of £20m to £2b over 10, 15 years, very few then go on to rise another 10000% to £200b.

Again I'm not ruling it out but I'm saying that the signs aren't all that good at the moment and I've been consistent with my views. Back in early 2021 I saw a slim but very real chance of bitcoin adoption accelerating, of institutions following Elon Musk and Tesla in a race to accumulate, but it didn't materialise. The faces promoting bitcoin are all the same faces that were promoting it a few years ago bar the odd new one and actually some of them appear to have grown weary and have moved their attention elsewhere. Personally I know of nobody in the past year to start investing in bitcoin whilst I know a few bitcoin obsessives who have lost faith and are moving some of their money to the stock market / alternatives.

Bitcoin has been ruled out as a realistic currency, it is no longer going to be seen as a hedge against inflation, what it has left to win is the digital store of value and whilst that is still possible time is running out - if adoption is seen to be slowing / active users declining then its chance to go parabolic again will be gone.

We are highly unlikely to see anything like that. Perhaps two to three years of runaway inflation which will give the inflation bros reason to believe they've called it right from the very start (except they are the types that will call it every year til they die whatever the reality is).

Complete load of bolloc** - whilst absolutely anything is possible predictions imply a base case, if his base case is north of $12.5m a bitcoin in just 9 years then he's an idiot - $12.5m in 2031 so say ~20.3m bitcoin in circulation gives a market cap of approximately $255T. Bitcoin absolutely buckled under the pressure of a $1T market cap, eating up most of the world's wealth is near on impossible.

I'm not sure the percentage of people who *really* believe in bitcoin has changed much in the past few years, if anything it might be declining. For bitcoin to reach even a tenth of that prediction there needs to be such a radical change in thinking in all of the people in the world that really matter, not poverty stricken El Salvadorians and Africans.

Ridiculous prediction.

During the month of June, the Company sold 7,202 bitcoins at an average price of approximately $23,000 per bitcoin for total proceeds of approximately $167 million. As of June 30, 2022, the Company held 1,959 bitcoins and approximately $132 million in cash on its balance sheet.

We've established that big pharma will pay billions for companies still at p1 stage but out of interest are there any examples of big pharma buying up publicly listed companies for 500%+ or even 300%?

Sure, the tweet merely backs it up two weeks on as we are now in July very much confirms it will be commissioned as expected.

https://twitter.com/Tirupatiuk/status/1543995037901635591

Personally predicting a relief rally to ~$28k. Why? Well besides distressed miners and others with upcoming debt repayment deadlines I can't see many dumping at this price. Even the miners aggregately have stopped selling which should be a sign that, barring any more contagion, BTC is likely to go up in the short term.

Many of us were doing that three weeks or so ago, the problem is bitcoin has fallen lower than almost anyone expected and now there are NO miners that we could safely say will survive this bear market if the price trades below $20k well into 2023 which is a very real possibility.

Whilst a bitcoin recovery is very much not on the cards I imagine what the miners are all praying for is a relief rally to $28-$30k for a chance to free up cash 50% higher than today's price and possibly try to raise funds whilst the mood music is a little more positive - those that make the most of any dead cat will outlast those who fail to.

If you really believe all that Hexam then at least in your eyes there is very little reason to be holding Argo over the giant North American miners now… We all agree that the upside for the likes of Corz is many times that of Argo at today’s prices (e.g mining 1200 coins a month, 8000 HODL and <2.5 times Argo market cap) whilst potentially very similar downside risks if BTC were not to recover in the next six months…

PW composed his 'Quarters and years, not hours and days' tweet on April 13th 2021 with the share price at 225p. 5 quarters and 1.25 years later the share price is 32p.

Maybe he meant years and decades :D

If Argo had sold 20% of its HODL at $60k and bitcoin had then gone on to $100k I don't think the sensible amongst investors would have been critical - it's prudent risk management. All this talk of bear market preparation isn't true or the miners wouldn't be forced to dump as many as it looks like they now are (going by bitfarms leading the charge). They prepared for a downturn but not for one of this magnitude.

I doubt any miners are selling because they think BTC is going much lower, those like Riot, CleanSpark, Corz did that earlier anticipating a drop. No, those selling now will be forced to and perhaps recognising that if BTC were to go even lower and they were then forced to sell they'd be in even deeper trouble.

I don't think many of us would have guessed how quickly it was going to get to this stage but focus has already turned to survival.

Are you saying the 2700 fewer bitcoin showing up in Core Scientific's May results could in fact be lost from the Luna/Celsius/3AC fiasco rather than sold? They never mentioned the reason for the lower HODL so assumed they had sold them...

Which miners are going under poorinvestor?

With production and costs on target to meet guidance and with the exchange rate where it is we are all but certain to post significant positive EBITDA and v. likely to post an overall net profit. With the exchange rate moving so heavily in our favour anything above ~$36/kg will see BMN swing to profit and what we have seen so far from H1 is V prices in every geography well above that - I make it something like $42.5/kg in Europe, $43/kg in China (slightly less than Europe when factoring in tariffs) and much higher in the US, perhaps $53/kg (erring on the side of caution here, some think it far exceeds that).

Now look at the geographic split in 2021 - Europe 29%, China 3%, RoW 21%... US 47%! With demand evidently high in the US this year and with prices so elevated do we not agree that we will be selling AT LEAST as much to the states as last year, if not more?

Tl:dr whilst nothing is proven til we have it in black and white it looks highly probably that H1 produced considerable cash flow for BMN and unless V prices sink dramatically in the second half of the year we will return to a net profit in 2022.

Chae it's worth having a look at who had the foresight (or perhaps simple luck) to start selling bitcoin before this recent crash. Corz for example for the first time this year started selling in May, 2700 BTC in fact/ ~$31k per bitcoin/$83m I'd imagine. That's some opportune timing and more than 40% premium on what other miners are likely selling today.

Riot sold 200 BTC in March, 250 BTC in April and 250 BTC in May which also looks inspired now.

On the flipside you have bitfarms dumping 3000 BTC at just $20k per bitcoin in June.

Squid are invertebrates so technically not fish.