Member Info for HarChris

I think there are some very naive CEOs that get caught up with company valuations during bull markets, especially as the markets had been in one from 2009 to 2020 and quickly recovered after the covid hit too.

When the OF credit facility was sorted 4d were trading around £180-£200m and biotech was flying, Duncan spoke confidently of cash runway in Q4 2023 and I'm sure he thought some positive results along the way and a £25m+ placing would all tie in nicely.

Shareholders have taken on a lot of risk here but the blame squarely falls on Duncan and the management. I can see why some will have doubled down at such a low share price earlier in the year when he spoke of a q4 cash runway, as far as they were concerned there was still time to sort this out or at the very worst get a placing away.

No one expects anything at this point, I put it out there to give an example of another pharma that went into administration and came out okay eventually and you're throwing out your opinion like it's fact.

There is evidently a chance that shareholders get something back here. 4d's platform and drug trials have shown a lot of promise but we are where we are due to a combination of bad luck, bad timing and terrible management. Perhaps it would be best to share your opinion in future without trying to make it out to be fact.

I didn't say that's what I considered, I am saying that interestingly the share price hasn't collapsed for whatever reason. When you think Argo was trading below 70p in January with BTC at $38k and argo making solid profits it's a surprise to me that the share price has only halved since with the significance of BTC dropping to $20k.

It's interesting to compare the Argo share price with BTC. For the first quarter of 2022 BTC was downtrending but relatively stable, falling about $5k to $42k from $47k at the turn of the year whilst Argo was dropping steeply, from about 95p to 65p.

The first large drop in BTC around 5th May took BTC to $30k and Argo, having settled at around 65p fell sharply to the 45-50p range. By many calculations ~$30k was the all in breakeven price so it was understandable to see Argo fall as the market started to price in the downside risk.

The second large drop occurred around 12th June, this one far steeper than (almost) anyone had predicted with a low of ~$17600 before recovering to the $20-$21k trading range. Surprisingly Argo has held up much better than expected seeing as the BTC price is without doubt well below the all in costs for Argo and possibly even below the breakeven price with Helios phase 1 kitted out.

So all in all the move down from $30k BTC to $20k BTC has left Argo trading from around 48p to 35p, a drop of just 30% despite moving into deeply unprofitable territory. The market is either expecting BTC to recover sooner rather than later or believes Argo will prove it's more efficient than its peers and will be able to outlast them in a war of attrition.

I don't disagree on the whole but 4Ds loss for the first half of the year will be more inline with previous years (~25m per year/£12m for H1), 4D had more going on in 2021 and access to increased capital after listing on the nasdaq and merging with the LBPS Spac as well as using that first trance of the OF agreement.

So I suspect there will be some equity left whichever way you swing it but it won't necessarily be all that much of a consolation for holders.

After someone mentioned this particular case I thought it would be worth sharing some of the details:

On the 25th May 2017 shares were suspended as RedX were unable to repay a loan to Liverpool City Council for £2m, they were able to pay £1m in return for a grace period but this wasn't accepted and the company were forced into administration - share price before suspension was 32p and three months before the company had raised £11.5m so this seems like a small amount to be going into administration over.

Lots went on over the next ~ 6 months before shares resumed trading again on the 6th November (see https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/REDX/?page=6 for details of updates during the suspension period).

Upon resumption of trading unsurprisingly the share price opened lower and continued to fall before settling ~33% lower at 21p. Things got worse over the next year with the share price drifting downwards all the way to ~7p before a reversal kicked in and today shares are going for 65p... those who stuck it out through it all have doubled their money since the suspension.

Would need to do a lot more research to know how similar 4d's situation is to Redx but hopefully it gives some of you a glimmer of hope.

It's easy to look smart after the fact but whilst history often repeats itself other times it doesn't. No market is as predictable as you are making out, the cycle we've seen will not repeat itself forever. This time around the narrative that institutional support and rapid adoption would prevent the sort of ~80% drawdown from cycle high to bottom was persuasive and may even have played out differently if the broader macroeconomic outlook hadn't turned so bleak so fast.

On the flip side I don't believe it's inevitable that there will be a bull run after the next halving to $500k or whatever is predicted. It's likely but there are many factors that could change the course for bitcoin and see it break away from its historical price action.

Merck already owns 4.6% of the company and has formed a strong partnership with 4D... they're a $250B company, if they believe in MRX0518 then there's got to be a chance they keep 4D's business afloat.

If the finances were as precarious as this why was 4D spinning so many plates? They had the MRX0518 + Keytruda trial, Bavencio, the phase 1/2 Asthma trial, as well as going after covid last year. Seems reckless to me.

Very sorry to hear of your loss crl, that's very, very tough. I know there are others on here that were heavily invested and must be feeling sick tonight. I bought a few back myself recently, before the Q&A and am a little stung myself but in particular I feel for those who may have got themselves into a financial mess.

I'm sure all will turn out okay, money doesn't bring happiness in the end of the day - stay strong!

This *just in* was about three days ago but yeah, big advantage to new entrants or those with cash available - was it clean spark that recently started buying up cheap rigs?

Five years ago the share price was 8.2p with a market cap of about £65m. BMN had just acquired the vametco mine and were still pre revenue. Fast forward five years and BMN have grown to a 4200mtV producer and are fully funded to reach 5200mtV, have seen huge profits of about $100m in 2018/2019 which have been reinvested, they have acquired Vanchem for $68m, 100% owned (unlike Vametco) and are building it out to a capacity of 4650mtV and are a year away from the commissioning of their electrolyte plant which will initially consume ~1100mtV at higher margins... Not only that but this year they will return to profit after a difficult couple of years largely due to covid.

Five years ago £65m market cap, today £85m.

Surprised by the mere 2.35% drop in difficulty yesterday - a few more months of $20k or lower and I'd imagine none of the big miners will have any bitcoin HODL left.

I'm thinking it's a good idea to sit back a bit and see what news emerges first - if we are given a clue soon as to which major miners are struggling the most we may also be able to work out which then go on to benefit significantly from the inevitable crash in bitcoin difficulty.

$56/kg in US *** sorry.

V price has held up well Kpidgeon - in fact besides the odd spike it's the highest it's been in three years. Average across Europe YTD is about $45/kg and the US has averaged around 60/kg so far according to the FastMarkets correspondent and is still holding up at $58/kg!

The disconnect is bigger than it's ever been by far.

'Market cap £87M and require £123M to develop the business to 8000... p.s. i'm under water again at BMN'

Absolutely, shows just how stupid the current market cap is - would cost hundreds of millions for another entity to get to where we are today...

Well it's a bloody good job we didn't rush to expand to 15000-25000mtV, the demand is simply not there for it right now.

Still think whilst not groundbreaking progress has been steady and positive over the past 12 months and more than justifies a share price higher than it was this time last year - ie 15-20p. The fact we're sitting under £100m market cap with no obvious urgency to buy in is a head scratcher.

Not really, it smells like risk-off small cap trading.

I'm sure AB would admit he got it very wrong not selling much earlier but that's been and gone and he believes in the company and bitcoin so if it recovers as he expects he'll still make money, just not nearly as much as if he'd timed his exit and bought back in. It's well past the stage that an Argonaut would consider selling in an attempt to buy back in lower.

No I'm simply saying that you extend your timeframes to know how well you are doing. If someone starts with £100k, turns it into £10m and then sees it fall to £200k over three years I would consider that a 100% gain over three years (and a fortune wasted).