Member Info for HarChris

If you're talking about bitcoin miners the PE levels are fast dropping to zero/undefined, hard to make profit as BTC goes lower until difficulty is adjusted right down.

There certainly weren't any buy quotes at 37p, lowest I saw was about 40p.

And i'm not talking to you here Chaebol, I know why you're here.

Then what are you here for then? I've been waiting for this sort of level/capitulation to buy in heavily for some time, to continually watch but never buy in seems a bit pointless to me.

Been following Will Clemente's analysis of the market + a few others I trust and they've been talking about $22k-$24k as the probable bottom since about April. Pretty close to that now, will be interesting to see how low the miners go...

Yeah I mentioned that in my post re Corz, for the first month as far as I could see the HODL has declined.

'Due to the nature of the company forming (via the SPAC) they have been heavily funded to the point of being well ahead of all the competitors (mining more than Riot and Mara combined currently). They continued to build their HODL (end of year 5296, end of April 9618) but for the first time in some time the HODL fell month on month to finish May at 8058 so worth bearing in mind, maybe cash is becoming an issue or some forward planning is taking place.'

You're failing to account for the significant difficulty adjustment down that will occur if 'BTC crabs between 15k to 28k until then, with occasional fake pump to 35k' - many machines will be turned off, there will be little appetite to lend to crypto miners for expansion, those least efficient will go to the wall first which would mean the likes of Argo at 5.5EH could possibly be mining as many as 800 or so coins - with further expansion plans on hold and with 800 coins a month (in your dire situation where others are going to the wall) Argo would at least be able to sell ~$20m of BTC a month to keep the lights on...

I'd be more concerned if it looked like he was trying to significantly reduce his position rather than a multimillionaire cashing out $7m.

Are you talking about the recent director sells from the CEO Darin Feinstein? Well over the past month he's sold just over 2 million but he still holds 33 million shares so I wouldn't be too concerned about reducing by barely 5%.

I mean he did sell them on average in the mid 3s, perhaps he just predicted what was coming?! (will probably hit the $2 mark this week).

We certainly agree on the upside and downside but I consider the downside for both fairly similar in most bearish circumstances whereas the upside is potentially very different for Corz than it is Argo, especially with their current issues which need to be ironed out just to get to ~40% of the 1050 currently being mined by Corz. My point was that as most on here are reasonably optimistic about bitcoins future the downside is less relevant unless it’s serious enough to hamstring the company which I think is unlikely in this case (but agree with you re the convertible loans).

I also think you’re looking at 2021 and assuming the same will apply going forward each year but that’s highly unlikely. 2020/2021 was the year Bitcoin mining giants were born but the years ahead will be very different. Many miners for example will switch to a survival strategy and won’t have the funds to keep building hash rate. EBITDA gives an idea of how profitable the company would be in more normal times when miners are ticking over and preserving cash and waiting for the next bull run.

AB I've started my research on Corz and have not found any obvious reasons to avoid the share. It appears very obvious that the downside risks are being more than priced in as well as the fear of freefall if the nasdaq and BTC go lower. Due to the nature of the company forming (via the SPAC) they have been heavily funded to the point of being well ahead of all the competitors (mining more than Riot and Mara combined currently). They continued to build their HODL (end of year 5296, end of April 9618) but for the first time in some time the HODL fell month on month to finish May at 8058 so worth bearing in mind, maybe cash is becoming an issue or some forward planning is taking place.

In terms of geographical risk Corz spreads its miners out across data centers in Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, and North Dakota, with facilities in Texas and Oklahoma under development, so not reliant on one area/site.

The other day we were talking about the headline figure of 40-42EH which sounded astronomical and then the reduced target of 30-32EH which still sounded astronomical - it’s worth noting that this broken up into self-mined hash rate and hosting so the headline figure is a tad misleading. Currently they are at a total of 17.1EH (9.2EH self-mining) so actually they are looking to expand by roughly 80% by the end of the year. At current difficulty this would mean roughly 1850 coins mined a month, approximately 4 times what we expect Argo to be mining. They have considerable cash available but I'd imagine they will need to keep selling a portion of their BTC to successfully meet those expansion plans.

I don’t agree with Hexam’s conclusions re Arb vs Corz. Sure profitability is similar with low BTC but that’s because profit is broadly wiped out across the board at this bitcoin price. The operations with bigger, more aggressive expansion plans will always suffer more if the commodity it mines declines but surely everyone here believes in bitcoin to varying degrees and are choosing to invest (at least some of their funds) in miners rather than BTC in the hope of even bigger returns (+ISA benefits). So besides the obvious risk of bankruptcy which I think is v low for Core Scientific (would require a really long and brutal bear market ) then they’ll almost certainly be better placed to benefit from the next bull run and their numbers are going to look mighty impressive.

If you were to look at 2021 net profit Argo looks the much better bet at these valuations ($37m vs $47m for Corz) but there's a lot more to learn from EBITDA in 2021 as capex spend was so high ($71.4m vs $230m)

ArgoBull, you believe in $100k BTC and I'm pretty sure if that occurs Corz will still be around minting new bitcoin and probably mining 1500-2000 a month so a valuation of $758m (and likely going lower next week) is surely worth having a pop at if you have funds available.

Thanks, I assumed that must be the case but I didn't see the relevance of reporting the spikes to 300EH, that seems irrelevant to me.

Can someone explain this to me please? According to the site I tend to look at hash rate is at around 225EH yet I'm seeing articles about hash rate nearing 300EH, what am I missing? Which is the figure I should be using?

Here's the two links for clarity: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate , https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoins-hashrate-hits-an-all-time-high-nearing-300-exahash-per-second/

With high inflation many workers in SA will be delighted with wage rises in line or at least very close to being in line with rising prices - the NHS is looking at 3% this year for example with UK inflation around 9%, a 6% real-terms cut.

Unless you're talking about hyperinflation akin to Zimbabwe in 2008? That's highly unlikely to happen.

I don't have much time this weekend but for you AB i'll do my best to do some research and share as you're always so generous with your own research. What is pretty obvious is that the likes of Corz are multibaggers if bitcoin turns and heads towards $100k. I mean we're talking about ~31EH by the end of the year and they are valued at $750m...

I mean if BTC hits $100k at any point in the next twelve months and that 31EH is achieved Corz should be mining between 1200 and 2500BTC (pretty impossible to predict difficulty in those circumstances) - the lower end is $120m a month revs, the upper $250m!

Going from today's 9.2EH/s to 30-32EH/s in just six months under the current conditions has got to be a tall order however that ~30EH/s is a very recent downgrade from 42EH/s so they must think it's achievable.

Nasdaq/US market is more relevant to the miners than BTC price right now I'd say - even if BTC holds support at $29k the miners will keep going down if the nasdaq breaks below 11000.

I jumped in a tad early with Riot yesterday at 5.45 annoyingly, will definitely add more and probably buy Corz and others (with more research over the weekend) if any further weakness.

'In announcing disappointing first-quarter earnings earlier on Thursday, the miner lowered its 2022 hashrate guidance to 30-32 exahash per second (EH/s) from its previous outlook of 40-42 EH/s, and now sees total power of about 1 gigawatt versus previous guidance of between 1.2 and 1.3 gigawatt (GW).'

Still, likely 10% of the total global hash rate by the end of 2022!

Still, 1050 coins minted a month and 8050 in the HODL ($245m at $30k) and the mcap is $777m - enormous profits to be seen when bitcoin next moves north.

Once again Argo share price proving far more resilient than most of its competitors - whilst they stoop to 52 week lows Argo is still a good 15% above that point. Do you think the market is being rational for once and factoring in its ability to withstand a long bitcoin bear market better than the rest of the field?

Chaebol I make it 2.4 times Argo's mcap - certainly on the surface that looks relatively cheap seeing as Riot is expecting to mine 1500 BTC this quarter whilst Argo is looking at 420BTC.