Member Info for HarChris

By that logic anyone who's portfolio isn't at an all time high is at a loss?

The yoy returns extrapolated over a period of 5 years+ is what matters.

Nout wrong with falling in love as long as you are capable of moving on when the time's right.

Why do you say that? BTC was around $20.7k at 16.30 on Friday when the market closed.

Obviously a little wind behind it currently but investors are fully aware that there's far more volatility to come before it likely breaks to the upside.

What are the company assets? The 2300 BTC Argo held + the mining equipment and infrastructure? The value can change very rapidly and the BTC held is reducing each month.

The assets are too dependent on the price of a volatile asset to claim the market cap is below the company's assets however as you say that can change in the blink of an eye.

It's possible but there's absolutely nothing to suggest the bottom has been hit.

Maybe they meant a 'tenth' bagger.

This bb is as balanced as they come, many permabulls and permabears as well as traders looking for better entries with a lot of knowledge and unbiased analysis - there's no need for self-appointed saviours.

I agree on that. I'm in the 'do I buy BTC or bitcoin miners' boat - as a trade buying BTC is far safer at $19k than the miners but the upside for the latter is so much higher - it's really a case of how long will BTC stay at unprofitable levels, the longer you think it might stay there the bigger the risk to the indebted miners with less cash on hand.

Sharebel would you mind sharing what else Argo does beyond bitcoin (and zcash mining)? Is it cash generative as that is what's needed in this downturn. Also I didn't realise they were making millions a month either, I kind of assumed they were loss making currently.

Some of what you've written I agree with besides the definitive language - BTC will probably recover and see another bull run, Texas is up and running but there are numerous issues that need ironing out looking at May's update and there's also some risk to the full Phase 1 fit out with bitcoin so low (selling bitcoin was part of the funding strategy).

Ps do you really believe the drop in bitcoin market cap from $1.25T to $400B is somehow the transfer from weak retail hands to strong smarter than smart whales?

'US market finished at 32.5p btw.'

Did it? Arbk closed at $3.72 I thought which is 30.4p when converted.

Bonker you may not be concerned about opening if you're all in and not selling but those of us looking to buy are interested.

BTC was at $20.5k when the US markets closed, with arbk at UK equivalent 30.5p - what will affect Monday's price the most is momentum going into open, if BTC starts falling back to $17k then Arb will probably be <25p. $19.5k? Not too far down from Friday's close.

You've failed to even attempt to understand what I was saying - and these companies don't have the cash available to just start buying thousands of bitcoin whereas much of the costs to mine are already sunk.

'Ain't it cheaper to buy the bitcoins instead of mining them.'

Sure, temporarily, but as machines start being switched off the difficulty will come right down and those still mining will start minting many more coins than before. For example if company X's operations cost $12.5m in total and they are mining 500 coins a month then technically each coin is costing ~$25k to mine, but if difficulty reduces by half company X is now mining 1000 coins at a cost of $12.5m so the price to mint each coin is now just $12.5k - they can start selling them for $18k and be profitable.

Others that can withstand an operational loss for a little while will continue to mine and hold in the hope that bitcoin rebounds and they can then sell for a tidy profit once the cash runway is depleted.

Four months is going to feel like two years, bear markets are tough - of course it could be many months either side of that too. If markets start recovering before October then Argo's share price in the 20s is going to multibag, if it goes the other it may never fully recover. That's the risk at this stage.

So much pressure was placed on PW not to go in too hard with the equity raises in 2020 and to commit to no more dilutive financing - what a difference a big chunky raise at 75p at the start of the year would have made now.

It's hard to see bitcoin recover in the very near term because there are just too many red flags - there is going to be more crypto lenders like Celsius going to the ground, tens of thousands of bitcoin will be dumped by miners to keep the lights on and there will be tons of margin calls. + US markets looking wobblier than they did in March 2020.

Personally I'm going to try to sit on the sidelines for at least a few weeks and then think very carefully about which miners to take a further risk on.

I think you're right, it can't go to zero or at least won't in the next decade but even $18k for six months will make many of the miners uninvestable on the flip side (zero HODL and debt up too their eye balls)

Hexam let's be honest, either these people you're referring to aren't very bright and don't understand the risks or they are just trying to make themselves feel a bit better about the situation.

I'm with you, I think bitcoin will recover but it's hard to see it happening until the US markets start recovering.

Things could start getting interesting but it's still a bit early for that. Don't forget until recently miners weren't selling a single bitcoin, they had enough funds to run operations through placings and borrowings. I suppose now the small miners with no BTC holding will start unplugging machines and the listed miners will choose between selling their HODL and switching off machines. A few months without any BTC recovery and pressure will start building enormously.

I guess it recovers when broadly speaking there is a consensus that the bottom is in and investors feel happy buying and institutions consider it a chance to build a position - I imagine they'll be weeks of volatility before that occurs.

poorinvestor is simply doing what Saylor told him to do but hasn't quite committed fully - if he had there wouldn't be a garage to move into if this goes tits up.