Member Info for HarChris

Thanks Hexam. One question... how many years are the machines depreciated across and how does that compare to the actual amount of time those machines run at full or near to full efficiency?

Corz are now at ~3550BTC a quarter so will be looking more like $35k bitcoin breakeven all other things staying equal.

CaptainSwag's 'salad' usage has well and truly infiltrated your own psyche WBAFC, are you using it in conversations at the surgery too?!

To be fair you know why Hut8 is up 50% in just seven trading days... because they've kept their entire HODL and bitcoin has ticked up. They are still walking a tightrope and if bitcoin drops back to $20k that gain will disappear rather quickly.

It's hard to look at the pay rise as anything other than a big sharp knife in the back. So far my summary of David's tenure is this:

29th July 2021, announced as new CEO

19th Oct 2021, officially starts job at ncyt

25th Jan 2022, oversees first trading update after 100 days in the job, 2022 guidance vague but expects covid sales to reduce by ~50%, partially offset by new covid products coming on stream end of year so ~£65m-£70m expected in 2022. Deeper strategy to come in April.

28th April 2022 - Immediate sharp downgrade to full year revenues to £35m-£40m countered with the vague target of >£100m revenue per year in five years

7th July 2022 - Second trading update, sharp downgrade AGAIN to ~£25m. Covid revs fell from £10.1m in Q1 to £2.9m in Q2 and even more worryingly non covid revs from £3m to £0.5m.

So the big question is, can David achieve the extraordinary and make it a record three out of three downgrades in a row???

I know it's not sensible to avoid watching it this time around but just couldn't bring myself to today - sounds like i've not missed much!

Nobody knows marc, many expect real 'fear' type capitulations before the bottom is in but that but no one knows what course it will take. BMN went lower than most (even trolls who don't believe what they write) would have ever have thought possible given the operational improvements and healthy V price - if Q2 is as strong as many us are hoping then there's reason to have confidence that we've seen the worst of it here.

Once the Chinese infrastructure push kicks in alongside ever more V being absorbed from vrfb adoption we should see V bottoming and start to reverse - that will certainly put much of the BMN related fear to bed.

Wealth helps you live longer vs poverty/destitution for a whole variety of reasons, excessive wealth won't lead you to live longer than moderate wealth however. In fact what all gerontologists agree on is a major contributory factor and possibly the most important factor to a long and healthy life is stress management - being able to deal with stressful events adequately and maintaining a positive disposition throughout life is key.

Good to see a solid rebound whilst the markets recover somewhat but it's hard to see any real momentum in bitcoin until the miners start holding onto more of their coins again. For now you would imagine most public miners will sell as much as possible on any recovery to ensure liquidity well into 2023.

Very good in terms of survival but less bullish for bitcoin short term.

Xenor, I only bought in after the big £55m contract win. I didn't rush to buy as I know how irrational the markets are at the moment but I did buy at 14.5p and then 13.25p a few days later so like you am quickly underwater. But that is the reality of the markets at the moment, big contract wins do nothing and any hint of bad news and you're suddenly quickly 50% down.

£50m mcap / 30p share price is evidently achievable in the not too distant future, patience will be required though.

So because the share price hasn't reacted in the way you expected it to over the past two weeks something obviously isn't right and the board is toxic? Maybe the issue is with you expecting instant returns in a very challenging market environment.

Use some of the debt facility, free the share price up to motor then look to do a small placing at 25p+ to bolster the finances.

No need to raise at such an artificially low share price unless forced to.

Those figures are somewhat conservative what with the weakening Rand and the supposedly elevated price in the US (and ~47% sales). We can err on the side of caution and still the market cap looks detached from reality.

Still a good few unknowns and only half way through the year but an estimate can at least be formed at this point
2022 revenue ~ $190m, EBITDA $60m and profit before tax ~$25m

Nah this is driven down by the current chaos on AIM as well as unwarranted fear of a raise this time around:

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1547228505921970178

Core Scientific announced they had powered down 100% of machines in Texas as of a few days ago - I believe Texas makes up 15% of their hash rate and their daily coins mined has dropped since from ~ 40 a day to ~ 36.5, in line with what you'd expect from that announcement.

I guess that's the benefit of only 15% of your power coming from the state.

'Smart growth' is proving to simply be 'slow growth'.

I don't buy the fear around a cash raise - I'm confident the company have a strong enough standing now to raise debt capital to see them through the next 12 months by which time TGR should be in a very different position altogether. If at a worst case they are forced to do a small placing to tie them over then it's not that big a deal.

Fear gripping the market right now like it hasn't before but there is a big opportunity here in my opinion once the black clouds clear.

So is this going to be a recurring problem every summer? Texas isn't going to cool down over the coming years that's for sure.

We don't really know any of the miners' all in sustaining costs, only rough estimates. I'm focusing now on those with the least current liabilities. Hut8 for example is still HODLing all its bitcoin so is evidently no where near the point of distress like some of the other miners possible are (think Corz dumping more than 75% of its holding, the big sell off by bitfarms and also Argo too).

Personally to answer your question I'm not buying any miners currently. I had shares in Corz and Riot but sold the former at a loss and will only buy others if we see capitulation in the coming months or we see a miner go under which causes short term panic across the space.

That's rubbish I'm afraid Stnz. Unless you think bitcoin is finished (I'm assuming you don't) then discerning between miners is crucial. If bitcoin remains low, say sub $20k for an extended period of time then we are going to see winners as well as losers. A number of things will happen: a) machines will start being turned off, b) rigs and equipment may need to be sold in order to keep the lights on, c) some public miners may be acquired on the cheap, d) some may go under with administrators selling off their assets on the cheap. On top of this global hash rate will be lower than it is currently.

Can you see how those with the best balance sheet could set themselves up perfectly for the next bull run? Of course there would need to be another bull run soon enough that those winners too didn't become distressed themselves (after acquiring other miners or increasing their own hashrate, even if on the cheap). But yes there are certain different risk profiles for each of the miners; riot, mara, hut8, corz, argo etc and which ones you buy depends on how you think the next 12 months is going to play out.