Member Info for HarChris

For me what's most important is to see revenues begin to pick up organically through the rest of 2022 without too much of a dent in the cash pile... if ncyt manage to secure strong foundations then there's absolutely no doubt that the business will grow substantially once M&A ramps up, whenever that is.

Lack of recent business has absolutely torn sentiment and confidence to shreds but we are still in the enviable position of having an enormous amount of capital at our disposal with a further cash injection from the DHSC dispute likely further down the road.

Fundamentally not much has changed, the balance sheet is pretty much spotless, what with a massive cash pile and £0 debt, but we will need to see some green shoots on the revenue front before there's much chance of a rally in the share price.

Barring a total **** up from management over the next few years it's simply a case of when not if things pick up here.

Kaeren, wasn't the £100m revenues a year DA stated could be achieved within 5 years meant to come from organic growth, sans M&A?

Let's go back to say, early April. BTC was in the $42k - $46k range, Argo was 70-75p range, hash rate was about where it is today, Argo was mining about 165 coins a month.

All predictions back then were for global hash rate to reach at least 300EHs by the end of the year so now there's the potential for Argo to grow its hash power through to the end of the year at a relatively fast speed to global hash rate and if BTC flirts with a sustained move north to something as achievable as that $42k-$46k range from early April then we should see Argo catch alight and push well past a pound.

Very good risk/reward in play through H2 now as long as Argo manages to increase its mined bitcoin month on month.

So by your logic @cindercone BMN isn't undervalued and yet you think there's the potential for a near term re-rate? So for BMN to be fairly valued currently you must also think there's a decent chance that BMN will soon drop to 3p too?

Evidently it would take far less to go right for BMN to be back at say 15p (almost 200% rise) than it would take to go wrong for BMN to end up at 2.8p (50% fall) and in my view that makes BMN undervalued with a very positive risk/reward on offer.

For me it's a smaller holding than I had throughout 2020 and most of 2021 and is simply a case of waiting for the tide to turn and revenues to start increasing and for some momentum to build once again. Or for the dispute to be resolved and making a decision based on share price move following that.

It's dull but i'm less engaged with the day to day research now and am just taking a broad big picture.

Do you think the MMs are holding it here to allow Amers to exit at break even?

It's quite a simple analysis if you take 5 minutes to look at the SP Angel broker notes - all it takes is V forecasts, Bushveld production and cost forecasts to come to an easy conclusion of solid yearly profits that gives BMN a valuation of £400m, say.

That's without higher margin electrolyte and added value from BE priced in.

They aren't on AIM.

I guess a Bitcoin recovery is starting to be priced in - if it happens suddenly that difference in HODL becomes significant at $50K+

Well Riot have 6700 BTC in hodl so that’s one thing you’re missing straight off the bat.

I don't want to be one of those types who only appears when times are bad and looking for am even better entry so just here to say things are looking up chaps and chappesses! Hoping you get some good July numbers this week.

They do not have to release it the day they cross the threshold - if they were planning to sell a whole lot more wouldn't it be in their interest to hold off and release a 13% or 12% TR1 later this week?

Okay Calamari I will qualify that by saying from all the information we have it's highly likely BMN have been profitable throughout 2022 but we won't know for absolute certain until the half year report.

'Whether BMN "get rich quick or die trying" is an open question. Just an opinion I think it is improbable that their finances are going to improve enough and quickly enough to avoid some form of dilution / capital restructuring.'

BMN have been profitable throughout 2022 and the price in the US is still at a whopping $54/kg. The downtrend in Chinese and European V is disappointing and there is certainly the potential need to raise cash at some point in 2023 but to say it's 'improbable' that their finances are going to improve quickly enough to avoid this situation is just downright scare mongering crap.

We do need US prices to hold / European to pick up a little to be sitting comfortably financially but the outlook is far, far rosier than hxul is attempting to portray.

Bonker there's still absolutely enormous upside if management hit the 2022 production target and end of year run rate of ~5200mtV and something is done to finally reverse the ever growing negative sentiment. We're talking production levels almost double what they were in 2019 when the share price almost hit 50p. We're also finally entering the mass adoption vrfb phase too.

Longer to wait again frustratingly sure and a lot of work for the company to do but with prices in the US holding up so well and profit being made all is certainly not lost.

Well perhaps focus on the sensible comments on here rather than jumping on a silly one to shoehorn in your negativity...

Winning the dispute is not guaranteed. There.

'Because they want to sound to be in control when the reality is they haven’t got a clue. Why couldn’t they say that in an rns? It’s not fact based, it’s an opinion.'

You're quite wrong there... they stated 'strong grounds to assert its contractual rights' in numerous rns' including one dated 21st May 2021, another on 22 June 2021 all the way up to the most recent rns called 'DHSC dispute update' where they stated 'The Company continues to believe it has strong grounds to defend the claim and assert its contractual rights, including recovering outstanding sums due from the DHSC under the counterclaim.'

Of course they are going to say that and must think it or they wouldn't be fighting but for you to say it's merely an opinion because they won't claim it in an rns is so ridiculously far off the mark it's laughable.

I have a decent enough grasp on most of the miners and their reactions to bitcoin price now. For example Hut8 reacts the most to changes in the bitcoin price due to continuing to HODL and therefore seeing the biggest change in their NAV based on bitcoin movements (for example with 7406 coins all it takes is a move to $45k for HODL to reach market cap). Whilst this strategy obviously can't continue indefinitely it does mean that any green shoots for bitcoin will see relatively large share price moves for Hut8.

Corz has also been seeing sharper moves, especially to the downside when bitcoin becomes bearish again and this is evidently a sign that they are the most threatened by a drawn out bear market and one of the most likely to go to the ground. However they sold 7200 BTC last month at an average of $23k which has slightly reduced its share price volatility - now its upside if bitcoin rallies has been reduced but if bitcoin were to sink back to $17k the risk of forced selling is also vastly diminished near term.

As this bitcoin bear market continues and different strategies unfold it should be possible to make clear discernible trading decisions off the back of any meaningful bitcoin price moves.

As for CLSK it isn't one i've paid any attention to so will have to do my own research on that front it seems!

What's been 'priced in' from about 150p is a relative level of failure, what is never priced in obviously is the absolute worst case scenario and what we've seen is more or less that, performance below what anyone really thought was possible (revenue dropping as sharply as it has).

Again what is priced in is relative failure - basically treading water for the next few years/cash dwindling to around £60m. Of course things can get worse, they always can, but the more failure that is priced in the less it takes for the reverse to happen as expectations become lower and lower. The market is giving novacyt no chance of growing into a £100m revenue business which seems fair right now but any sign of a turnaround and of that aim being a possible reality and the share price will recover very quickly.

I also accept I've said this before, probably word for word at 130p many months ago and we find ourselves at new all time lows so hey I deserve some criticism. Not keen on any arguments with you byp, so all the best!