Member Info for HarChris

I'm not currently invested here but just wanted to say that I've never seen a less subtle 'i'm ALL in here but just voicing my concerns' cover for 'I sold out and want to justify that decision' .

Never. I find it quite humorous!

Interestingly BTC is only $1000 / 6% above the 52 week low set on 18th June whilst Ethereum is $700 / 80% above its 52 week low set on the same date.

CS I'd go as far as to say it's 80:20 sentiment to fundamentals. Money is made on AIM through speculation and realistic ambition, i.e it's not the achieving of a landmark event but the hype around it that sends a share price skyward and same with the reverse, there's absolutely nothing worse than rudderless communication and sloth like energy because that generates zero hype and interest. It's why the saying revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, cash is king simply doesn't hold on AIM (at least in the short term), the share price would be far higher now if we were burning through the cash pile but picking up business along the way and putting out plenty of rns' detailing the contract wins.

You're the biggest mug of all because you don't think it's going to recover and yet refuse to sell, that's a pathological inability to cut your losses. You've now mentioned selling six or seven times over the past two or three months but you simply can't bring yourself to do it.

I see it differently. Yes it's an AIM learning curve for sure but it's a lesson in realising how much the AIM market overshoots/undershoots the larger, more stable indexes. So when the macroeceonomic outlook is rosy there's potentially far bigger returns to be made on AIM but the reverse is true too, when outlook turns negative liquidity absolutely dries up and share prices drop to levels one wouldn't think imaginable a matter of months prior.

'Great news re KOURTNEY KARDASHIAN BARKER partnering with Boohoo!'

Thanks for highlighting just how important avacta is compared with your average company!

Icecool's reasoning is exactly the same as mine, we've seen it time and time again over the past year.

Besides breathtaking results that the market simply can't ignore what we see here is sell on news and buy back as the anticipation of news builds up once again - hopefully we're close to the bottom now and we'll see a much more meaningful rise into what will hopefully be the MOAR (mother of all rns')

Maybe this is unfair but it does feel like whatever the news you're going to come at it with a negative slant nowadays CS.

Looks a good appointment to me.

Thank you AB for that honest and fair feedback (as ever).

As we know the cost to mine a single BTC has been much higher than $20k for some time, does this delay in intel machines keep Argo running at a substantial loss all the way into at least Q1 now (assuming BTC still in this $18k-$21k range) and does that bring into play any substantial near term risks? I did notice that the Galaxy Digital Loan has been reduced significantly which I assume takes some pressure off...

Amazing how volatile the US mining companies are in particular - we've seen Hut8 for example go from 1.66 on 30th June to an intraday high of 4.77 on 15th August and back to 2.53 today. All off the back of a fairly modest BTC move and fall back. I imagine the volatility only gets bigger the longer this bear market continues.

Having been away for a little bit could someone update me on what's changed for Argo?

From what I can see another month or so has passed, difficulty has increased back to what it was in April when BTC was $40k (although to be fair it never dropped all that much anyway) and Argo is still struggling on a BTC mined to EH basis.

Still less than three months since BTC dropped to this <$20k level but are we not now entering the 'things are going to get real difficult real quick stage' if BTC fails to push out of this low range in a month or two? For most miners that is, not just Argo...

I wouldn't bother trying to engage Kaeren, there is no cognisance behind these accounts.

But surely you don't think it's that cut and dry (DHSC just trying to pull an obvious fast one) and yet still nervous of the outcome going against us? I'm not blind to the fact it might but I believe the same narrative as you and hence at least think the odds of a positive outcome for novacyt is extremely high.

'there seem to be other pcr kits that are more accurate - and it may be that they wanted to replace ncyt stuff with them and then wanted a way out of paying for the stuff they already had.'

Sure but that firmly puts the DHSC in the wrong then.

It would be disingenuous to pretend I could accurately answer that Amers. It would certainly depend on whether or not we had turned things around operationally, had begun seeing revenue sharply increasing and whether or not we were delivering free cash flow again.

But taking your £160m figure, well, it's rather hard to picture a situation where the uncertainty of the dispute is behind us, we've won it, we have £160m cash, there's anticipation surround m&a deals and we're not valued at least say £200m (3 times where we are today).

Kicking on from there would require strong management.

All the interesting posts over the past few days merely adds further weight to what all of us have thought for a long while, that it would be highly surprising if ncyt were to lose this case.

And yet the share price has the polar opposite priced in. Take the £99.6m market cap, subtract £11m for the LTIP repayment and take ~ £5m cash burn in order to take a conservative approach, that puts novacyt at £83m cash.

Following DRBs calculations re the corp tax and VAT rebates we would receive it's very easy to argue that a full loss of the dispute in its entirety (once share price has settled a month or so later) is already priced in but what can't be argued is that certainly a loss of some degree is being heavily priced in.

And yet... the thought of a judge coming down on the side of the DHSC in this instance is such a tough one to imagine.

Tis a mystery indeed Kaeren.

EKF is not a great comparator. Firstly they were far more established that novacyt beofre covid, with revenue of £45m and a market cap of £160m. They have also posted profit for the past five years.

For all their m&a and proactivity they're still down 45% YTD and barely higher than what they were pre covid.

The rest of us are at least open to all possibilities - most likely things will pick up in time, most likely we'll get some sort of positive outcome from the dispute but we might not, it could get worse, we could lose the dispute, revenue may continue to stay muted etc

It's your contradictory 'i'm a novice' and your seeming certainty in your opinions that is most annoying.

You are so totally 100% dictated by the share price that there is no way in hell of you ever being able to see the possibility of such a turnaround here and that's fair enough.

I remember you being quite positive after the LTIP landed, absolutely no mention of it being unachievable but now you're so certain because of a bad six months. You're like the guy who sees his football team drop to the bottom of the league after 5 games and confidently states that they are going to get relegated and relegated again and before long they are going to go into administration and be wound up - doomed I tell ye!

What are you talking about? The new LTIP is very fairly set taking into consideration the current cash position and (according to the management themselves) their confidence in winning the dispute and significantly bolstering that cash position.

So far it looks a long way off but that's due to their own failure over the past six months to push the business on sans covid revenue and that's exactly what an LTIP should do, reward better than expected performance.

Still achievable but a lot of work needs to be done to get anywhere close + win the dispute.

Timeline:
29 September - New DHSC contract signed
29 January - Novacyt confirms they are in active discussions to extend the contract.
Q1 2021 - continues to supply to the DHSC, ~£36m of sales

So from that we can at least conclude that 'The tests didn’t work / reagents were faulty / W’s were faulty ncyt' does not hold true four months in - hard to then make the leap that this was then discovered in the following three months.

Was there a reason stated as to why the payment was paused last year? Novacyt had more than enough cash to pay the, what was it, £6.5m?

Also good to see a reversal on the Bourse - up almost 3% now.