Member Info for HarChris

Q3 results, not November update - every other miner has put them out, most were weeks ago.

It's well delayed now.

In all fairness it has held up remarkably well, today was the day I expected it to go sub 5p.

I don’t think Fed i. rate decision is as important as what’s happening here specifically so it’s all eyes on the November update and Q3 - if they’re bad (or don’t come this week) then we’re seeing a big sell off, if there’s a bit of light relief maybe small upside.

'What is their debt figure PI?'

I genuinely believe PI throws almost his entire wealth into Argo with virtually no grasp of the financials, financials which are slowly revealed to him over time by us on here.

Yeah I'm happy to clarify - total liabilities $168m but debt is $143m from the last quarterlies ($54m short term + $89m long term). Short term debt should be a tad lower so call it $135m debt.

So I'll repeat my point... if a buyer were to offer 12p they would essentially be paying $75m + ~$135-$140m - that is not going to be attractive to any buyer that already has facilities in place and can get 2.5EH/s for $35m max.

And nobody without facilities is going to be able to raise that sort of money to be able to absorb all that debt and last it out til the next bear market (also need to absorb $3m cash burn a month too at $17k come Feb/March.)

It might be in NYDig's interest to keep Argo afloat but let's remember this:

A. Amendment to Existing Equipment Financing Agreement

The Company has executed a non-binding letter of intent ("NYDIG LOI") to amend its existing equipment financing agreement with an affiliate of New York Digital Investment Group LLC ("NYDIG"). This amendment releases approximately £5.0 million ($5.7 million) of restricted cash and modifies the amortisation schedule for the Company's existing loans. The transaction significantly reduces the Company's debt service payments and links future payments for NYDIG loans used to finance purchases of digital asset mining equipment to network mining profitability. In exchange, the Company will provide NYDIG with an expanded collateral package. The amended equipment financing agreement is expected to contain customary covenants for an agreement of its type. The Company and NYDIG expect to close the amendment within the next few weeks, and a further announcement will be made in due course.

'expect to close the amendment within the next few weeks and a further announcement will be made in due course' ... that was over 9 weeks ago now.

https://ycharts.com/companies/ARBK/debt_equity_ratio

Liabilities of $168m from Q2 results, I went with $160m here but granted maybe it's a tad lower now. Points still stand though.

The numbers simply don't add up. Every miner is doing everything they can to reduce their debts, there is no chance they are going to dilute themselves at 104 week lows in order to take on Argo's huge debt for a small increase in hash rate (+admittedly good facilities). No chance.

2.5EH/s will cost $35m max in this market.

DS, how much for though? Argo's debt stands at about $160m, if you buy out Argo for 12p a share (£60m/$75m market cap) you're essentially paying $235m for Argo's 2.5EH/s plus facilities.

New machines are currently going for $15m per EH , used machines probably half that. For the likes of Riot (GW facilities) and others that already have capacity there's absolutely no chance they are going to take on Argo's debt for a measly 2.5EH/s.

Oh s***, share price just went from 82p to 81p - pump and dump confirmed.

Fair enough, let's discuss Q3 numbers then... oh wait.
What bout November's numbers? Nope, nothing.

And you probably don't understand this as you understand nothing about the sector but the way the bitcoin algorithm works EVERY other miner is technically a competitor and what happens across the sector is very informative to what will happen here to ARGO.

'I actually thought that was one of Mara's better updates. Still wouldn't touch them though.'

Really? Last month they mined 615 and this month 472, that's the steepest month on month decline by a long shot just when it looked like they might have turned a corner on that front...

But yeah positive in terms of paying off more of the borrowings and increasing the unrestricted HODL

And to be honest whilst the market is punishing them for their high debt (in what is a very bearish market) I don't think there's much chance of them running into trouble personally - tempted to open a position if share price weakens further.

Nobody talks about Argo on here anymore because there's nothing to discuss, they've stopped reporting. Five or six of us discuss all things bitcoin and bitcoin mining punctuated by your pathetic rampy and downright baseless posts.

You're the one causing damage from your BS.

Yeah agreed and that large debt pile is certainly starting to weigh on the share price too. Like you said Fred at Mara has only priced in low bitcoin to April next year but if it goes on into 2024 Mara are in far worse shape than the low debt miners clsk/bitfarms/riot.

Mara market cap today $676m, one month ago $1.23B
Riot market cap today $732m, one month ago $959m

Quite the turnaround in a short space of time. I doubt the bear market will get so bad as to push Mara to distress but certainly a bigger risk than some of the others.

Modest increases in V are not something to be sniffed at, as it was we were already looking at a highly profitable year ahead, any increases will see those profits balloon. With Europe rising again to about $33.5/kg, US at about $43/kg and China (and therefore rest of Asia?) at $37/kg we're now looking at the very real chance of profits before tax reaching $40m next year. Further rises and $50m will be a very real possibility.

Not bad for a company valued at $75m, eh?

Just 472 bitcoin mined, very low 67 per EH (clsk 99 per EH, bitfarms 104 per EH for comparison).

Positives include reducing some borrowings so non restricted HODL has risen to 4200 BTC. HODL continuing to rise and now at 11757.

Too many red flags for me though and although most of it needs to be repaid 2024 or later it's never nice to see debt eclipsing market cap.

My 200EH/s assumes hash rate falling off elsewhere but is perhaps a tad optimistic (unless bitcoin tumbles), more likely see it level off at the 220EH/s level.

We are very, very soon to see Corz' hash rate go offline. Share price is back at all time lows and all you've got left is the ride or die hanger onners that won't bother selling when 98% down. At end of Oct they had $32m cash + 62 BTC = $33m liquidity. Cash burn is currently $17m a month so they'll run out of funding by the end of December and with an mcap of just $46m they have no ability to raise.

We're talking 5% of the entire network going offline in one fell swoop so very soon we'll be looking at around 200EH/s total hash rate and a significant easing on margins for all the remaining miners.

Yes Caveman that bet was with me!

We agreed that whoever lost would never post on here again... PI100 lasted just two hours.

I watched Riot from $14 and finally pulled the trigger at $3.90, I watched bitfarms from $2 and pulled the trigger at $0.52.
I think that's fairly patient!

Personally I don't think they go much lower than this because even if BTC goes $14k others will simply drop off, difficulty falls further and those surviving will generate cash at even lower levels through higher revenue. Any further expansion, i.e buying up distressed assets will bring that breakeven cash cost down even further. Yes those with substantial HODL will be marked down slightly but that's it.

Certainly not calling the bottom here but I don't think we're a million miles off whatever happens to bitcoin.

It's kind of win/win now for the strongest miners around this level.

Well bitfarms finally reached my target price so I've bought some. Would prefer to buy miners with substantial cash on hand but feel like there's a lot on offer for $102m mcap. Likely goes even lower but can't justify spending so much time following the sector without some skin in the game!

Har har har yes I've missed the boat! Currently trading at 5.7p over on the nasdaq.