Member Info for HarChris

Well at least I'm always happy to be corrected and concede immediately when I'm wrong. $96.66m was the amount originally loaned to Argo.

Oh fair enough, they either didn't drawdown the full amount or have already paid some off. This article says $84m so it sounds like PI's more or less right on that:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-11/bitcoin-btc-argo-miner-argo-s-shares-plummet-as-liquidity-concern-rises?leadSource=uverify%20wall

A bit more than that, it's just shy of $100m to NYDIG.

Of course that’s assuming Argo is unable to make its debt repayments, that shouldn’t be the case at the moment.

Why would they pay money to buy Argo out when it means taking on all the other liabilities too? No instead they’ll surely be pushing for administrators to take control and essentially give them Helios as first-in-line creditors.

The amazing thing is even up until last week rampers were STILL respected on here more than the rest of us trying to analyse the actual information already out there. Absolutely baseless posts such as Argo being back at 30p within weeks or that there was no chance of Argo going bankrupt would get tons of recommends whilst posters with a more negative stance (yet posting factual information) were told to get stuffed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMzd40i8TfA

I did although I also bought and sold multiple times on the way down (like many on here I suspect). Up overall but my profits were cut by about three quarters.

'Bmn too much debt no profit in sight need grow revenue,'

No profit in sight? Definitely wrong on that front.

So I think the main loans are the March 2022 NYDIG loan of $26.66m, four years at an annual 8.25% interest rate - $37m due in total.
Then in May the painful $70m NYDIG loan at 12% annual interest, repaid in stages in 2024 coming to ~ $88m
And then you have the $40m senior notes at 8.75% interest due 2026 costing a total $56m

The question is how much (if any) are they paying in interest repayments monthly? I'm assuming if they were to mothball operations they'd still be something like a $1m cash burn a month which would likely only give them til mid-late 2023 (if finances are as tight as they appear to be).

Repaying $88m (less any interest paid prior) is one hell of an ask by 2024.

I mean, I've made it clear numerous times that I think the odds of Argo going bankrupt in this bear cycle are greater than 50/50, previously stating something like 70/30 for and against. Whilst I certainly don't think the suspension is for some positive reason like a takeover I'd also be highly surprised if they've already run out of cash or are forced into administration this soon - I had 4-5 months as a best estimate (3-4 months now as that was a month ago). If it's less than there's been more deception from management once again.

I would obviously prefer to be in Chaebol's position over yours but the fat lady hasn't sung just yet - intrigued to find out more tomorrow.

Michael Saylor should never ever be listened to again after this advice in March 2021 with bitcoin at $56k. He's the Liberace of snake oil salesmen.

https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1402830012391243779?lang=en-GB

It's amazing to think it was merely months ago that a non dilutive raise would be deemed a positive to the market - things change so quickly in cryptoland.

That's not the point Chae, the upside for Mara is evidently greater than it is for clsk and hut8 and hence as soon as we go risk on Mara sees the strongest rallies. But as soon as we go risk off Mara tanks hardest and may go far lower yet.

Mara's debt is almost entirely long term however so shouldn't be viewed on as a major issue whatsoever. Bitfarms is another with relatively high debt (and a much higher percentage of short term debt at that) and hence they are down almost as much as Mara... they have reduced their debt considerably however in the past month which shows they recognise what a threat it is to all miners.

Argo took on a mass of debt just before debt became a dirty word in the industry, so what you basically had was Argo taking on huge debt with NYDIG in March and May and as soon as August came around every company (including Argo) were doing everything they could to reduce their debt instead.

And if you want to know why the Mara share price is suffering relatively to all the others it's exactly that, higher debt. They're now down 50% in the past month, considerably more than any of the other non distressed miners.

What's starting to be priced in is a bear market right up to the next halving.

'Fred explained Argo and pw would very unlikely survive he gave more credence to corz and said Mike at corz knows how to restructure debt , maybe that’s what Mike’s been doing for the last 2 months because on paper corz is a lot sicker than Argo is.'

No, Fred's simply wrong or at least said this prior to their share price collapse. Restructuring is absolutely impossible and I doubt there's even any talks going on at this stage. They haven't put out a November update and they stopped meeting debt obligations in October - I imagine the machines will stop running as soon as they stop paying their energy bills. In a sector with limited access to debt capital I see the debt to equity ratio as one of the the most, if not the most, useful metric. They are as follows:

Corz 20:1
Argo 3.5:1

Both far too high to be sustainable in this industry at this point in time but one of them, Argo, still has some options (unless the financials are worse than PW has been letting on), Corz could double the total shares issued and still only be able to pay off 5% of their debts.

A few for comparison:
CleanSpark 1:3
Riot 1:6
Hut8 1: 3.5

Anyone thinking Argo is going to be bought out is deluded. In a sector that is already on its knees and needing life support why on earth would an entity with say, $60m, buy Argo (and all its debt) when they could invest in other miners with healthy balance sheets and cash generation? Well they wouldn't. Miners like CleanSpark are valued at $100m and the difference is light and day.

We have to wait to see what the true financial situation is but the fact remains they failed to raise enough during the bull market, failed to expand enough to bring down their cash costs through an increase in scale, failed to sort a ppa and took on too much debt. A combination of these factors will likely be the death of Argo.

Some of you are starting to show obsessive tendencies towards me now, not healthy.

And no, I like to talk about this company and discuss facts but all this has done is lead to rampant speculation, so for me it’s pointless. If there’s clarity and new news or the conversation turns to Bitcoin or Bitcoin miners more generally (in which I am investing in and which also affects Argo too) then I’m sure I’ll be joining in.

You'll find me posting less from here on out. I've spent plenty of time discussing Argo and the disproportionate risk to reward on offer since the strategic investor dropped out followed by the FTX fiasco and BTC at a lowly $17k. At this stage there's little to discuss, I highly doubt that the suspension is due to positive reasons but as ever we're left in the dark with nothing but speculation to fill the void.

Previously my comments were intended to pass on research and help others make a more informed decision (whilst learning stuff myself from the knowledgeable posters on here) but now we're in this situation with no trading decisions to be made there's little benefit to spending time on here.

I'm sure next week is going to be a tad stressful waiting for more information to be released, hope you all get the result you're after.

Jesus Christ I've heard it all now, this is entirely George Soros' fault, not Peter's at all. Peter's silence is testament to the strong brave stoic individual he is. Most of the other miners that survive, that's different, George likes Mara, and Riot and Bitfarms.

If your post was intentionally ironic then I apologise in advance for it whooshing over my head!

Besides a genuine bull rally to new all time highs there is a limit to how high the share price could rally with, say, $30k BTC because the market knows 100% Argo need to raise funds. At most we'd see about 15p with a raise happening at 12p and further sideways trading and a chance for shorters like Chaebol to exit without too much pain.

It's been my main point for ages now - upside is pretty similar for Argo as it is for the better miners yet with the added risk of losing the lot.