Member Info for HarChris

No there's a major difference PI I'm afraid - NYDIG will be given first dibs over all the assets by the administrators... B.Riley were last in line and therefore going to receive nothing so had an incentive to step in (they're more than doubling their losses in the long term though most likely).

It was $0.24 by the time I'd have been able to short, now it's $0.26. Might have closed out already.

But yeah it's one of the reason I'll probably never short, wouldn't be good for the blood pressure.

This is very interesting. From the article written about Corz last month they had B Riley as last in line to receive payment from administrators. With how much more machines have been marked down recently they now had no chance of being paid back. This was included in the article:

'The company’s bridge notes are issued by B. Riley, a well-known lender in the bitcoin mining space. Bridge notes are short-term loans used until a company secures permanent financing for a project. These are unsecured notes, and B. Riley will likely book a significant loss. '

In essence they are risking more money in an attempt to keep Corz alive and eventually recover the money they are owed - most of what's written in that letter sounds like nonsense to me though and they are haemorrhaging far, far more than $3m a month ($72m supposedly giving them two year's runway) - I believe they are burning about $16m a month.

They've gone from a proposed 27p placing to at best a desperate last ditch attempt of selling their own assets to keep the company alive - that's such a significant climbdown as it is.

It doesn't get more distressed than admitting you've got literally weeks left to survive.

Next month if they don't get funding or bitcoin doesn't rally hard.

That window's gone from what we thought was about five months to one and my 70/30 prediction to now 95/5.

Yes I read it. Are you genuinely trying to tell me that you can't see that the risk has ratcheted up considerably now?

PI you do have a bit of an issue with cognitive reasoning.

You start off by saying you think bitcoin will recover in spring and that Argo has six months of funding (taking them to April). Fine, your reasoning (Ukraine war being over) is a bit flimsy but you think bitcoin will recover in the spring and Argo are funded til then - sure checks out

THEN new revelations reveal that no, Argo is not funded til the spring, in fact they are funded til Christmas max. Does this make you question whether they are going to survive? No for some reason this seems not to compute with you and you carry on saying as long as they make it til the spring all will be fine.

Read below, difficulty isn't dropping by much and will be close to all time highs again after the next adjustment. Argo was haemorrhaging cash at $22k, a rise from $17k to $17.8k ain't going to move the dial.

A relief rally may come soon for some of the miners but Argo isn't going to be a part of that I'm afraid.

Not profitable at industry level no but as machine/rigs costs are already sunk it's still better to continue operating vs switching off and merely paying fixed costs and debt repayments it seems.

There would be a price (given the same difficulty) where the above wouldn't be true though, anywhere from about $12k to $17k depending on the miner.

Certainly in terms of the 12 largest publicly listed miners that make up close to 20% of the total network hash nobody is switching off but expansion at least is slowing considerably (they're all continually downgrading end of year EH targets).

Probably a combination of machines being used to heat homes now the winter is kicking in and the likes of Corz and Argo hanging on a little longer will keep difficulty high so instead of a gradual and consistent decline we'll end up seeing capitulation sometime in 2023 (assuming bitcoin still depressed).

They certainly recognised that the share price had got a bit carried away but more than anything their selling was just sensible risk management.

The far bigger clue that this was going down was the lack of buying from the middle of this year onwards at ~35p, if they were confident in the long term success of the business then they'd have backed it and made millions all over again.

Trying to get more money after already being all in? Jeez good luck fella!

It’s not a binary bet anymore, even if a deal goes through they’ll likely have to give away too much of the business for there to be the possibility of this ever recovering.

Yesterday folk were given a chance to salvage something in the 4s, I highly doubt they’ll get another chance.

My advice would be to stay away from the stock market altogether, especially small caps - it doesn't sound like you're cut out for it.

To be honest I don't remember anyone laughing or ridiculing you when you said you'd be buying between $2.50 and $4, no one else on here is a fan of them but you!

But I do agree you might get that price, partly because they have insufficient collateral to cover their loans if bitcoin goes to $13500 (which you are predicting)

Chaebol anything going on with Mara? Any particular reason they are tanking so much more than most of the other miners?

Lots in the space seem to think Mara will be the first (of the biggest 5 or 6) to show distress if this bear market deepens into 2023.

Sorry for being pedantic Stnz but tomorrow will be a Fed pivot, a pivot refers to any change of course (in this case reducing the hikes) not just switching from tightening to loosening.

red_rag yes 25 bps is very unlikely but there's a lot of recession fears so it's not impossible - expect 50bps though.

Powell is going to raise 50bps, that’s been baked in for a few weeks now, there’s a limit to how many 75bps they could do.

It’s if he shocks the market and goes for just 25bps that we see a massive rally

What and just leave the board to the mindless rampers to repeat the same baseless claims over and over again, potentially sucking others into their loss making misery? No, all of us with something to contribute that are willing to should post on here as they see fit.

That way new folk that stumble across this bb can see all sides and make a more informed decision.

We know Peter's been trying to raise funding since at least AT LEAST 7th October (Rns Strategic Actions to Strengthen the Balance Sheet) but likely for much longer than that. If he wasn't able to sort it pre FTX (9th November) there's no chance he's going to now except on *very* ugly terms.

This is over unless bitcoin soars in the next couple of weeks.