Member Info for HarChris

But yeah the reason I'm not buying anymore is because I think despite what I've just highlighted (more revenue from $10k bitcoin than $17k) in the short term the sector would absolutely s*** itself and these four would be on offer for peanuts. Plus I like having cash on the table.

And if it's only up from here, well, I have a little invested so no need to get greedy!

I see you want mean but I think those four would survive quite comfortably even with bitcoin at $10k, hash rate really would fall off a cliff and the few strong entities like these four would control most of the network hash and still be generating cash!

1000 coins a month at $10k is more revenue than 500 coins at $17k.

The point is nothing has to go right for those four to survive, they will definitely survive besides something very unforeseen occurring - One example would be, say, Saudi Aramco and other energy giants joining the scene and bringing 100EH/s online in the bear market! Another would be company specific, for example losing their PPA, being sued for millions and losing etc but again, would take quite an extreme set of events to cause distress in these four. Hut8 had some bad news recently but with $150m of bitcoin on the balance sheet they are million miles away from getting into trouble.

For others (not naming names) EVERYTHING has to go right.

Didn't proofread that on my phone, couple of horrible typos - sorry!

I've done tonnes of research Hexam and can tall you that the majority are almost certainly going to make it through. I'll give you a very brief run down of my favourites:

Riot - $255m cash on hand at last count + 6900 BTC ($115m) so $370m to expand / manage any slight cash burn.

Hut8 - they are doing all they can to avoid selling any bitcoin but, if the time comes when they think they have to start selling instead of issuing more shares at lows, then they have 8925 + whatever else they mine before that point in liquidatable assets - at current prices $150m, even if bitcoin were to head to $14k that's $126m.

Bitfarms - 2 cents power costs for their Argentina operations, 4 cents Canada, at last count cash cost breakeven at $14300 so generating ~$1.3m a month even in this climate. Previously had high short term debt but paid off $25m of it in November alone and now have total liabilities of ~$80m (half that of Argo + BTC on hand + large ATM in play + generating cash not burning cash)

CLSK - Having expanded so aggressively this year they have brought their cash costs to about breakeven. They are capable of raising up to $200m from their ATM but at current prices that might not be appealing. Still, it's there as an option.

The only way this changes is if loads of new players come into the space and push difficulty up rather than down in 2023. Unlikely but possible I suppose.

As for difficulty going up next adjustment let's wait and see. As I keep repeating Corz are gone very soon, they haven't made either October or November debt payments and have not put out a November update - I think administration will be announced in the coming weeks, maybe coming days and that alone if 5.5% of the total network cash.

The absolute sweet spot for the four or five miners with liquidity on hand is this bitcoin price, $17k, for about 6 more months. What we would see is a roughly a 40-60EH/s drop off (unlikely further as at-home miners become borderline profitable again at around $17k and 190EH/s is my guess) and of that 40-60EH/s about 25EH/s being sold by liquidators from bankrupt bitcoin mining companies to the likes of Mara/Riot/Clsk/Bitfarms/Hut8 - if bitcoin were then to turn those five or six miners will generate tens of millions of dollars in a flash.

It's worth noting also that a small percentage of the global hash will be at-home miners using their ASICs to heat their home (and hence the dual use making it worthwhile), come the spring those machines will be switched off, all things being equal.

I think we're generally talking companies part of the cryptosphere but not publicly listed miners. For example Corz bought blockcap for something like $1.1B and its recently been revalued at $60m.

The problem with acquiring Argo is you need to also absorb the huge cash burn which is something like $3m a month currently, that's today's market cap in just one year at these bitcoin prices.

Nah November results aren’t technically late but if they don’t land tomorrow (in conjunction with the very late Q3) then we’ve got a problem.

Amazed the share price isn’t having a wobble.

There hasn't been much discussion about the reasons the SI backed out of the placing after the LOI. As was said on here at the time, often these LOIs are binding to a degree, especially ones announced by a publicly traded company and yet 3 and a half weeks later the strategic investor walked away.

We collectively appear to have assumed they backed out as 27p wasn't attractive having fallen to 16p yet haven't explored the possibility that the financials are actually worse than we think. Well we'll find out by the end of the week.

It's hard to come up with a possible positive reason for delaying Q3 by this much, why would they? Even if they were close to securing funding that doesn't stop them from issuing standard financial quarterlies, that makes no sense. Okay perhaps if they were about to be bought out that is one positive reason, but that's about it.

On the flip side there's plenty of negative reasons why this would be the case. Also if PW is trying to secure a placing is it smart to delay a standard financial update and spook the market and leave them second guessing what's going on? I don't think so.

I like you Hexam assumed that they have quite a bit more time, at least a good few months before they would need to give the game up but this has left me doubting that theory ever so slightly now.

And I'm fascinated to see if Corz release a November update/what it has to say, this is now the latest it's ever been.

Especially meaningful as their bitcoin mined continues to go up, new record yesterday of 49.4 ((partly due to difficult adjustment)), that's 5.5% of the entire network going offline in one fell swoop *very* soon!

Fair enough, I don't know how to read the trade logs to be honest, I just thought as it shows it at 6.5p it couldn't be both a buy/sell at that price but I'm sure I'm wrong.

As for the trackers perhaps that's what's keeping the share price above 6p, quite a high percentage of shares through ETFs that aren't moving? Very different stateside today... posting new lows again and currently at 5.4p equivalent.

'And HC it looks like Argo still on that link'

No they are on the performance chart dated 9/30/22 - 10/31/2022 but then it says:
'In October, the fund’s performance was value was up 0.09% for the month. During the month, the fund reduced its exposure to the mining segment to about 15.09% through selling its position in Argo Blockchain and marking down its Senior Notes in Core Scientific. '

As the share price is down about 82% since the Strategic Actions rns you'd think IIs were the ones dumping rather than private investors, often the latter are too inexperienced to sell at a loss when they get the chance. But in terms of what's been posted on here all we have I think is this link that shows BLOK had sold all their Argo shares:

https://amplifyetfs.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/BLOK-Chain_Monthly_2022-November.pdf

And to be fair that £108k trade and £69k trade both look buys. Who knows why some people do what they do, maybe they have inside info (!) but no probably just betting on a bit of a bitcoin rally in the lead up to next week's FOMC meeting.

Price currently 5.4p stateside so won't be a leak.

Appreciate that red_rag , it's nice that you can see I don't just have it in for Argo, I just enjoy posting on here and sharing my thoughts.

Whilst personally I think there's almost no chance of rabbit-out-of-hat stuff at this stage, it really wouldn't take too much of a bitcoin rally to suddenly bring sentiment back into the space (especially as the narrative would be 'look we survived FTX and are still here!). Anything like that, even just back firmly to $20k, would boost the share price here and bring investment back to the space which would give PW a fighting chance of raising the funds they are looking for. And of course if bitcoin properly kicked on then Argo lives to fight another day.

As you know many of us on here think the odds are certainly less than 50% but there's still a reasonable chance it happens. GL!

Exactly Hexam, but we should also recognise that with each passing day those odds change.

Around the turn of October, start of November Argo was trading at about 8p with bitcoin in the $20k to $21k range. Around this time I dived in a couple of times and saw value around the 8p mark, with anything below offering excellent value. Why? Because the chance of bitcoin going on a rally towards $25k and beyond within 3-4 months was, at that point, greater than 50% imo. Even at just $21k Argo's cash runway was a good bit longer.

8th November was when the FTX fiasco started playing out and bitcoin crashed to its low of $15480, Argo share price went with it but was back to 8p by the end of the week. Still at this stage we weren't sure what the fallout would be. Four weeks later bitcoin has settled at around $17k and appetite for the sector has dropped to rock bottom.

This has now vastly lowered the chance of bitcoin going on a rally and taking Argo with it and hence the value now at 6p is far worse than when it was 8p at the start of November. Not only that but the longer we have silence the higher the chance that Peter is failing to pull off further funding, as evidenced by the urgency he showed in the previous updates (and yet nothing coming of it). Add the lack of Q3 and together, it starts to paint a rather bleak picture.

And no PI I'm not therefore concluding that Argo is going under, I am gathering all the information to come to a conclusion that the odds are stacked against them right now.

Riot 7th November
Mara 8th November
Hut8 10th November
Bitfarms 14th November
Hive 15th November
Corz 24th November
Last year Argo 1st November

We aren't started discussing this recently when the lateness started to get suspicious - that's the company's fault not mine. This is the time to project confidence if all is well, not hide away.

I do understand that it must be stressful for you with all your money in here and seeing people like me saying that argo are at risk of going under but my comments make no difference to the outcome, Argo's survival relies entirely on bitcoin recovering in the next 2-6 months (we don't know how many til we get Q3 update + November) + any potential last minute funding also giving them an extra bit of cash runway.

I corrected the numbers I stated earlier and was very quick to highlight that I had used the total liabilities figure not total debt (despite them not being too different) and will be careful to not make a mistake like that again.

I think most can see I don't have an agenda. I've been transparent and open about using this BB to talk all things bitcoin and bitcoin mining. I've never shorted a share before and whilst I have discussed doing it for the first time to short Corz, I've never once considered trying to short Argo as I'm not certain they are going under like I am with Corz.

I do however tell it how it is and right now Argo's in a hell of a lot of trouble. I genuinely cannot believe that you think there's no chance of bankruptcy when the last update literally included this:

'While Argo is exploring other financing opportunities, there can be no assurance that any definitive agreements will be signed or that any transactions will be consummated. Should Argo be unsuccessful in completing any further financing, Argo would become cash flow negative in the near term and would need to curtail or cease operations.'

For f*** sake we've had nearly six weeks from that update and we've heard nothing, how much more deluded can you get?

The discussion has basically been what's the reason behind not issuing a Q3 and hence are things so bad that we won't even see a November update? That's probably unlikely but it's certainly a risk factor right now.

Every monthly update for Core Scientific has been the 6th or earlier besides last month where it came out on the 7th. It's the 7th today and as of yet no monthly update...