Member Info for HarChris

It's not a 50/50 shout now and it hasn't been for a while - maybe 25/75 or 30/70

You're conflating two different things again PI as you tend to do. Escape route? I think the person all in on Argo is the one in trouble, not me.

'Blubay, according to HC it is lol.'

Wrong again, never claimed it to be an 'FCA' requirement.

I think it was 825mtV and then slightly more was sold than produced in Q3 so the stockpile should be about 800mtV now.

Peter Wall puts out a video after every update so we'll know very soon...

Oh wait no he stopped doing that when things turned sour.

'Optimism is what brings us all here to invest in companies we have no control over
No one here can say with any certainty what will happen next'

But there was enough facts and information out there already to suggest with a fairly high probability that something like this was going to happen.

In fact I spent this past week discussing the red flag associated with the lack of Q3 report (whilst PI and others shouted 'don't listen, it's fine!!!) and then the shares got suspended - no we can't say what will happen with certainty but very often we can work out what's very likely to happen.

There is absolutely NOTHING positive about this suspension no matter what some might argue on here. But equally it doesn’t change much either (as far as I can tell), if Bitcoin were to recover in the coming months Argo will survive and the share price will open at 100%+ from where it was pre suspension.

It’s basically as we were but without watching the meaningless share price movements between 4p and 7p.

That’s partly true PortfolioPower but most of them have At The Market offerings where the company is able to issue as they deem fit (up to $100m or $200m etc ) so even those without cash are largely secure for now.

Corz, Argo and a couple of the smaller ones like TerraWulf will be gone in 2023 if Bitcoin doesn’t recover though (Corz isn’t even putting out monthly updates anymore).

Well at least it prevents many gamblers on here from doubling up again.

Anyone with an ounce of comprehension knows that's BS. I've always been of the opinion that the cash runway is 4-6 months (from 4 weeks ago) but also see the lack of quarterly update as a big red flag.

The main positive from this update is (i) simply that it landed and (ii) Argo are still operating

I'd be breathing a huge sigh of relief this morning if I was a holder.

Obelix I would love you to share what's so positive about this RNS besides not having gone out of business yet? Pray tell.

Argo first announced that they needed fund to stay in business on the 7th October and today's RNS confirms that as of the 9th December that funding hasn't been forthcoming.

Genuinely love to hear what's caught your eye in case I've missed it.

This puts to bed the speculation that Argo could have already curtailed operations, on that note it's a positive.

Basically back to base case of 'should be able to survive til about Feb/March' although would like to see the quarterlies to make sure there's nothing ugly being hidden.

Poorinvestor whilst you go around getting predictions wrong day in day out and telling people to ignore me let's have a look at my prediction for these numbers a few weeks ago.

'I'll go for 198 mined'

Avoided the worst of it for sure. Bitcoin mined as expected, recent cash from machine sales used to fund operations, no update on funding, slight decrease in Bitcoin holdings.

As you were, a few more months of cash runway still it seems.

For goodness sake, your guess is 250 but you'll be happy with 20% less? Waste of time engaging.

Well it's now all eyes on tomorrow...

Are you all confident we will see an update in the morning? And before anyone says it no, it has never been later. Tomorrow is the seventh business day of the month, the September update was 11th October but that too was the 7th business day.

So PI, you're predicting 250 BTC mined? Boy would I be willing to bet every pound to my name that it's less than that!

Yeah we're definitely in agreement. Obviously taking it to the extremes they all fail 100% and as you say it's just a case of where the breaking point is but my broader point is that without debt (this most applies to Riot, then Hut8) theoretically there's no reason why miners wouldn't survive $5k, revenue wouldn't need to be high at all to simply continue in operations. Would they be worth much though? No they wouldn't (especially those like Hut8 whose HODL, their entire liquidity, would be worth less than a third) so in reality they would still be a fraction of the value they are now (unless one miner owned a ridiculous amount of the network). And yeah that's what I meant re machine manufacturers and supply chains potentially breaking down.

I also agree we should halt this conversation now as whilst I enjoy it very much it's basically us two throwing out interesting hypotheticals to each other whilst the others probably boil over with annoyance! Haha

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'Does anyone see them being given some kind of Debt repayment holiday ? ..or is it lights out at the first non-payment day ?'

It's a good question. Corz are already two months behind on debt repayments and are continuing to operate at full capacity so it's very possible it would benefit their creditors to give them a holiday rather than force them straight into administration.

This is the sort of stuff Peter should be communicating though instead of hiding away.

The reason debt becomes such an issue is generally speaking being unable to make debt payments is why any business goes under (well duh, I know). So given capitulation and no recovery til the next halving you need to work out what the market cap of any miner you're interested would likely be (based on readjusted bitcoin HODL, whether still cash generative etc) and see how that compares to their debt... if equity + liquidity (readjusted after bitcoin fall) still covers debts then you will survive it.

Of course there will always be many unforeseen events so predicting with accuracy is hard but the difference is that now the sector has turned so bearish, all miners will be in 'do whatever you can to make it through to the next bull cycle' mode so the factors that caused Corz' demise (and likely Argo's), namely taking on too much debt vs equity, won't occur now.

It's during boom times that company's get themselves in trouble generally.

Right so in theory pretty much everything I've stated holds true for total collapse even, and i'm talking $5k for 2-3years! As long as the miner hasn't got much debt on the books then difficulty should adjust enough that they continue to generate cash almost no matter how low things go. And they'll pick up ever more hash rate for ever cheaper prices (assuming the machine manufacturers and supply chains haven't broken down).

I think we'd be seeing the four we named mining ~1600 each and still generating $8m a month (with half of the hash bought for peanuts).

Those that have debt however would fold as they'd never be able to pay it back. So that's the difference, suddenly even modest debt would push previously strong miners under.