Member Info for HarChris

negligible* not negligent

Many, many private investors are absolutely unwilling to sell at a loss. For some it feels negligent at say 98% down already, for others it's pure stubbornness. It will be those that are keeping this up at 4p/some index trackers that don't automatically sell.

I suppose (at least theoretically) CPI could come in way under expectations today and we could see the end of the bear market. I still don't think bitcoin would rally high enough to breathe much life back into Argo but it's possible I suppose.

Otherwise we're talking either administration or bankruptcy further down the road - if Argo have to take on more debt and relinquish much of their operations and hash rate then there's virtually no chance they'll ever be able to recover.

They've almost burnt through what we thought would take 5-6 months to burn through in 3 and a half weeks.

Cash cost breakeven is evidently even higher than what Hexam has been calculating.

'Lots of buying going on this morning'

Strange it's 35% down then.

No I don’t believe so, not til it’s confirmed by RNS

And most of all recognise that opportunities to see life changing returns like with Argo in late 20 early 21 don’t come around often but they do come around. Preserve your money and wait for that moment, if you think it’s finally come risk that bit more than you normally would.

Anyone who thinks they understand the market because they’ve seen it all before, doesn’t. Investing/trading is tough and requires making sense of the macro environment, the micro environment, liquidity, sector outlook etc etc at any given time and therefore be able to predict with reasonable accuracy what is going to happen next.

And it’s about being humble and recognising that you really know Jack s*** , the aim is to know just that bit more than the rest, that’s all.

I think we should leave poorinvestor alone and let him ramble away this eve. He told us he had almost all his money in Argo (with a small percentage in Cine) so must be in a state of shock at the moment.

I hope for some good news in the coming days for you fella!

'HC, my figures are what arb are giving and the have been blatantly lying.'

Sure my figures weren't far off yours but at what point are you going to now put two and two together and realise they are really f****? How can you after all this take anything from the RNS at face value?!

Yes, and to have those funds they may have to say the majority of their operations. What are they left with? Well over $100m of debt and a few PH/s of computing power in Quebec?

Yeah going to be worth a fortune.

PI stop for a second and work out what this means - at the very least they are burning through FAR more cash than your calculations were suggesting so how much are they going to need to raise to stay in business for say another 6 months? $30m?!

Whether they go under or not is neither here nor there, Argo as a 'world-leading cryptocurrency miner' is no more and those hoping to get out around 4p or higher are going to be disappointed.

Some of us highlighted the risks but you told us to get stuffed.

Wow so finances really were worse than any of us imagined. Let’s be honest whether shareholders salvage something or not the game for Argo is essentially up if they have to sell off more of their assets simply to see themselves through the following six or so months.

'HC - but now they're finally coming unstuck (hut8), can you elaborate?'

To be fair on further thought they aren't going to come unstuck (in terms of survival) and for now still look one of the safest investments. Problem is their HODL strategy is being funded through their ATM placing so are issuing shares at ever new lows in order to keep hold of their bitcoin. If this goes on through 2023 there will be such an increased share float that even when/if bitcoin recovers the share price won't be all that much higher than it is now.

There must come a point soon where they are forced to switch strategy and sell bitcoin instead (as bitcoin is down far less than their share price). Alternatively if bitcoin were to head lower in the coming months their share price will plummet further.

But yeah on second thoughts they are still in a stronger position than most.

My point is that I don't think a single publicly listed miner has covered themselves in glory, each one is slowly getting caught out by the severity of the bear market.

Hut8 were praised for sticking with their HODL strategy all the way through 2022 but now they're finally coming unstuck and either have to start dumping at $17k (lower than everyone else) or continuing issue shares 87% lower than they started the year. And in doing so have missed out on any growth (just 238 mined this month)

CleanSpark were praised as bear market experts as they set to task building from April onwards however now it turns out they've used up all their funds buying machines at around $40 per TH and then $28 per TH and then more off Argo at $15.50 per TH and now have to issue more shares (at share price lows) if they are to be able to buy any distressed assets at probably <10 per TH

Bitfarms enters into $100m credit facility in late 2021, borrows more in 2022 only to realise how bad things are getting forcing themselves to backtrack quickly and try and reduce it as quick as possible. Gone from one of the most respected miners due to being top of the efficiency rankings to now slightly at risk due to high short term debt that can only be met through issuing more shares at lows. I could continue and go through every miner.

This is a nascent (and highly speculative) industry with limited barriers to entry that relies on huge amounts of good fortune to come out on top. Core Scientific is the classic example of how if things had gone differently (short and less severe downturn) they would easily be a $10B company now.

One also has to accept that crypto sentiment turned so fast and so hard that any plans that were being put in place from about mid 2022 were no longer feasible. Argo's downfall s a combination of poor management and bad luck.

Absolutely every miner has failed to meet their objectives set earlier this year (look at EH targets and how often they have been downgraded for example) however those that had already built scale before the space collapsed (or sat on cash) are able to hole up better than the rest.

Core Scientific was viewed as the leading miner as recent as spring 2022, it is since down 99%.

That's true re Cine but if you ask me Argo still has more chance of eventually paying off its debts than Cine ever does. Whilst speculative all they really needed was another bull run in bitcoin... Isn't Cine's net debt something like 25-30 times the profit it made pre covid? When you add in the fact the world has seamlessly shifted to a subscription-based model to access new films and content it makes it rather unlikely they'll ever be close to recovering.

I hope they do though, I'm a Picturehouse member (Cineworld subsidiary) and still very much enjoying going to the small arthouse cinemas.

Thanks AB, and on top of that we certainly aren't going around now saying 'I told you so' as we never said it was definitely going to zero, we were merely sharing an opinion that this was becoming higher risk than many others seemed to recognise.

For me it wasn't until the move down in bitcoin in June to around the $20k level that I thought Argo's future could be in doubt and even then, it was only the failure to raise a few months ago that has left their survival looking so precarious.

It's beyond shocking that PW branded himself as a CEO that connects with shareholders and talks directly to them and yet now we're four days/two business days post-suspension and not a peep from him.

I'll leave you to dine out on my mistake which I corrected within 30 seconds if that makes you feel better!