Member Info for HarChris

The worst thing of all is that even AFTER all of this, even with all the facts presented to us and the reality staring us in the face there are still many on here that are continuing to double and treble their investment in Argo. There are STILL many who think 5p is a giveaway price. There are STILL many who think discussing all the issues and stating facts is deramping.

Makes me question the human race at times!

Fair enough, welcome to disagree! Timing is everything in this game and whether you believe it was dishonesty or ineptness everything turned against Argo. To be building their facility, kitting it out and taking on debt just as the bear market worsened *was* unlucky. It's of course Peter's job to foresee this, at least to some degree, it's his job to increase shareholder value not just do as shareholders ask him to on twitter etc

Even still, if he had simply managed to get a placing away a few months ago they would be relatively well placed to make it through this downturn despite all the mistakes and misfortune.

Personally I don't think PW is any worse than any of the other mining CEOs. There are a couple of big missteps that could now, given the bitcoin environment, lead to Argo's demise but I don't personally think he's been totally dishonest.

The recent silence is disappointing but he's obviously been trying to raise funds and hasn't managed it. If he comes out and admits that you would think that's the end of his chances, share price drops to 2p and an equity raise is completely off the table. As it is it's taken a bit too long and is a bit of a no go-er now anyway.

They had a strategy, yes the 'smart growth' language was a bit Oregon buzzy but it was workable and supported by shareholders - debt-based growth to avoid constant dilution, slow and steady. Big problem though when bitcoin turned so, they simply lacked the scale meaningful the lack of revenue and cash generation was instantly more painful than it was for the likes of Riot, CleanSpark, even bitfarms and debt payments immediately started to sting.

At least me and you ArgoBull can have a civilised discussion on here, it feels like I'm one side of the line and you're the other but neither of us are full blown extremists (i'm an open-minded sceptic and you lean towards bitcoin believer).

Lends itself to an enjoyable debate where we both continually learn something.

In terms of there being another bull market and you getting an exit price you're happy with, yeah fair enough I do think that's important. Point was that we already knew that HODLers have been HODLing, we get that from the data on how much bitcoin hasn't moved in the past 12 months, 24 months etc also having a whole coin is a big psychological thing so it's no surprise to see the numbers rising.

Whilst I've stressed that adoption isn't happening (IMO), it's certainly also true that the majority of DCA'ers are either continuing to DCA or at the very least holding on tight.

There are things that do matter when it comes to adoption. Is bitcoin cutting through to the population at large, are the unconverted starting to be converted, is there an increase in trust in the space, are institutions going to buy and hold for the long term or are they merely speculators?

These are the questions that will help us predict how successful bitcoin will be, not how many whole coiners there are.

'Whole coiners' metric is totally useless, it tells us absolutely nothing about adoption. For example if a whale sells 5000 bitcoin and 2000 holders with between 0.85 and 0.99 bitcoin buy 0.15 to 0.01 bitcoin that means we have 2000 new whole coiners, but how is that an increase in adoption? It's not, it's just telling us that those 2000 individuals are continuing to HODL, something we already know. On the whole HODLers are HODLing, the issue is new entrants aren't joining the space.

But what happens if those 2000 holders have become whole coiners after a load of smaller holders sold out completely? Well in that case that's a sign that adoption is actually going backwards, we are losing people from the space.

To prove my point of how useless the metric is, ask yourself 'what is the perfect amount of whole coiners?' Well you would think in theory it's 21 million, that's the most possible. But if that was the case they'd be simply 21 million people holding bitcoin out of a possible 8 billion, pretty rubbish, no? And a step backwards?

https://captainaltcoin.com/how-many-crypto-wallets-can-you-have/

Eating my words?! It was exactly my point and in the same way if Bitcoin does recover and Argo survives those same gamblers will consider it a bold, brave and genius move when in reality luck was on their side in that particular case.

And yeah thanks Hexam, had to throw a fiver on myself after your comments - pays for the Indian tonight!

I know you addressed this to Hexam but I'm going to reply as it's what you want to hear...

Most likely he is presenting Argo's financial position as worse than it actually is. He is using the June 30th balance sheet but since then we were made aware of this:

'During the month of July, the Company sold 887 Bitcoin at an average price of approximately $22,670. Proceeds were used to reduce obligations under a BTC-backed loan agreement with Galaxy Digital, as well as to fund operating expenses and growth capital.' And then in September they reduced it from $6.72m to zero.

Argo are likely where we've said they were for the past month, running out of cash but not in the very immediate term. They should still have about 16-20 weeks of cash runway left, possibly slightly more having reduced their short term debts by more than 50%. It's not ideal but I consider the other 5 on his list as more severely distressed than Argo.

He’s merely stating what many of us have on here for ages yet it takes a YouTuber for you to stand up and take note.

Today's close was the lowest since the 16th October 2020, back when Argo had 600PH/s of hash, before the bull run, before ~ $200m of investment.

I'm not sure if anyone is actually shorting here but if they are it's hard to argue it's backfired.

Such a weird culture where we praise people for essentially gambling on what is a high risk binary event. The very best of luck to those buying more and doubling up but it's no more brave than if I go and stick £5k on Cameroon to beat Brazil tonight. It might come in, I might make a lot but the odds are against me and it's reckless.

No PI not tempted unless bitcoin breaks through resistance or funding is secured - then we could see a buying opportunity.

Three weeks ago I stressed that of the very poor options Argo likely had available, the best would be a placing at 7p - yes it would be painful dilution but would give them at least three more months runway and possibly to the back end of 2023 if they could raise enough cash.

Instead there's been nothing but silence and the next leg down has finally arrived here. With the share price this low there is nout a placing can do now, PW is literally at crossing his fingers and reciting the rosary before bed each night stage.

Until the LOI placing/SI debacle I defended Peter and put Argo's demise down to a combination of inexperience and sheer bad luck but his failure to raise funding over the past two months is entirely on him and the board. No more defending from me.

'HC, this will double before riot and I won’t let you live it down lol. ;-)'

Fine but it must be from when you first stated it on the 28th Nov after COB, so we start with Argo £0.672 (down 30%) and Riot $4.22 (up 8%). I bought Riot at $3.90 but I'm happy starting from the higher level.

As it happens I didn't buy Riot for immediate gains, I bought for the long term outlook and no bankruptcy risk.

Somewhere, someplace poorinvestor is screaming 'Argo will double before your stupid Riot does HC har har har'

The longer they survive the worse it is for bitcoin - couldn't be a finer example of pure, unadulterated waste. Every day hundreds of thousands of machines are burring and whirring away mining tons of bitcoin and every day those same bitcoin freshly minted are dumped on the market.

The sooner the inevitable happens and the operations are shut down the better.

I guess they have no choice but to put on a brave face and if bitcoin suddenly were to rebound it would be (sort of) business as usual. Well, they'd need bitcoin above $30k just for starters and realistically $50k but for me this simply proves that they are out of options, there is no restructuring at this stage, they are gritting their teeth, pushing on until the axe finally falls in the months ahead.

But I mean 40% rise in two days is misleading, they are 96% down still just since mid August, 92% down since early October and still 35% down from when I wanted to start shorting a few weeks ago.

Gone by March absolute latest but I think early January still.

Very easy to follow his point. The 45 day rule means that Argo should have reported by November 14th but as there's been no mention of an extension or any media around this evidently companies get away with reporting late (beyond the 45 days).

Despite this it is not a good look to be over two weeks late and hence something (much more likely negative) must be going on behind the scenes. If for example they were close to filing for chapter 11 that might be a reason not to bother with a quarterly update.

However you swing it considerably late filing like this is not what you get from well managed successful companies.

Very sorry for that error, I remembered in their presentation a load of figures they gave based on 31st July and just got the months jumbled. The quote regarding 45 days does not mention business days so I am assuming it's not, i.e 1 and a half months after the quarter.

Maybe Argo aren't subject to the same rules as they are only secondary listed on the nasdaq with ADR shares issued?