Member Info for HarChris

yes but it can't properly function as a currency now because the money supply has to be able to increase realistically. If the UK refused to ever print another pound coin then it would be no different to bitcoin, it would have a fixed supply (however many notes and coins that are in circulation) and the money supply would actually decrease over time as some notes and coins got lost (like bitcoin that is lost forever). But they won't do that because society would collapse very quickly.

So bitcoin is essentially just a commodity with no real life use. Precious metals have a limited supply, gold has a limited supply (although it's very difficult to identify and extract all the gold in the earth's core in reality), lithium has a fixed supply that is expected to run out without about 30 years potentially.

One would think that bitcoin needs a real world use if it's going to be demanded for decades to come.

So when you break it down bitcoin is no different to other assets - the antique dealer knows that the Ming vase is rare, there are very few in circulation and therefore holds onto it in the hope that it goes up in value in the future, the fine art dealer know there is only one Picasso and there can never be another and so investors hold on to his paintings, it's a commodity with a fixed supply. Bitcoin has properties that make it more preferable as a store of value than gold but loses out on its lack of dual use (i.e gold's physical appeal and real world use).

In the end of the day bitcoin will be a success if enough people believe in it and covet it and demand it enough but belief in its ability to grow in value is the only mechanism in which bitcoin can succeed, there is nothing else giving it fundamental value.

I should point out that inflation is simply rising prices, if bitcoin was its own (crypto)currency then inflation still occurs. Say for example in El Salvador bitcoin becomes the main currency used, a rise in the price of bitcoin is technically a rise in inflation... goods priced in bitcoin would suddenly cost more and so its purchasing power has been eroded.

Of course the key difference is that the money supply isn't increasing beyond 21 million but it's also why it won't ever function as a currency, a currency requires the money supply inflating (but at an ideal rate of ~2% a year).

You could replace bitcoin with any investment vehicle in your example and it would be the same, for the struggling person trying to raise enough money for a deposit on a home they would benefit from investing their deposit and seeing it grow. Whether that be bitcoin, S&P, fine art, if they get a return it's all the same.

Question is, will the people in your scenario risk their deposit savings in bitcoin or will they more likely go for a safer investment choice? That's what remains to be seen.

If bitcoin were to become a currency of its own then that would be truly revolutionary. For the first time we'd be talking about a currency that can't be inflated (well only minimally and ever less over time) and would not be simply priced in dollars... But, as we all know, that's not on the cards.

A major problem with this narrative is that it's only the assetless class that suffer so severely from inflation and they generally don't have much disposable income to invest anyway. Those with assets aren't losing an amount equivalent to inflation because their property, their investments have been rising at least in line with inflation if not higher for years now. So whilst the value of a 1 dollar/pound has eroded many have seen their nominal wealth balloon leading to at least consistent real wealth. They are also able to command real terms increases in wages too.

It's the poorest in the world that suffer the most from inflation (unless we're talking sky high inflation for years on end, not one or two aberrant years in the developed world) and sadly there is very little they can do about it. Risking the little they have is unlikely to be an option most will be willing to take.

Bitcoin is potentially a solution for Argentinians or Venezuelans or any other nation experiencing hyper inflation, however similarly those with wealth in their countries will have already stored much of that wealth in dollars at is.

If you have the data on that it would be great. From what I've seen 2021 was a pretty breakthrough year for bitcoin adoption with news springing up of businesses accepting bitcoin left, right and centre, largely concentrated in a few parts of the world (think Miami, Dubai) but I've seen far less of it this year. Realistically adoption should be increasing this year, especially if 2021 was seen as an inflection point and if people believe bitcoin is so valuable (receiving four times the bitcoin today than you would have for the same goods at the peak).

This is an important area to keep an eye on though over the next few years.

Vast minority*** haha

And to PI, I'm not denying that that's a positive. There is a minority of the global population that believes in bitcoin and is doing their best to help with adoption. The question is whether that spreads to the masses whom have always been sceptical of it. You've got the same thing with El Salvador, pushing hard to make itself a country that embraces bitcoin but the reality is up until now there's no clamour for it.

In a few years time if things haven't changed those businesses accepting bitcoin will simply stop accepting bitcoin and that will be that.

I don't think it has failed even though it's fallen 70%. It's failing as a store of value, it's failing as a hedge against inflation but if it continues to repeat the cycles it's seen historically and reaches new all time highs every three or four years then it's been a success - let's be honest if anyone really cares about bitcoin changing the world, bringing financial freedom to the masses etc then they are in the vast majority.

As for buying property in bitcoin this doesn't prove that bitcoin's going to take off, what it is is early proponents of bitcoin trying their best to make it happen, to lead the charge. Same as Telsa/Elon buying bitcoin last year... it was an attempt to kickstart the institutional rush to buy bitcoin which would have made Tesla a fortune if it had worked. Bitcoin continued rising off the speculation but it eventually failed to materialise and down bitcoin went.

'One thing I find really strange, there are people invested in miners who think Bitcoin will fail. How did that happen lol.'

Anyone that thinks this downturn is the death of bitcoin will not be invested in miners unless they are downright stupid. My own personal view is that I am seeing nothing to suggest that bitcoin is going to ever catch the imagination of the global human race at large and therefore unlikely to ever reach the sorts of heights that some of the dreamers predict ($1m+ bitcoin sort of thing). I do however think that there is another bull run to be had within the next couple of years which therefore makes some of the miners extremely attractive right now at anywhere from 85% to 95% off all time highs.

As I've said many times there's a lot of money to be made from Argo if bitcoin were to recover in the next few months, before Peter is forced to take a funding route that could permanently damage Argo's chances of ever competing with the other miners (like heavily diluting below current market price) - I just don't see why one would risk being wiped out when there's other miners with far less risk with a similar upside.

Well all the while BTC is tied to USD and not a standalone currency you are still losing money on your dollar even if BTC is stable - if you bought $10k of BTC a year ago it's now worth $3k and that $3k only buys what $2650 would have bought you a year ago so you've lost closer to 75%, not 70%.

As for hedge against inflation 'lie' I wouldn't call it a lie, but it's evidently turned out not to be the case, it's not a natural hedge against inflation however anyone attempts to spin. Bitcoin has proven to be the opposite, a speculative instrument that investors turn to when everything around it is being pumped.

John you have to ask yourself a very simple question, 'when do I expect bitcoin to recover back above $30k and beyond?'

If your answer is next week then absolutely average down, Argo will quickly snap back towards 30p with a bitcoin recovery and then funding will be forthcoming. If your answer is early 2023 then it's a bit riskier but you'll probably be safe to see those big returns still... but if your answer is mid 2023 or later then you will likely lose 100% of your money.

I'm annoyed at myself for not shorting Corz, was more laziness than anything as I hadn't ever looked into shorting before and didn't know exactly how it worked or what I was doing. Was $0.20 when I discussed it, then $0.24 and now it's back to $0.13.

No funding forthcoming, a market cap of just $49m and net losses so far this year of $1.71B, in just nine months!

They also hit a new daily record of BTC mined, 48.1, so now they mine 5.34% of all new coins minted - quite some EH/s coming offline very soon...

Certainly prior to 2020 that was true but Saylor, Pompliano, Raoul, Natalie Brunell, many more have been given increasing air time, Saylor was on some of the networks for 30 mins+... Scaramucci and O'leary brought with them mainstream attention. But yeah for sure FTX is going to have a lasting impact as if you were already of the opinion that the space is one to avoid that'll certainly have cemented your view, most likely for good.

'For Argo, the btc price is partly irrelevant atm, just need to keep the lights on for now. '

I'm not sure you can say that when every single coin is being sold to keep those very lights on. PW signalled financial distress with BTC at $21.5k announcing that soon they would run out of cash without action being taken. Since then they have sold machines but bitcoin has fallen $5k - so that's roughly $1.1m less revenue a month now compared to the point when Peter put out that initial rns. Each $1k bitcoin fall is a further $210k cash burn a month which is not immaterial with finances so very stretched.

No, no that's not what anyone is saying. The argument I make is that bitcoin reached mass attention in 2020. Adherents were given plenty of time on CNBC, CNN, MSNBC etc to spread the message, to sell it. This SHOULD have led to what many predicted was going to happen if the case was convincing, a much softer and less severe downturn than had previously been seen. At the very least we should be seeing institutions entering the space in droves now. It's one thing not to follow the herd after a 500% rise, it's another not to get involved after a 77% fall either... this would be the ideal time for big companies to start building a bitcoin holding - as far as we can see that isn't happening.

I know what you mean about education regarding crypto vs bitcoin but I'm unsure that message is being reached outside of crypto circles. Maybe it will, maybe the argument will eventually be won, i'm only commenting on where we're at at the moment and it's not auspicious.

Absolutely AB but there's a major difference... those 'next big thing' sector stocks are only ever pumped during one bull market, if the hype doesn't materialise they don't pump in the same fashion the following cycle, investors move onto something else with an untarnished narrative. I don't think we'll see anything like the moves again inFacebook, Amazon, Twitter etc without very credible financials to back up the hype.

For bitcoin to rise 500% once again it won't be enough to simply look back at the past and believe it's going to happen, without a narrative profit will be taken far sooner than it has in the past. Last time $65k was breached for a number of reasons but most notably the 'institutions are coming' speculation. There was also the HODL narrative built on top which basically said 'don't give away your coins to institutions!!!' It then held up longer than it would otherwise due to the narrative swiftly developing that it was going to be a hedge against inflation. None of this was borne out in reality.

Of course a new convincing narrative could develop in a year or so's time that provides the framework for another incredible bull market pump but it's going to be a challenge imo.

'you can call it a Ponzi but you have to then call every market run a Ponzi as it is no different in that respect.'

I agree that there isn't much difference between your average AIM stock and bitcoin, they are speculative and it's about reading the macro picture and timing your entry before the herd arrives. That's not exactly a complement for bitcoin though: 'bitcoin, no worse than any small cap!'

I don't think that's true of the wider market though.

I don’t consider them like for like, no, it’s just something to think about. You can scoff at the comparison but these sorts of comparisons *were* being made in 2020/2021 by many respected bitcoiners. Bitcoin adherents have battled to find a narrative that will sell it to the masses and to institutions since it’s inception. That narrative often changes which suggests to me that many of those commentators aren’t actually in the space because they think Bitcoin is going to benefit the world but because they are in early and want to become uber rich from seeing it rise another 10 or 100 times from here.

The majority of people still see it as nothing but a ponzi, a speculative instrument in which to make money they need to get in low enough and sell their Bitcoin to some other mug at a higher price. Unless that widespread feeling is eradicated it will be a challenge to ever see Bitcoin at the sort of $250k mark and beyond.

From what I could see over what I think was an eighteen month period there was little evidence of mainstream western adoption of bitcoin. I'm looking at wallets with at least 0.1 BTC and there's now 4.059 million wallets with at least that much bitcoin. A year ago? 3.3 million wallets. So there's some increase but that is probably just because 0.1BTC only costs $2k now whereas one year ago it cost $5.5k.

Fear not my paranoid friend, I did indeed click it but I couldn't see any info on how the number of addresses had changed over time in each range? Am i missing something obvious?

Anyway this is how I look at it. Imagine that Apple smartphones had been around for fifteen years but the average person simply hadn't come across them before or knew very little about them. Then a few years later, smartphones went mainstream, everyone knew what they were, everyone had listened to the arguments for why they were the future and how they were going to change society, everyone knew someone with one. But then instead of an exponential increase in the number of smartphone users, in fact two years later, the numbers with smartphone had barely changed... yes all those that believed in the technology continued to have iphones but they weren't convincing their friends or colleagues that smartphones were the future.

That's how I see bitcoin currently, failing to convince the vast majority of the western population that bitcoin is going to add anything to their life or bring them financial freedom.

I think it's better to have as a thread as it should be of interest to many on here: https://twitter.com/blockworksres/status/1595811891409915904

The big positive is that there appears to be very little chance of MSTR being margin called at any point, bitcoin would have to fall far further for there to be any risk of that. However if the bear market were to go on well into 2023 and the software side of the business fails to improve (especially given the looming recession) then there is a very decent chance MSTR will have to start selling bitcoin to cover the debt payments, which amount to about $50m a year currently from the bitcoin acquired debt vs $67m cash/cash equiv.

In other words if they post a loss from the software business then as things stand they'll be out of cash by about October 2023.