Member Info for HarChris

The current bitcoin hash rate is 263 EH/s, if Argo went under it would fall to 261EH/s... do you think the network could cope with that?

I'll partially answer it as the only bulls left on here are those who don't actually have any idea of what's going on and are basically just going off the mantra 'share price low, must go high' & 'Helios is the future'.

The Q3 results are vitally important to see just how bad the situation is. At the end of June they had $54m of short term debt, liable within twelve months. We know that figure will be lower now as that's where some of the revenue generated from selling 1250 HODL went but what remains will likely still be high.

By my rough calcs Argo will be burning through about $2m of cash a month now, which gives them 8-12 weeks of runway depending on whether or not they are able to amend the equipment financing agreement. So any funding must (i) prop Argo up for at least another 6 months and (ii) be enough to pay off the outstanding short term debt due.

So what sort of funding are you expecting in the next few weeks? From what source and how much?

Let's remember that John Wood's plan has always been to turn Harland and Wolff into a £500m revenue business by 2027. Many ridiculed this ambition previously but this recent contract win must make any sensible person stand up and take note now.

A company winning many contracts including one as big as we've just seen has the potential to be valued many times what it currently is so no, the share price isn't overcooked. And I'm sure they wouldn't have been awarded the contract if there was serious doubts over Harl's future funding.

No evidence of a planned deep state operation whatsoever, just lots of close links between high profile elites and SBF and others surrounding here. It's no surprise to me, how else do these people gain such a high profile and wealth so quickly? Corruption on a grand scale, sure, but this screams of insecurity from the crypto world to me rather than acceptance that it's all a bit of a ponzi.

If the government want to bring down crypto they don't need to be sneaky.

Why the hell is G A Y a banned word on here?!

Maybe he's ***? Maybe his friends are *** and use the app? Maybe it's neither and just saw the news relating to surging stock price post IPO?

Why does it matter?

My word, these two posts are the epitome of mindless ramping and mindless deramping, neither offers anything.

And no the cash runway will be a little longer than that at $16.5K bitcoin. The $12.4m machines sales gives them about 8 weeks I think. Amending the existing equipment financing agreement would give them another 4 weeks or so on top but, worryingly, the early October update said this : 'The Company and NYDIG expect to close the amendment within the next few weeks, and a further announcement will be made in due course.' and that was six weeks ago.

So yeah by my estimations we are looking at the new year or mid February as things stand.

When you take everything into account it is not unreasonable to think that in 2025 and beyond Harl could be making £30m+ profit a year - in healthier markets (which we should see by then) that's a market cap of ~£450m, higher in buoyant markets.

Even accounting for dilution £2 a share is very reachable by 2025 so it's worth tucking these away and letting it all play out.

No that's wrong, they've issued at most $300m worth of shares out of a possible $500m (can't find precise details unlike with other miners) - don't forget the recent big dilution, of 18 million shares, was at just $3.60 ish a share so only raised $65m - besides that they've only issued 6 million shares in 2022 and a similar amount back end of 2021.

Bitfarms, clsk, mara, hut8 and I think Riot all have a huge amount they can raise but the dilution is becoming pretty extreme now. Take bitfarms, it could raise $300m but are they actually going to when the market cap is $130m?! Same with clsk, the dilution becomes too heavy.

Chaebol to be honest a bear market isn't going to serve any of them well, I think. The likes of CLSK benefited from issuing shares earlier than the others but then lose out by buying machines far higher than they are soon going to be (they bought 10000 machines as recently as September for $28m). Unless any of them took a risk, raised, and then sat on the cash for worser times they are all in the same boat to a degree.

Yeah my view isn't far off, I think the majority will fail eventually. In the meantime though if there's another bull run the likes of Mara, clsk, Riot will do 10X from top to bottom - possibly 20X or even more.

Yeah if I was heading up these companies I think I'd execute a big chunk of the ATMs and keep the cash on the balance sheet for when the best acquisition targets appear in 2023 and that way you minimise the pain if the share price goes much lower.

It's not exactly hindsight, you called bitcoin going lower correctly but arguably misjudged the miners themselves, assuming clsk would fall further than mara in the scenario you were expecting (bitcoin falling and pricing in going lower).

I sold the rest of my clsk holding on Tuesday when it rallied wit the nasdaq, was poor timing (or unlucky with FTX) and took a loss but at least it seems to be the right move.

Although it's no wonder the share prices are falling when we know all these miners are going to continue issuing shares all the way down. Take Hut8 for example, they've recently entered into a $200m ATM offering to, I assume, allow them to continue with their HODL strategy all the way through to the next bull market. After all it takes huge funding to continue mining without any bitcoin sales...

Why buy today knowing that your holding is being immediately diluted?

Why? Your best bet would have been to short Mara, it's tanking.

Clsk is not becoming distressed in this bull market, they have at least $200m left of the ATM offering to tap into if necessary and are still just about cash flow positive all the way down here at $16.5k (or there or there abouts). In fact none of these companies with ATM offerings are going to run out of cash, the big unknowns are how heavy is dilution going to be at 52 week lows (think Mara with $550m worth of common shares to issue, clsk $200m, bitfarms has $300m)

The only reason Corz is in such trouble is because of the enormous debt and debt repayments and Argo f**** up its own funding situation. The rest can battle on absorbing huge losses well into the future.

So in bitfarms case $370m funding has provided a business now valued at $129m
With cleanspark $500m raised to $108m
And Argo is something like $230m to give a present market cap of $41m.

This sector is truly the worst when it comes to return on investment. I could pick any miner but let's take bitfarms for our example.

Since January 2021 they have raised $300m from placings and $70m from equipment financing agreements. so that's $370m worth to get to a position where they are only just about to make a tiny profit on cash terms and then, in a few years time, those machines will be defunct and hundreds more millions will be required.

Essentially you can make money off the losses of all those that participated in placings at 3, 4, 5, sometimes as much as 10 times what you pay in the bear market if you wait patiently enough.

I've got a question on the lifespan of machines. If I am correct that the average machine lasts three to four years does that mean, theoretically, that if the bear market continues into 2024 any miner that has been unable to expand in this period will potentially be almost assetless come the following bull cycle?

I throw mud whatever the share price. Follow the bitcoin price not Argo, without the former any share price appreciation will just be sold into and it's simply a waiting game til the next negative rns.

Trading sideways in the $16k - $17k range won't cut it.