Member Info for HarChris

I still think the bitcoin bottom will be about $14k although of course that changes if something major happens like Gemini going under. Think I'm going to have a nibble on a few of the miners this week if it goes any lower, they only need to survive til the next relief rally to see 100% returns from here.

Well the likes of Hut8 have to dilute at these rubbish lows or start selling their HODL, it’s one or the other. Same with all of them really that are left with a decent sized Bitcoin holding (unless Mara has the balance sheet to withstand that???)

If they go with the latter that’s more selling pressure.

All of you that are genuine holders and not traders... chill out. These are ugly markets, a 'fair' or 'reasonable' mcap is not necessarily going to happen just like that. Try to switch off, this is a share you can keep in the portfolio and avoid looking at 10 times a day, have patience for the story to unfold and play out and eventually the rewards for that will come.

'If there's money to be made on miners it's when the 'death to bitcoin' ' no new bull market' scenarios start being priced in - something like <$7 Mara, <$2 clsk, <$4 Riot,

Well a week later Mara is $6.80, clsk $2.11, Riot $4.16. Anyone dipping their toes in or already all in Argo? :D

21-Nov-22 10:28:22 6.3825 985,302 Buy* 6.00 6.75 62.89k

Not certain bit pretty sure that's a sell.

ATrades no one's denying you can fluke a quick 10 min trade for some beer money but the rest of us will steer well clear in case a bad rns lands and we lose 80% in an instant.

I'm happy to concede this one, I get a little ****y too at those who jump in to comment without fully digesting an article or video. But it would be nice to see BC articulate his view on Argo at some point, it feels to me like he's the Piers Morgan of this board - isn't able to engage intellectually so just goes after individuals instead.

Some director buys would be good to see to add to the momentum.

Kinda as expected, small rise of 0.51% after the 0.2% fall a fortnight ago - probably be seeing it start to come down now with Bitcoin as low as it is.

I had followed all the FTX stuff for a week and with that all the deep state conspiracy theories that were suddenly being hatched. I watched fifteen mins of this particularly video and decided I’d seen it all already.

Fair enough though BC, at the time I did still feel I should watch it all but couldn’t be bothered haha

Yeah exactly Hexam. You've got to look at the context of the situation we're in currently. In these markets small caps *aren't* being pumped, there is very little appetite for risky stocks and any small cap with short term debt is given a wide berth. On top of that the crypto space is looking weaker than ever and then within the bitcoin mining space Argo is particularly up against it. Argo's lack of growth in the past six months and lack of scale means that it is an outlier amongst the publicly listed mining companies in that it can't generate cash at $22k, let alone $16.5k (just today I read that bitfarms has brought its cash cost down to $14300, for example.

PI is dreaming about a FOMO pump here which isn't going to happen without a bitcoin rally.

If there's not even a relief rally then I suspect Argo will go under before the Spring Equinox.

Hexam that wouldn't spark FOMO, it would not be enough to push Argo into cash flow positive territory and therefore it would still be merely a matter of time before they are all out of funds. And it's also not realistic, they've been selling all the machines they can, the last thing they'll be thinking about is expanding now.

I think there's genuinely nothing that can be done at this stage that does anything but add a few months to their cash runway. It's bitcoin recovery or bust.

'Let's tweak the question slightly, what could realistically save Argo now (that is in their own hands)?'

I discussed this last week and believe these are the options, none of which are good:
(i) attempt to execute a raise at 6p a share raising ~$10m by issuing 160m shares (increasing total shares in issue by 25%)
(ii) move early and mothball operations and survive a little longer on the funds they recently raised from selling machines
(iii) Like AB has just discussed look to sell Helios and revert back to a Canadian-only operation
(iv) do nothing and hope bitcoin turns within the 2-3 months they can fund operations for.

I think he'll have been trying (i) for the past few weeks but I doubt there's much chance of getting a placing away, they simply can't raise enough at this share price to do anything but survive an extra few months. (ii) merely keeps them alive but for how long for? (iii) pretty much ensures they are forever a small entity with little chance of every competing with the other publicly listed miners and (iv) well, this I suspect will be the route they are forced to go.

Tbh I'll give you that one PI... if and only if Peter buys a significant number of shares, and i'm talking like £1.5m back of the £3.6m he sold last year, then the share price would rally hard as it would suggest he was confident in saving the business. Is he going to start buying millions of shares? Almost certainly not.

The late Q3 reporting, the lack of videos from Peter, this isn't a coincidence. He is pretty much hamstrung with limited options now, none of which offer Argo much of a future.

I think it's kinda sad personally, I've always liked PW and enjoyed the way he interacted with shareholders and his enthusiasm and youthfulness was a nice change from your average stuffy corporate CEO.

The problem is PI, unlike Hexam, you aren't able to differentiate between small caps and understand why certain ones are able to be continually pumped and why others can't... just look at #arb for example on twitter, there isn't a peep out of anyone anymore, most understand the game is more or less up unless bitcoin rallies. It's not just because they've fallen 95% or whatever, despite that often being the case coincidently.

In fact the whole bitcoin mining space is in trouble, they are all going lower and there is unlikely to be much investment forthcoming. - it's therefore hardly surprisingly that the weakest of them all is on shaky ground, is it?

Think about it like this...

Currently all the publicly listed miners are struggling badly. They are all loss making and have seen their share prices fall between 87% and 99% from 2021 highs. What message does it send out if one of the weakest of them all is propped up? It's going to make the investment case for the rest of them a hell of a lot worse.

The space doesn't need so many publicly listed miners, in fact, it would be much stronger if there were fewer.

Chaebol if there was a decent chance of a bitcoin bull run soon then there would certainly be reason to attempt a cheap takeover now or take a significant portion on the cheap... the problem is that's not looking likely.

I'd have been buying Argo shares at 7p if bitcoin was still around $20k and trying to break to the upside but $16.5k and potentially inching lower? Nah, far too muck risk for any investor.

The current bitcoin hash rate is 263 EH/s, if Argo went under it would fall to 261EH/s... do you think the network could cope with that?

I'll partially answer it as the only bulls left on here are those who don't actually have any idea of what's going on and are basically just going off the mantra 'share price low, must go high' & 'Helios is the future'.

The Q3 results are vitally important to see just how bad the situation is. At the end of June they had $54m of short term debt, liable within twelve months. We know that figure will be lower now as that's where some of the revenue generated from selling 1250 HODL went but what remains will likely still be high.

By my rough calcs Argo will be burning through about $2m of cash a month now, which gives them 8-12 weeks of runway depending on whether or not they are able to amend the equipment financing agreement. So any funding must (i) prop Argo up for at least another 6 months and (ii) be enough to pay off the outstanding short term debt due.