Member Info for HarChris

But yeah just so you know I'm certainly not a massive bitcoin bear, I'm open to the possibility of it being a success and am constantly trying to evaluate over time what the chances of that success is. Also, I find following an asset with (virtually) no underlying value, one that relies almost solely on supply, demand and basic human psychology, very interesting.

Are you quite heavily invested in Argo out of interest?

That doesn't make sense? Fiat going 1000 x? But you're investing in bitcoin and converting it to fiat...

If you're an investor you need bitcoin to outpace the stock market and outpace inflation so that you aren't seeing a net loss in your personal wealth. Good for you for putting your money where your mouth is, that's fine. As it stands I've been fortunate to get in and out and make some money and I have buy orders to rebuy bitcoin at $14.9k and $14k so I will possibly have 5% of my portfolio in bitcoin alongside you at some point.

Discussing its pros and cons is important however to work out the probability of future success and then allocate accordingly.

Yeah I'm near certain there's going to be another bull run that leads to miners rising at least 500% again before 2024 is out, probably next year. I want to be in and out before it potentially fizzles out for good.

And i'm constantly monitoring all these things I'm talking about in case some of the negatives, some of the inauspicious factors that lead to the current likely outcome (bitcoin eventually failing) changes.

And i'm not for one moment say bitcoin isn't going to reach those heights, the $100k mark, the $1m mark or whatever because obviously nobody knows that. All I am simply saying is it isn't looking promising thirteen years after its conception for a whole host of reasons.

The odds are certainly against its eventual success ten, fifteen years from now.

Those past charts really aren't useful as the bitcoin network was far too small that far back to compare it to today. There has always been a minority of the population that has been interested in cryptocurrency and bitcoin, about digital assets and finance. Back ten years ago when the market cap was $1b there was always going to be the potential to make exponential returns, it was well worth the risk to stake a small amount of money just in case bitcoin took off but now we're at a different stage in its development. Now the narrative matters because without a compelling narrative that holds up to scrutiny there is simply no way that bitcoin rises from a $300 billion network to a $3 trillion dollar network and beyond.

The major problem is, 13 years after its conception, it is still only a very small minority of people who believe in bitcoin and its future longevity.

Oh and to add they have very low, almost insignificant short term debt which is another reason why they are probably the most certain to make it through the next two years, even with BTC lower than it is today.

BC i'll give you a brief lowdown of where they stand.

As true HODLers all the way through this bear market Hut8 continue to increase their bitcoin holdings, standing at 8687 at last count. They have a $200m At the Market placing since August 2022 so are without doubt well funded to see through whatever this bear market has to throw at them.

At $1.12 a share it makes the market cap $222m - if you're bullish on bitcoin then there's obviously enormous value there as, come say end of 2023, Hut8 should have a HODL of at least 10000 (and if you believe in $100k bitcoin that would be $1B)

The one negative now is that they have to keep issuing shares to continue their HODL policy and so as the share price goes lower it means even heavier dilution.

'HC, the low number of btc were due to electricity problems, according to their rns.

Could you direct me to where it says that in the October operational update please? All I am seeing is this:

During the month of October, Argo mined 204 Bitcoin or Bitcoin Equivalents (together, BTC) compared to 215 BTC in September 2022. The decrease in BTC mined was primarily due to a significant increase in the Bitcoin network difficulty in October compared to September.

The bitcoin network difficulty has continued to increase in November...

That's irrelevant to it being a store of value, there is no other store of value that exists that sees this sort of volatility and hence it's not a store of value, it's merely a speculative trading instrument. Now that's not to say it won't continue doing what's it's done in the past and folk will continue to make money but without a coherent narrative it's going to struggle to pump anywhere near as hard as it has in the past.

Currently for a bitcoiner to encourage a non bitcoiner to invest about the best they can do is say 'look at the past cycles, it will do that again!'

Unless of course they've sorted out their efficiency issues but they've failed to up until this point - however you swing it it's going to be well under 250 BTC for November and still likely under 200.

'Fourthly, they should be mining around 250 btc this month and the next few months should see around that amount'

PI, I did forget to pull you up on this point though... what? ... what? ...what?!
Last month Argo mined 204 BTC. Since then they have seen no increase in their own hash rate but global hash rate has increased. In October it averaged ~245EH/s whilst November looks to be averaging 264 EH/s, a difficulty adjustment across the month of about 8%.

Bitcoin mined in November will be less than 200.

Every argument, every narrative supporting bitcoin is falling apart. During the last bull market commentators switched from a 'this is going to be the world's reserve currency' narrative to a 'bitcoin is a store of value' tone and a 'hedge against inflation' in order to convince the masses that, despite serious macro headwinds, you don't need to dump your bitcoin.

Since, bitcoin has fallen by over 75%. Does that sound like a store of value to you? If property went up 500% one year and then fell 75% the following would we describe it as store of value? No.

Each and every bitcoin narrative is falling apart and it's been revealed what we all already knew, it's a speculative asset/ponzi that early adopters hoped would make them rich (many have already). Those that joined the party later will be hoping for one last huge pump in 2023/2024/2025 where they can exit for good and leave the last one's standing holding their bags.

I shall back down again here, I think I've been a little on the harsh side on my predictions for when the cash will run out,...I do think 5-6 months is a reasonable guess with all the information we currently have PI. Fingers crossed for you.

Without figures that just sounds like guesswork PI but I'm not necessarily arguing on the cash runway front, there are various unknowns like electricity costs and bitcoin mined going forward.

To be fair though I did a recent analysis and came up with about 4-5 months myself so it more or less aligns - will find out more if we ever get that Q3 update. The problem is PW can't leave it right to the wire so more likely to hear bad news within a few months if there's no bitcoin recovery...

Go on, show your workings. I concede to you if you can show that Argo has enough money for the next 5-6 months.

If you genuinely can't see that burning through about $1.8m cash a month with no end in sight for bitcoin and nothing else to sell is not a major threat to Argo's existence then that's on you. Any funder now has to cough up over $20m just to keep Argo operating for twelve months and that's only if bitcoin doesn't go lower.

You're certainly right in terms of the short term moves PI, Argo will drop by less than the rest of the miners... but you're missing the key point that very soon without funding PW will have to announce that Argo are no longer operational, whether that be mothballed facilities or administration.

Perhaps that might have an effect on the share price?

I throw in one light-hearted comment then get back to talking numbers and figures.

Still waiting for one single meaningful post from you :)

Worth noting that from $21k to $17k Argo was losing / burning through an *extra* ~$950,000 a month. The recent fall adds $350k to that figure so when PW told the market in early October that Argo would soon be cash flow negative without funding, that was prior to losing an extra $1.3m a month.

That's me in the corner, that's me in the spotlight, 'loosing' my religion.