Member Info for HarChris

We already knew this and Fortune dedicated a lot of the last update and investor meet talking about it.

'$21k is still the consensus view for year end at the moment, might change of course, could be half that'

That's also Poorinvestor's daily price prediction.

US price finally reflecting reality

Lol
I will continue to talk all things
Bitcoin
On Here
Whether you like it
Or Not
Good luck
I hope you don't
Lose the
Lot

If the book flips and bitcoin looks like going on a run I'll be back in here and likely to get in only a little higher than you guys who are jumping in now... surely that's the better bet rather than crossing your fingers and hoping and praying for a turnaround?

I don't think you're following, what I'm saying.

Bitcoin has dropped to a level that puts Argo's existence in doubt, bitcoin is very bearish short term and Argo is running out of funds and time. What's hard to understand? It doesn't matter how resilient bitcoin's been in regards to this investment, all that matters is whether or not it's likely to recover to $~25k+ in the next three months. If bitcoin were to pump suddenly then you'd multibag on Argo of course, but that's not looking likely so you're risking the lot to multibag on a very low probability. Not only that you could just pick another miner that has no risk of going under and then you either multibag or you see small paper losses. The risk/reward is far better elsewhere.

The odds are against anyone backing Argo at this point.

If there's money to be made on miners it's when the 'death to bitcoin' ' no new bull market' scenarios start being priced in - something like <$7 Mara, <$2 clsk, <$4 Riot,

In just two days we have Mara $8.01, clsk $2.33, Riot $4.56... not hard to imagine the above prices being met.

'I think fact BTC hasn’t sunk past 16k'

See this is what you don't get. There's an argument to be had about bitcoin's resilience, there's an argument to be had for buying bitcoin now and hunkering down and riding out the volatility. None of this helps Argo though, $16k is not good enough to keep Argo ticking over, $19k isn't good enough heck even $22k isn't (although would bring capital back to the sector).

Let's just say bitcoin stays in the $16.5k to $19k range over the next six months. Buying bitcoin today you'll have made anything from a few percent to 15%, depending on when you chose to sell. Argo however? Almost certainly bankrupt or on life support.

They are basically acting like a small diagnostics company living within its means and as its on AIM it's treated that way. They have an amazing opportunity to grow, excite the market and becoming something much bigger than that but there seems to be no urgency to do that whatsoever. I can almost picture a massive blown up image of the Hare and the Tortoise on the wall of the meeting room saying 'we're in no rush, we'll get there when we get there'

Difficult to watch indeed!

I know they are a diagnostics company and not investment managers but my word there's so much they could do to support the share price right now.

If I was them I'd be looking at doing something like this - identify a takeover target, initiate a buyback, attempt to buy 10 million shares (~£12m all in all), watch the share price balloon and then raise at £1.50 a share £20m to support an acquisition.

End up with more cash than you started with and a new share price floor almost three times above where it started. I know they're not going to do that but that's the sort of option you have when you're sitting on cash twice the value of your market cap.

'HC, just wait for the next few RNS’s before you dish out financial predictions. '

If you want to do well trading/investing work out to the best of your ability where a company stands *before* it is confirmed in an RNS so that you are ahead of the market, not behind it.

Sure but to put in in perspective Core Scientific are dumping 46 BTC a day, Argo 7 a day, CleanSpark 18 a day, to name a few.

If bitcoin balloons to $50k in the next few weeks and Argo multi bags it doesn't mean that we were wrong and that you're right, this is about statistical probability. You are wrong on many of the details surrounding Argo currently and the scenarios that can play out. There is no scenario where Argo simply carries on as they are for six months with BTC at $15k, machines will need to be mothballed before then. There is no scenario where Argo simply carries on as they are then suddenly decides to raise $20m at 7p, every few weeks that BTC is down here will see the share price walked down lower.

This is a binary bet on bitcoin recovering in the very near term plain and simple, if that doesn't happen anyone buying in at 7p will lose money, whatever move PW makes next. It's hard to put a probability on that but recent events are damaging to the space and at the very least increases the odds of this crypto winter extending well into 2023 (which is already too late for Argo).

And as Hexam just said anyone thinking Binance are going to swoop in to save Argo is delusional. Why would they? Argo is small fry and makes up less than 1% of the network, why keep a weak miner alive that is cash strapped and needs to sell every single coin they mine? Instead they will want to prop up stronger miners that are able to HODL through this period and lessen the selling pressure on bitcoin.

They are burning through cash AB, the recent drop in bitcoin means an extra ~$1m cash burn per month- new money is simply to keep the lights on at this point. $20m isn't happening at this share price but $10m perhaps to give the company breathing space until about May 2023.

'Worse (sic) case scenario for arb is, doing a placing at 7p and raising 20 million, which I can't see happening.'

You really think the worst case scenario is raising $20m at a mere 3% discount to today's price? Besides bitcoin rallying that is the current best case scenario.

PI I've explained why I'm here... previously I thought there was a trade to be had with Argo and so I followed closely. Now i don't but this has become a great place to discuss all things bitcoin, bitcoin mining and crypto with the likes of yourself, Hexam, ArgoBull, Chaebol so whilst I see no investment case for Argo at 7p I'm still here for general discussion.

As it happens if they were to spring a 6p placing on us and the share price dropped to ~4.5p I might be in for a trade

At what price PI will you start to wonder if you’ve called this wrong???

I still think you’re way overthinking this sector. Forget Bitcoin mined per EH, even forget ppa, if they had sorted a large ATM placing last year when all the others did they would be fine now and at ~35p+

Even just getting that placing away last month without announcing their intention first and they’d be fine.

It’s a lack of funding compared to its peers that is crushing them.

It doesn't matter, none of us holders have to even think about it until the mcap is at least double what it is now, realistically much more than that. In the meantime we can use our intuition and common sense to decipher that whatever the financial benefit is it's going to end up more than a £30m market cap - especially when you add all the other contracts we have on top + £77m worth of subsidised investment.

Arguably the most important figure currently is the cash flow figure, at what price will the company be generating cash (I.e stripping out the sink costs and depreciation) and that’s likely to be closer to $28K.