Member Info for HarChris

It’s now my largest investment so something I’ve got to be thinking about too but so many catalysts have piled up for q1 that I think (hope) that it’ll be a different story in a few months time and I’ll be able to reduce at a much higher price.

Thor’s all in sustaining cost is now $850 per oz. The gold price is $2600/oz. And they have a tax holiday through to 2027 so no corp tax hence all profit. Can you imagine if one of the bitcoin miners was breaking even at $30k BTC right now?!

Re Argo being worth a punt at 1-3p I don’t necessarily disagree but the risk/reward isn’t there until the next update is released - we need to know what happens next post 28th December or it’s just too risky, even as a trade at a low price.

I mean until recently they were a highly risky gold minnow building the first large scale mine ever in Nigeria so being on any exchange was probably enough for them so that they could raise capital if necessary (essentially the whole point of AIM).

Since though everything has gone to plan. They are halfway through their initial five year mine plan for their initial mine and have already repaid the entirety of the large debt they incurred to build the mine. They now are free to make cold hard cash for the rest of the mine life which comes out at $300m+ FCF. They are also expected to increase the mine life at Segilola by a couple more years (extension plan due q1) so you can add another $150m+ of FCF for that.

Then you have Douta in Senegal which sees the feasibility study released first week of Jan and will show NPV around $500m, possibly higher, and they are building it without any dilution.

Since listing on AIM they haven’t issued a single share, it’s been a flawless execution but somehow continually ignored by the markets. Something I think that will change once buybacks are announced in q1 (or dividends if share price has already started to correct).

Nigeria doesn’t come without risks and some state officials have been causing some trouble but from what I understand the federal government is very much on Thor’s side and is actually closer to Thor’s experienced Nigerian businessman executives than they are with the state officials - so the jurisdiction is not the risk that some think it is.

Genuinely very hard to imagine losing money at a valuation now below a PE of 1 (q4 will produce around $35m net profit).

Well doesn’t that prove the point somewhat? We’re squabbling over whether profit is going to be $35m or $45m for the quarter, meanwhile the likes of Centamin is expected to post ~$65m profit in q4 and they have just been bought out for $2.5B.

In almost all situations dividends are the better and simpler met redistribute cash back to shareholders but in the very rare situation that you're generating more profit than your valuation buybacks are a very interesting option, hence Segun and the management looking into it.

It's really quite extreme to be about to post close to $35m net profit for this quarter (and every quarter to come) and be stuck at a $130m valuation.

No no that’s not how it works.

Let’s just imagine THX announce a policy that they will buy any shares on the open market sub 30p because of an egregious undervaluation, what happens? Well firstly the market knows that there’s a buyer in town with serious firepower and so they front run management buying. Let’s not forget that current daily volume is 200k shares, setting just £10m aside for buybacks would mean 60m shares to buy at current price. A rerate ensues in a flash.

Once shares are bought by the company they then remove them off the register meaning a lower market cap for a higher share price hence a sustainable rise.

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Don’t get me wrong, if the market does what it should in the coming months THX will stick with their original dividend plan but if the sp is still down here it makes sense to take the shares off the market at such a low, it will cost the company very little at just 17p a share.

CLSK and others, I know you're not all that interested in gold stocks but I think you should look at THX (Thor Explorations).

They are about to post close to $100m net profit for this year and are now net cash positive and will be totally debt free end of this quarter (with $30m cash). Then they will be generating upwards of $125m net profit next few years ($250m over 2025/26) before their second bigger mine comes online in perhaps mid 2026. The PFS due imminently will show a NPV for that project of $500m+. With both mines operating side-by-side (waiting on mine life extension in Nigeria) they may well be generating $200m+ net profit per year (obviously no idea what gold price will be late 2026 onwards so forecasting is tricky here).

Now liquidity is super low and that's been one of the main issues but I communicate with the CEO and I know for a fact they are planning buybacks in 2025. Current volume is 200k shares a day i.e £30k traded. What happens when THX announce they are putting £10m+ aside to buy back their own shares? That's potentially millions of shares a day buying power vs current 200k trading volume - share price will totally explode.

News re buybacks expected after their Q4 results in mid-late Jan. At today's current $130m valuation I think losing on this trade is extremely unlikely.

Funnily enough Argo is the only share i've ever considered shorting because I was that sure of its inevitable failure. That was from 20p and also at 10p when i came very close to committing to the short although on one of those occasions i'd have been margin called before it then started to crash.

There has been no business here for years, a lifestyle company if ever there was one.

‘ January I say 30 - 33’

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So you think they are going to find a new hosting partner and transfer all their machines to the new site all between the 28th December and 31st December so as to have an undisturbed month in January?! Ha okay then!

Another major issue TGR has, which is never discussed these days, is that their operations haven't undergone feasibility studies. Shishir, Mr Graphite, believed he could circumvent the usual route to production and avoid all the costly and time-consuming processes but that's now left TGR in an even worse position than all of its peers.

History has shown that the TGR management team haven't got the knowledge at Vatomina and Sahamamy to foresee issues up ahead , this makes investing in TGR even more of a gamble than it is say for the likes of BRES and GROC that have instead gone down the traditional feasibility route.

I think it's as much for this reason as any that it'll be tough for Shishir to convince debt lenders to sign on the dotted line - all they have to go on is TGRs own internal forecasts which, up until now, have been wildly missed.

What about January seeing as this thread is title ‘future’ - 7-8 BTC?

There are still a few things we need to go in our favour for everything to line up in Jan, a perfect storm if you will, including of course for gold price. A bit of a sell off yesterday and it would seem an important juncture now - a recovery from here would likely mean bottom in on the move to $3000/oz.

Doesn’t make a huge difference fundamentally (cash cow either way) but will certainly help with shifting sentiment alongside the other catalysts.

For those interested I was talking to Segun a few weeks ago and I can tell you that we really are in for a very busy start to the year.

Of course nothing material was shared but he hinted that whilst the PFS will be complete in Q4 if it falls too close to Christmas they will most likely release it in the new year so it isn’t lost somewhat in the festive vacuum.

He also confirmed that they are actively looking into buybacks (something he had mentioned in a previous interview) and that we would hear more on that front soon (I took it to mean post q4 results in Jan).

He also seems very relaxed re the situation in Nigeria. It appeared to me from what he knows from private government discussions that they have the support needed to continue to plan for growth in Nigeria, in terms of both mine life extension at Segilola and lithium.

Have a good Christmas and here’s to a much better new year when it comes to this investment!

Argo will end the year with a few million $$$ and $40m debt and barely any useable assets left. It’ll take true magic to oversee a return from here, a £40m mcap starting point.

If Argo is valued as much as 3p by the end of 2025 Chippas will have done a tremendous job.

No, not necessarily.

Last year one could argue that the TU was essentially a revenue warning, it was there to downgrade forecast for the year.

If no update this month it likely means targets are hit and we’ll get good news in January.

Hoping for something left field instead such as a new contract win rns to really kickstart the recovery.

Sentiment goes in cycles.

It wasn’t long ago Serabi gold was considered, wrongly, too high of a risk because of operating in the Brazilian Amazon yet now they’re up 160% ytd and 240% over a 1 year timeframe.

THX will do the same when it becomes demonstrably clear that they have the federal government support and are going to produce over $100m profit continuously for years to come.

£20m-£25m in Q1 for Dx. Enough to see Avacta through to crucial data read outs in 2025 with the next raise likely following on the Nasdaq.

You're not going to get caught on the wrong side of a placing down here so no need to worry. Something to think about if we see a big rally in share price 2025 after a sequence of good news (Dx sale, nasdaq listing, highly reputable CFO, early p1b data showing clear efficacy etc).

CLSK it looks as close to certain that Argo won’t ever reach 20p now even with a strong bull market - all sentiment around Argo and bitcoin will evaporate completely at the end of the month unless they secure a new hosting deal, which itself seems highly unlikely.

So unless you think bitcoin is going to do something crazy like $200k before then I think the likes of 20p for Argo is but a distant memory.

Took longer than I thought though.

Tough markets. Lack of liquidity on LSE and intense competition for capital. Needs near term catalysts/funding secured/move away from AIM.

A common problem across the space but with CC we can be confident of a move to the US - continued progress behind the scenes will eventually be reflected in the share price here, even if it requires that little bit more patience.

Rough time for all these small caps but what with turning cash flow positive recently and momentum growing this looks like the time to be in on the march back up - added earlier to my small holding for the long term and think this could be one of the big winners in 2025.