Member Info for HarChris

Well I can tell you the convertible price John for the 2019 CLNs, it's 45p.

I dont' share your view that they might agree to a new lower conversion price at a later date, I imagine they'll want done with this what with it having already extended. Shares or payment it's going to be I'm sure.

I do share some optimism though for TGR as for me it was always Shishir holding this back. His stubbornness (or at least perceived stubbornness) led to a board of just him, his daughter and an inexperienced employee overpromoted to executive director. Compare that to the new board with, for example, Anthony James Nieuwenhuy who comes with an enormous amount of experience as a CEO of numerous listed companies.

Shishir is still CEO here though so a lot will depend on what the relationship is like behind the scenes. Are they all happily working together or is there a plan to push him out now they are on the inside?

I know it can be an easy cop out but there's a lot going on behind the scenes - what with the injunction and assay results due. I wouldn't have thought it would be acceptable to buy only for positive news to land days after.

If you ask this question again in Feb/March with the company in a low period then I'd be in agreement with you, but not right now.

It's something that's being formulated now and will be released in the mine life extension plan in Q1 2025.

Worth noting though that there's still ~250k ounces to be mined from initial mine plan with industry low aisc and even lower aisc in the final year due to simply processing the ore stockpile already dug up. And there's satellite deposit finds that will add additional low cost ounces (not sure on figure for satellite deposits).

So yeah you'll have to wait til February/March most likely but management were talking extremely positively about MLE when the gold price was $2000/oz so it's safe to say with gold where it is now that it's going to add significant value.

Actually this is what it said in the 2023 full year results: 'The maturity of all 2019CLN’s were extended

to the last issue date in this series being 1 July 2023 and have now been verbally extended to 31 December 2024

for which the Company’s Brokers Optiva Securities Limited is in the process of obtaining formal consent of all

relevant holders' - it's reasonable to assume that the verbal extension was made legally formal...

Those CLN holders will need to be paid one way or another and it's highly unlikely to come via debt financing.

So most likely it's either they accept discounted shares via a straight up subscription for the exact amount owed or TGR do a placing to cover the CLN and for additional working capital i.e £1.5m that buys them a bit more time and leverage for those debt financing negotiations.

It's not deramping to point this out, even DRealJohnJohno realises it below.

And for what it's worth no I'm not holding right now but if I was I'd be comforted by the recent news. No guarantees that they come out of suspension and get through this situation but a greater chance now with the board they have. TGR back on my watchlist for a possible small reentry depending on what happens next and the price they come out of suspension at.

I would be concerned if EXR were running its cash reserves close to the bone but they’ve almost certainly got more cash than the current mcap.

If EXR can reach cash positivity in 2025 as they are targeting then it’ll mean they are seeing traction and winning more and more business and this valuation will look bonkers.

Not guaranteed but an amazing risk to reward at this level. Let’s hope for a good TU next week.

They have to raise by the end of the year or renegotiate the CLN (again) but seeing as the likes of Leo Koot are holders it’s unlikely they’ll accept another renegotiation. Why don’t you like me pointing that out? It’s a fact. And at this point most likely will come in the form of a placing.

Nothing I post makes any difference to the share price as we all well know, it’s been that case for four months.

It's based on expectation of $237m revs ie 95k ounces at $2500/oz but also uses a conservative AISC well above $1000/oz.

Eminently possible we see 95k ounces at say $1400/oz margin next year which gives $133m. Pumping out huge amounts of cash for the next few years unless POG weakens considerably.

With no debt repayments to make we will see the cash position balloon by the end of 2025 so if it's not $175m like the broker forecasts I don't think it will be too far off i.e close to the entire capex requirements for Douta.

Why? Virtually all of TGRs debt is unsecured so those CLN holders would be near the front of the queue and would get something back if they forced TGR into administration.

TGR can't ignore it like me or you might be able to do with an unsecured loan from the bank.

There is no money available for these NEDs to be paid a salary so it will have to be shares / options.

My guess is that creditors won't want their funding going towards paying off old debt (CLN) and salaries, so what will come first is a placing to deal with the immediate survival question marks and then after that debt negotiations can continue.

At what price and how much is the question? £1.5m @6p wouldn't be the end of the world but something like £2m @4p would hurt the long term investment case.

Premski, go back to that q2 result and look at the rise in POG since - from this quarter onwards thx will be generating over $30m net profit per quarter ie not far off a PE/FCF multiple of 1.

No one denies that Nigeria is a risky jurisdiction, that's why THX has always traded below NAV.

The difference now is that the risk discount is off the charts, especially as this Nigerian government is doing everything it can to incentivise foreign investment.

Remember, THX traded above today's valuation before they had poured a single ounce of gold in an untried and untested nation for large scale gold mines. Three years later and now debt free and generating over $100m per year net profit... that's insane.

Have a look at this: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RSG/senior-management-change-and-mali-update-tbsvyg82huk1vrp.html

$160m payout plus 'Resolute continues to engage with the Government of Mali with respect to the Protocol signed on the 18 November 2024. As part of this, in 2025 the Syama Mine will migrate to the newly decreed 2023 Mining Code. Key changes include an increase in corporate income tax from 25% to 30%, and the removal of fuel duty exoneration. Royalties to the government are to be based on a sliding scale (noted in the Q3 2024 Activities Report and which Resolute has been paying since July 2024); at a gold price exceeding $2,500/oz the royalty rate is 10.5%.The government of Mali will hold a 20% preference share interest, and the remaining 80% interest in Syama will continue to be held by Resolute's subsidiary as an ordinary share interest. The new Mining Code provides for ongoing VAT refunds.'

All of that plus executives been held to ransom and STILL Resolute commands a far higher PE than THX!

Adw, this tweet is for you and shows the cash forecast over the coming 15 months. Hannam aren't accounting for much exploration in 2025 or any acquisitions, and definitely not dividends/buybacks but you can see it's not wrong to say THX could have half the capex in cash to build Douta by about July 2025. The increase in cash through 2025 is going to catch many off guard when it's shown in black and white via RNS:

https://x.com/CHar101091/status/1867238668882309313

Absolutely anything is possible but 20-30p i.e £145m to £215m market range is ludicrous for a company that has no use for 80% of its rigs come the end of the month and will likely get barely a few million if they manage to sell them vs $40m debt.

To say it's impossible would be wrong but it's far more likely to be in the 2-3p range in the next month or so.

The best explanation would be calling it a West African risk discount but for mr it’s beyond the realms of rational at this point.

It is true that THX will likely never command the sort of PE ratios of miners in Europe/NA and so won’t be valued in the billions from $100m+ yearly profits but I still think with time the nonsense valuation will correct itself and we’ll see 40/50/60p.

Well, on the surface the downside to THX was its low mine life at Segilola. This mattered when it was making only $10m a year but matters far less so when there's still 250k low cost ounces to be produced with a margin as high as $1500/oz and with no tax to be paid on the majority of that.

So previously mine life extension was crucial, as was strong economics at Douta, Senegal. Now? Not so much because close to $400m can be generated even before the above comes into play from a net cash starting point (no debt). And all indications are that both will be positive (MLE of a few years + high NPV from Douta).

In other words this was priced right a year ago but now it's not. Given a bit more patience this is a winner.

The post-election protests going on in Balama, Moz could well have an impact on graphite prices, currently Syrah's operations are halted and they are now at 5 year share price lows. Syrah can I believe produce 350kt per annum at Balama but are only actually producing around 90kt due to the graphite price but still, that's a lot of tonnage to come offline (no production in Q3 and still the case in Q4).

On a less positive note Balama is where TGRs Mozambique assets are, well Balama/Montepuez. The on going issues with Syrah highlight jurisdiction risk which won't help with securing funding for those Mozambique assets in the near term.

It's fair to say that it's highly likely some sort of funding is sorted in the coming weeks/arrangement made with CLN holders that keeps TGR alive now, the board restructuring update gives confidence that will be the case.

In what form that funding comes will be key to ever making a meaningful return here however. If it initially comes in the form of equity at a steep discount then the road back is a lot steeper. If they pull off debt financing and/or a CLN with a conversion price above current (suspended) market price then it's very much game on.

Interesting couple of weeks ahead.

At current prices THX should be making around $130m profit in 2025 from what will be a $30m net cash starting point. Not all of that will be FCF but the majority of it will be as planned exploration costs for 2025 are fairly low.

I have been informed of that by Segun personally.