Member Info for HarChris

It’s on the low end for a developing such a large mine.

Worth having a proper look at Resolute.

I don't think anyone would disagree that Mali was a riskier jurisdiction than Nigeria but until recent events Resolute had been trading at a valuation as high as $1.2B. Yes they're a bigger company than Thor in terms of production at 350k ounces per year but they have a short mine life across their mines, have a far higher AISC than THX ($1350/oz this year) and their balance sheet is not that much better than THXs. And interestingly THX actually made more net profit in H1 than Resolute did (it's a slight anomaly but profits next year won't be miles apart).

So yeah if Resolute hit a $1.2B valuation in Mali I definitely think THX is capable of half of that in Nigeria.

Trojan, HUM has crashed because they are in up to their eyeballs in debt and are therefore being bought out on the cheap. There's no obvious link whatsoever to the Mali news.

Here's a quite amazing fact though...

Resolute Mining is in a far more risky jurisdiction and have had their CEO detained by Malian militia and yet they still trade on a far higher PE than THX. In fact THX made more profit in H1 2024 than Resolute and Resolute are still maintaining a $580m mcap!

'When can we get any news re Osun issue?'

Expecting the news re federal government committee report imminently. Certainly before year is out. They are looking into a tax claim of $1.9m although the Osun State has made other claims and actions that up until now have been slapped down by the federal government.

Genghis, would you mind providing evidence of the damage being down to non Mali-based miners? The West African miners I follow haven't seen any major fall in share price today so not quite sure what you're talking about?

Mali is a few thousand kilometres from Nigeria. It's always been one of the African nations i wouldn't invest in (alongside the likes of Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Sudan etc). I'm not sure it's having any effect on Nigeria?

THX is trading at a forward PE of 1.1 now. If they (i) put state issues to bed lowering perceived jurisdiction risk, (ii) keep generating $30m net profit a quarter and (iii) demonstrate strong economics at Douta for modest capex I don’t see why they can’t trade at a PE of 4 or 5 during 2025 - that’s an mcap of over $500m and a share price of 60p+

That’s the bull case, the base and most likely case is somewhere in between, a target of say 35p with not all the above landing smoothly but the broader investment case still in tact.

They are taking almost their entire salary in shares, who’s to say they have money of their own to buy on the open market?

There are companies with £3m mcap and cash of £100k that put out multiple rns’ a week - there’s no way the cost is even in Christina’s thinking.

Would be like Elon Musk worrying about the wine prices in the local bistro.

Worth going back to Q2 financials to see the impact - 23k oz sold at ~$2300/oz giving net profit of $27.5m. That update woke the market up and saw a rally to a high of over 20p before Osun State speculation did the rounds.

Fast forward a few months and (hopefully) with Osun State debacle put to bed and the PFS having been released one would expect Q4, with its record ounces sold at (by far) record high gold prices and a net profit of ~$35m, the August high of close to 21p will be far surpassed.

Does anyone know exactly what happens from here? Will Argo complete a final full month of mining in December or will the machines be wound down before the month is up?

I know we’re talking a big discount but it’s kinda amazing that there’s an II willing to prop the company up for another few months. Just let the poor girl die gracefully!

Jimmy I’m in a similar boat.

I’ve been buying from 1.7p down and now have a large holding that’s severely underwater with a 1.3p average. My lowest buy was at 0.75 and now there’s a further 20% ‘discount’ on offer but I have also been burnt previously chasing the bottom on an AIM stock.

Having said that it is evident that Engage’s platform is gaining traction and is working with some of the biggest companies on the planet whilst remaining debt free and still with a cash position close to the current mcap. Is there really much threat of downside from here I keep asking myself? Hmmm

Good read.

For this year we are looking at ~$90m net profit but 2025 is almost certainly starting at a FAR higher gold price (2024 began at $2000/oz) and ounces lost this year will be deferred to next year... as well as $5m less in interest payable on the AFC senior debt facility that will have been removed.

It's no exaggeration to expect $120m+ net profit for both 2025 and 2026 (gold price being well for the latter). Massive numbers for a gold miner already at net cash and only valued at $140m.

'Many must wonder, here we are sitting on a commodity which is in high demand and yet a Godfather who is either so arrogant or just plain stupid to understand both this business and his reputation will soon be on the back burner.'

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Don't fully agree here. This is the worst market for small caps in as long as I can remember and companies are struggling left right and centre to raise what they need to progress projects. Some on here seem to think TGR are at an advantage because they already have production facilities up and running but those operations have been littered with issues and are currently a drain on resources despite having debt maturing in the near term (not just the first CLN end of Dec but also the second CLN in mid 2025).

It's the combination of a management team that looks totally inept and inexperienced as well as debt maturity that makes TGR unattractive... but hopefully Shishir proves me well and truly wrong in the next couple of weeks and lands a deal that sets the company up for a healthy and successful future.

Will be back to comment around christmas time!

I wondered if the ‘$150m - $175m’ capex requirement equates to Thor’s 70% contribution or the full capex of the project? Anyone know?

If not we’ll find out v soon as PFS is due imminently.

BMN needed a supportive financing partner to survive and a supportive vanadium price - in the end they got neither.

Orion did renegotiate the terms of its debt and put up further capital to buy us time but SPR screwed BMN over time and time again and V failed to come to bmn’s rescue in time.

Can I be sure that’s the long and short of it and Craig is squeaky clean? No obviously not but it’s still my feeling even after all that’s gone on and all the money lost here.

That’s one way to look at it. Another is he inherited $100m+ of debt and never once saw a let up in vanadium prices.

BMN were distressed from the moment he took over and with no let up in V prices got taken advantage of by the likes of SPR.

We’re unlikely to ever know for sure but I blame my losses here on Fortune Mojapelo not CC.

Well we agree on this!

We can talk the state issues til we’re blue in the face but if we look at it simply the THX share price (&MCAP) is lower than it was before a single ounce of gold was poured. Ludicrous.

Nigeria has always been a risk but there’s no question that the risk now with no debt and cash increasing by a good few $m every single week, POG at all time highs and a new bigger project that will initially produce 100k ounces for 10-12 years not too far off… that THX should be valued multiples of what it was as a speculative Nigerian explorer.

I don't think it's sunk it yet just how much firepower THX is going to have now they are capable of making $120m+ net profit for the coming couple of years from a sizeable starting net cash position (end of year will be ~$27.5m net cash).

We are talking roughly 50% the net profit of Centamin (only owns 50% of Sukari), the UK giant that's just been bought out for $2.5B.

There is a war chest now to direct at Douta, at Segilola, to the Ivory Coast, to the lithium prospects and any other opportunities that land at THXs doorstep.

Anyone got any notes from the zoom call? Or know if it will be uploaded at a later date?