Member Info for HarChris

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Adw, I'll admit right now that i'd be mightily disappointed to see the State awarded the $1.9m and it would certainly make the market a bit wary for the future - however i'm pointing out that for now that's the worst case scenario, something that financially can be absorbed with ease.

There is nothing to actually suggest they will be awarded that cash, personally I think the federal government will come down on the side of Thx so let's wait and see. The market is starting to buy with a bit more enthusiasm too even before this report is out (albeit very low volume today again).

Don't forget the land sale last week too, that adds another 225AUD / £115k.

Cash runway right through 2025 before we talk tax loss sale which still appears likely - wish i'd sold some at 0.4p as was tempted to but this is an easy hold for all the news flow over the coming months now.

Thor isn't all about Nigeria anyway now, in fact it will soon be mainly about Senegal. We have seen Segun recently state '$150m-$175m' as the Douta capex requirement - that's for a mine that's looking like 100k ounces for 15 years. If the prevailing gold environment remains strong we're talking capex almost met through internal cash generation alone and then payback within a couple of years.

Nigeria is not the risk you think it is when soon Thor will be a multijurisdictional business -anything too punitive in the future from the state merely leads to Thor moving all of its operations elsewhere.

It’s more of a reminder as we go through the year and into 2025 to those stumbling across THX and wondering if the disconnect on offer is too good to be true.

I don’t think it’s true to say it’s the only reason though, low liquidity and a lack of visibility amongst investors is another reason as well as perceived mine life coming to an end in the not too distant future.

$3m per week profit***, ie payout will be somewhere between 0 and 4 days worth of profit.

Yeah been posted here and discussed previously. We await the official committee report but the state officials have been celebrating a ‘win’ for them which looks like confirmation of their 5m shares (less than 1% of total float) and the federal government looking into the tax liability claim of 3.25B Naira which is around $1.9m.

For context THX will be making ~$3m per month profit through Q4.

Whilst it’s true there are loads of juniors sitting on PFS’ with very healthy economics and that MKA doesn’t own 100% of Hypromag USA this is without doubt one of the best feasibility study upsides I’ve seen having reviewed 10 or so over the past few weeks. Add in the economic moat MKA has and the strategic importance of non Chinese rare earth magnet production, the unique recycling angle even before we talk UK manufacturing plant , potential sale of Songwe and Pulawy Rare Earth Seperarion Project and I conclude that this has one of the biggest blue sky upsides out there. And that’s amongst a lot of healthy competition.

So with a few days left of November YTD gold price is $2675/oz. Let's play it safe and forecast a slight dip to $2625/oz for the quarter, let's also factor in THX's forward sales contract giving an average selling price in Q4 of ~$2550/oz.

25k oz sold at $1500/oz margin comes out at $37.5m for this quarter alone... against a $133m mcap and net cash position.

That's a P/E of less than 1.

Only if you call Q1/Q2 as long term. Realistically you’ve been forced to go from immediate term to short-medium term.

Is it really that big of a deal? You’d expect an $8.5B company to be seeing broker coverage.

Assuming progress is shown in the next trading update we will see one or two things - (i) growth and strides forward evident but not enough to avoid an equity raise further down the road (mid-late 2025?) or (ii) cash flow positivity is reached earlier and funding options are thrown wide-open.

If (i) I imagine share price stays relatively depressed until funding is sorted (1p?) but if (ii) a rerate happens quickly.

Hmm it’s a good question and one I ask myself regularly.

The share price is more a symptom of the lacklustre communication and to be honest those who sold have made the correct decision at this stage. All being well they’ll get back in on good news at a better price than they sold at even if it’s 0.8p or even 1p.

We just have to suck it up and let the market catch up. So if that makes sense I think the market’s both right and that we’ll eventually see a good recovery here, as counterintuitive as that sounds!!!

Ps really interesting LinkedIn post, makes perfect sense to move in that direction. The market and appeal for engage’s platform is broadening

Definitely some confidence returning here and some pretty sizeable buys at 16.5p and above.

Let's be having that committee report then we should quickly see 19p again and beyond.

There is absolutely no question that EXR has positioned itself to see explosive growth in the near future. Considering they are still debt free and have a healthy cash position the progress over the past two years leading to a 95% fall in share price is obviously as irrational as it gets. One of the worst I've come across all things considered.

It shouldn't take much to see a meaningful recovery here.

Surely due initiation of proper broker coverage here?

If the H2 revenue projections are hit and cash flow break even is within sight then this simply has to rerate.

We know the reasons (AIM & lack of communication with the market) but if you came across EngageXr today for the first time, seeing the TAM and the position they are carving out in the VR space, you wouldn't be shocked to find the decimal one place to the right of the current paltry £3.6m valuation.

It’s the sale of Songwe on top of today’s brilliant FS that’ll open the floodgates rather than either news on its own.

Horrible market right now but MKA does seem likely to be one of the big winners.

Seeing as we’re talking actual production between 2027 and 2067 today’s depressed prices are arguably less relevant than the forecasted prices so I’d keep that $500m NPV number in mind when calculating the value here.