Member Info for HarChris

Utter deception to compare Harl, up to its eyeball in debt, vs Avacta's bond that can be converted into shares.

Harl were under pressure to generate cash asap, Avacta isn't anyway close to the same degree. Plus they have every chance of pulling off non dilutive funding along the way via licence deals and partnerships.

Of course Avacta is risky as a small cap biotech but I think it's nonsense to say it's a lot riskier than Harl ever was. And that's from someone who also held HARL but sold due to the debt risk.

Tin price is up YTD and well above historical average so it’s not a tin ‘recovery’ that’s needed although forecasters do predict it to go even higher. What’s needed more is successful execution of the CI2 expansion as that will bring costs down on two fronts, through economies of scale and also the reduction in royalty to Orion. Pull that off and by mid 2025 aisc should be more like $23k and we’ll see healthy margin even at this tin price.

A lithium recovery is even more important.

Not been a good year for many holders Wyndrum.

From what I remember you exclusively posted on two shares through most of 2024, one in which you held (HARL) and the other (AVCT) in which you traded. The one you chose to hold went to zero.

We've all had a bad year.

I'm repeating myself but this is the worst market for small caps that I've ever come across and what you've just described is replicated across AIM. I could easily name a dozen companies that have unequivocally made progress but seen share price erosion.

The key in this market is to be invested in undervalued stocks that won't need to raise funds against what is a depressed valuation - it means the undervaluation has no material effect on long term value because there's no costly dilution. For those like ABDX, fully funded to reach group profitability, it's all about pushing on and making further progress until the market finally turns and the value is realised - whenever that happens to be.

This will come good.

Boll*cks, sure there were rampers throwing our stupid suggestions but sensible posters had been hoping for between £2m and £3m and that’s what they’ve got.

They’ve still got to go and deliver this year but if they do this will do multiples and they now have £3m total to go at it with - risk/reward is the best it’s ever been here.

Well at least they haven’t benefited financially from inside knowledge , if they’d bought in ahead of this they wouldn’t exactly be coining it in today?

Looks like going to have to wait for Blue Mountain progress to see the likes of 0.4p and beyond again.

Well there’s your answer LW, no one did take up the offer

Over $25m has been repaid relating to the Gold stream liability I believe, as of 30th September 2024. What is left isn't even two month's cash generation going forward.

As I said before a year ago there was debt risk - $25m senior debt facility, $20m gold stream liability and a very large accounts payable position, but by the end of this year there is no debt remaining, gold stream liability roughly halved and the accounts payable position reduced.

Couldn't really ask for more just half way though this initial mine life at Segilola and with gold at $2600/oz.

No they no longer give away 10% via the gold stream, it is covered with cash. Yes, it's a liability that will be slowly paid off but the majority has already been paid down since April 2020 with now just $13m to be repaid which can be spread over a number of years (currently down as a current liability so possibly all being repaid within 12 months)

This very much relates to what I hark on about. A year ago THX *was* a risky share but $90m net profit this year and possibly $120m net profit next year completely cleans up the balance sheet with serious optionality re funding Douta.

The fact that there's been no corresponding gain in share price is utterly bonkers and something that won't remain indefinitely.

I’m hoping this is just the start of the recovery leading up to the next update which is likely mid January. The potential is off the scale with the one question mark, in what is the most rotten of markets, being how EXR go about their next funding round.

I’m heartened by the ambition to reach positive cash flow before funds run out however and also that we have a very experienced new chairman that is absolutely ideal for such a thing.

Something left field like a listing on the US markets could really set off the recovery here.

Some do it for the good of the company as well as their larger position. If you’ve got a big holding adding more at 3p and actually helping fund the business is likely beneficial to you medium term vs just buying a tad cheaper on the open market.

These shocking auto generated articles should come with a wealth warning, they are seriously dangerous.

These auto generated articles are naff but THX will be on many a radar once this cash generation starts being seen in black and white.

The first nine months of 2024 were exclusively debt reduction derisking but October onwards is where the cash pile rockets. Once the next financials are out later in 2025 we are going to have a PFS with a high NPV and a cash like rapidly catching up with the total capex cost, something almost unheard of for small caps in AIM.

We will not be stuck at 17p when the net cash position jumps from $2.7m to $30m, to $60m, to $90m, to $120m+ and that is going to happen in 2025 with POG so high and no debt interest to service going forward.

Patience has been needed in bucketloads but we’re getting closer now to share price moving updates.

You said it was cheap at 6p, now you’re thinking it might go 50% lower? That means it wasn’t cheap at 6p, it was doubly as expensive as it could be.

At least you’re starting to understand

Whilst holders of almost every stock on AIM complaining about constant dilution just look at the number of shares in THX upon listing on AIM vs today:

Day of listing - 623.6m

Today - 656.1 m

Just 5% increase in share float over such a time period is pretty damn impressive and largely unheard of on AIM

They are making more money than their market cap. You think they are going to generate $300m net profit over the coming few years and stay at $130m mcap? They are already net cash positive. Their new mine will mean $100m+ profit for the next 10-12 years.

They will bag, I’m as sure as I can be about that, although might take the buy back programme to actually kickstart it

Spot on ShareSleuth, at least theoretically buybacks are far better in our situation although it’s only theoretical - in reality all the company needs to do is announce a plan to buy back shares under ‘x’ price and that alone will see buying up to or at least close to that floor.

This would be a smart move. If they ending up spending £5m or so to keep the share price at ‘x’ price then that’s all well and good and a drop in the ocean compared to the cash being generated going forward.

Yeah, I’m basically you in reverse right now. I’m hoping for the perfect storm of updates in q1 for Thor that sees a doubling or trebling and then I’ll move some into miners if they’ve retraced a little further.

Never plays out exactly as you expect though!

It’s largely disinterest on extremely low volumes.

We need a glowing PFS from Douta as much as anything and dividends/buybacks, that will do it. Until then it’s treading water, especially over this quiet Christmas period.

It’s now my largest investment so something I’ve got to be thinking about too but so many catalysts have piled up for q1 that I think (hope) that it’ll be a different story in a few months time and I’ll be able to reduce at a much higher price.

Thor’s all in sustaining cost is now $850 per oz. The gold price is $2600/oz. And they have a tax holiday through to 2027 so no corp tax hence all profit. Can you imagine if one of the bitcoin miners was breaking even at $30k BTC right now?!