Member Info for HarChris

I agree and so does management, that’s why I know for a fact that they are planning to put out a far more detailed operational update in January than is usual.

Usually this time of year we get an operational update in Jan then the full year financial update in April but management also believe the disconnect has gone on too long and the market needs the numbers now, released in black and white.

Been a long wait but I think we’re close now to a momentum-building plethora of news releases.

Yeah agree with all that, it’s really just opportunity cost of holding an illiquid stock with little to no managerial share price support - many will be tempted to jump out, make some gains elsewhere and try to time reentry for EXR’s recovery. Risky business but tempting when there’s so many undervalued options.

Time for EXR management to improve communication to prevent the above happening so easily.

B2 I believe there isn’t that combination option, they have to decide whether to pay in shares or cash each quarter.

The most curious thing is still the decision of the institution to prop up Argo for a little bit longer in early December. Were they banking on this bull run mindlessly lifting Argo with it despite the lack of future as a bitcoin miner? Had they already forward sold and hence turned a profit still? Or do they actually believe this money can be put to good use building a viable HPC business despite the unsustainable debt that will need to be met next year?

Bit of a mystery but the lack of tr1 is a hint.

Whilst already my biggest position I’ve decided to keep adding as much as possible til the Jan news kicks off for a number of reasons.

(i) Net profit for 2024 will be ~$90m vs $11m in 2023. Yet share price well below 2023 peak.

(ii) With tax holiday right through til end of 2026 and POG >$2600/oz we’re looking at net profit of $125m+ for next two years. That’s more than the total cost to develop Douta in cash generation alone.

(iii) We then have Douta come online in 2027 alongside Segilola for what will likely be three years (2 years MLE, being conservative) operating together generating bumper returns

(iv) Update on buybacks or dividends follows the Jan full year results.

The only real argument for such a depressed valuation is jurisdiction risk yet it would appear from numerous sources that executives at THX have closer links to the federal government than the state officials do - and the fed has ultimate power.

So far, for all the bluster from state officials, they have secured less than $100k in payments from Thx, against a current cash generation of $10m per month.

I agree with that post for the most part but we don’t need VR to take off in the mainstream like we might have once needed. There is a very reasonable argument to be made that VR will have greatest take-up and benefit in certain niches with one of those being education.

It’s why I still think EXR is positioning itself for significant growth but the pace of it currently in terms of revenue recognition is frustrating.

As for future funding… well it’ll soon be time to see if Karthik is all he’s cracked up to be.

Would take a lowball TO right now.

I assume they are trying to get some sort of deal over the line, perhaps a sale of the machines, before they announce.

Expecting the worst later this week though.

The net cash position is where it was expected to be so as I said it's just headline revenue figure - you'd agree actual margins and move to cash flow break even is what matters most wouldn't you?

Won't deny it's a frustrating update though given that we hear from EXR so rarely. Bottom drawer with little hope of any movement unless a contract rns surprises us in Feb/March

It hasn't 'crashed' the share price - others like me are correct in saying the headline in the rns (missed revenue) is disappointing enough to prevent his being the rerate rns but valuation is too low already to crash from here when net cash position is as expected and main goal for 2025 is still on target.

If it’s announced in q1 via a separate RNS that could be the spark that finally ignites a share price recovery.

Could really do with more consistent and regular news this year rather than the drab handful of updates we tend to get.

Obviously not. Back in Jan 2023 they were miles off cash flow positive, if they get there this year the next capital injection will be much more modest to push growth further.

They are carving out a strong position in this education and enterprise space but it’s still relatively fresh. Need a little more time for it to bleed through to the financials.

The aim is still the same, cash flow positive this year. Everything a bit slower than hoped but the cash is there to achieve it.

A mixed bag but nothing that isn’t already well priced in.

It’s a rather strange situation. Cavendish’s base case for 2028 is 8p on expectation of just €19m annual sales by then, evidently possible with the relationships and new business EXR are winning. Cavendish also sees a realistic scenario where growth has rapidly taken off by then exiting 2028 with €62m sales and a share price of 37p.

Yet it seems all the market is interested in is whether or not there will ever need to be another cash injection. Next update is a biggie.

The major difference is that all these individuals were quite happy to work with the other Poddar. Shishir brought them in (Murat, Isobel etc) and then they found out quite quickly that he was impossible to work with. And Hemant hasn’t installed himself in a top executive position, just enough of a role to have some influence over his very large holding.

Anyway I’m done with this. I don’t have a strong opinion other than i was as certain as I could be that under Shishir TGR was going to fail whereas now imo they have a chance of seeing some sort of success. But as ever time will tell.

Nah Shield are in a much stronger position now, $7.2m revs per quarter and growing and with the recent AOP subscriptions are funded right through the next six months and to group profitability if quarterly growth continues.

We find out Monday but most likely the majority of machines are now offline and from January onwards, at current difficulty, Argo will be mining 8 BTC per month tops.

Need a rabbit out of the hat in the coming months or it's curtains.

no way can you equate my issues with puruvi and alastair making up two thirds of a ftse board vs har*hit getting the job of head of sales and marketing, a non executive, non director role. and still i’d say the difference in eligibility is stark:

‘ har**** poddar is a young and dynamic entrepreneur. har**** is the co-founder of safearth, india's leading b2b digital renewable energy platform which has deployed over 500mwp of distributed solar across india. har**** is also the co-founder of advanced graphite materials, where he leads development of new products and is closely working with large consumers of graphite across india.’

no issue with any individual personally but the fact shishir was forced to appoint a and p as directors just to have a board should have been enough of a red flag.

For a bit of fun whilst waiting for next week's PFS here's a recent one from Australia that gives us a bit of a look at what's to come. Company called Meeka Metals.

Average of 54k ounces per year for 10 years

Average gold price $2540/oz

AISC average $1250/oz

$621m pre tax cash flow giving $390m NPV

I think THX will be looking at double the ounces over a similar initial mine life, similar (if slightly higher) AISC, so perhaps something like $1.1B pre tax cash flow and around $650m NPV. Not bad for a company producing so much cash that they could cover the capex cost entirely internally by mid 2026 if they so desired.

Ps Meeka Metals has the same mcap as THX despite being an explorer and developing a mine half the size of Douta. THX has Douta and $300m+ of free cash flow still to come from Segilola alongside all before they extend mine life in Nigeria.

*Only caveat is Douta is only 70% owned by THX, for now.

'Very presumptuous of you to state this is all the Chairman’s doing.'

Presumptuous of you to claim the 'requisitioners ignored the result and worked their way in' rather than John's more balanced take on matters.

All we know is that despite all the promises even after Shishir won he's managed to reach 2025 without any funding secured and perilously close to the abyss. Remember when you kept refusing to accept that they were going backwards in terms of production and how every year was an improvement? Do you now accept that the growth is finally over in a big way? 7100T produced in 2024, perhaps 3500T at a push? That was always one of your arguments for supporting Shishir.

I'm just amazed that you could watch the company going absolutely nowhere under Shishir and yet always come to the same conclusion that it was in fact everyone else's fault, because outside forces are all undermining him behind the scenes.

I've got no stake currently in this, I sold out because it was too risky to hold with Shishir and two inexperienced subordinates doing his bidding but now there's a real chance of a turnaround and I'm happy for those that stuck with this investment.

I'd hazard a guess that you'll see a return in the future by luck rather than by backing the right horse.