Member Info for HarChris

Whilst I'll avoid I can see the potential for a decent pump given the crypto space right now and Cel Ai's ability to sell Solana to keep a cash raise at bay if necessary - best of luck!

Appreciate the post.

You make some valid points but as of 30th August there’s £140k of trade payables and £210k of cash. I suppose they could go on for a bit as a Solana cash shell but even the £30k Ned salaries and £40k FD salary will take up the remaining monies soon.

Perhaps could survive without some additional funding for a little while longer whilst hoping for Solana to keep rising but hardly a genuine reason to invest.

I have but i'm not seeing you give a figure for what 'tiny' means.

They managed to bring down total employee costs to £635k from a whopping £1.5m but how low do you think they are going to go? We're talking £210k as of four months ago, that almost certainly is at/around zero now with either a cash raise to come or those Solana tokens being sold to cover working capital and wages.

If i'm wrong please explain as I'd love to learn, rather than deflection through vagueness.

Definitely seeing the start of some buying pressure today with a £10k / 60k shares buy gone through amongst others.

I'm fairly certain Douta PFS will be released by this time next week (latest end of week).

How tiny? Last year cash burn was reduced to around £100k per month. If they've halved it again that's £50k per month and all the cash gone (cash figure given as of August 30th).

They can't reduce it much lower than that unless they take a massive pay cut/ forego salary. And even then they are a Solana holding company at that point with no funds to invest in AI.

Am I wrong?

So Between August 31st 2023 and August 5th 2024 Cel Ai had burnt though ~£1.15m of the £1.77m cash they had on hand. With the remaining ~£650k they gambled £400k on Solana, unbeknownst to shareholders, and it happens to have risen in that time to £630k as of very recently.

So looking at cash burn as of today Cel Ai must be out of money and are just a cash shell holding Solana and will now need to sell some each month to pay the wages of this company that has absolutely no other means of business?

Yesterday was the pump before this surely sinks to zero unless Solana rises faster than the wages to keep the staff on payroll, something that is rather unlikely.

I still expect an RNS today, whether during trading or soon, after hour,s to explain what's going on.

Total shambles indeed.

It might but I can guarantee at the start of the year with BTC at $43k and Mara $23 that you wouldn't have believed me if I'd said bitcoin was going to hit $108k in December before settling back to $95k as the year ends with Mara actually being down 25%.

I'm sure there's fortunes to be made in the crypto space but I think the hype of bitcoin miners might be over.

History doesn’t repeat itself when it comes to market pumps. Just like when Game Stop and AMC’s season came back round again it wasn’t anything like the first time.

I don’t think we’ll see another ‘2021’ even if bitcoin goes to $200k this cycle.

As for Argo… awful that mgmt have chosen not to disclose the current situation re end of hosting agreement.

Agreed that $100m now could be worth it but it would be disappointing to sell it for less than that just because the rare earth prices are depressed today.

For example from the DFS base case sees payback period of just 2.5 years after construction with 15.5 more years of initial mine life to go, generating a total of $2.1B in post tax cash flow. Today's Nd / Pr price don't matter if MKA go it alone because it's also a 2.5 year build time so really price from 2028 matters now.

And what with the war being waged on Rare Earths who's to say we won't end up seeing the Adamas upside scenario play out which would mean billions of dollars of cash flow and over $800m NPV.

In that case things aren't looking good - just thought i'd offer some hope to those trapped in this suspended share.

I hope there's some sort of positive resolution next week anyhow.

‘ Songwe was 300m plus to make 550m.’

NPV is the profit made for a project discounted to today’s price AFTER capex, in other words the capex only matters in terms of the ability to raise it / the slightly heightened risk from having a larger initial debt on your books. Generally speaking any project with a positive net present value is economical so a $559m npv project is clearly massive for a company valued at barely $30m mcap.

At the right price though most would agree I think that a sale of Songwe would be a good move.

Seeing lots of expectation for gold to have another strong year - https://www.cityam.com/why-the-gold-price-will-continue-to-rally-in-2025/

Remember Segun has recently stated that Thor can keep AISC to below $1000/oz through the next couple of years. With predictions of gold strengthening further and peaking close to $3100/oz in 2025 we're talking potentially $2000/oz margins average in the coming years, astronomical profit and cash generated if that happens.

Next week is a biggie.

My money is on a large placing at around 4p that covers the CLN repayment and extends the runway well into 2025 giving themselves more time to get a large debt financing deal over the line.

I'm sure we'll hear something by Tuesday.

Just look at one particular Non Exec Director, Chief Kayode Aderinokun. One of his recent jobs was 'Special Adviser to the Government of Osun State of Nigeria.' Reckon that could stand Thor in good stead or not?

Another thing to remember here is that over 50% of the shares are owned by just 8 institutions and between Segun, Aderinokun & Adeoye (another Nigerian NED) that's another 12% of the company. The share float is tight so when the good news comes in Jan this could rally motor.

I know market is anything but rational but it's crazy that ECR traded around 0.3p for most of 2024 armed with just half a £million from the placing of 190m shares for early exploration work at the likes of Lolworth and Tambo and now, with just 287m shares placed ECR could soon by one year further on in their exploration activities yet armed with around £3m they are still trading around 0.3p.

Cashed up with a real chance of reaching production at Blue Mountain within six months this is a completely different opportunity now.

Right now the share price disconnect is almost entirely down to the perception that Nigeria is as hostile a jurisdiction to operate in as Mali is re Resolute and yet the reality couldn't be more different.

Whilst Mali executives are being detained and held to ransom over hundreds of millions of $$$ Thor's largely Nigerian board are wining and dining with Nigerian ministers and Thor are winning awards for their environmental and local philanthropic work.

The market will wake up to this reality soon.

Expect one on Monday though.

Mcap is £6.6m at 0.3p. The tax loss sale is about £2.2m (is that before or after advisor fees?) + £950k gross from placing + £110k from sale of land in Victoria. Would imagine cash by end of March (assuming cost burn between now and then) would be about £3m, perhaps a tad under i.e 40%-45% of mcap.

Reading between the lines management think they can get Blue Mountain to production and cash generating before these funds run out, hence the reason for taking a lower amount now rather than a larger amount in staged payments. Achieve that aim and this will do 5X or more in 2025.

It's material news, they can't just casually state in the monthly operational update that 80% of their machines have been offline for 10 days and are now expecting revenue to fall to ~$600k from $3m per month.