Member Info for HarChris

Then all those that accepted such an offer would be kicking themselves but that's gambling/investing for you, there are unknowns until they are known.

It's not going to happen, it was just a hypothetical. I don't see much chance of a hostile takeover attempt before any major discovery and given any major discovery the sale price would be many times $80m.

As bad as things are getting in Mozambique TGR have even bigger problems right now in Madagascar/ surviving so it’s hardly surprising they haven’t bothered to report on the side of the business that has never even seen a drill bit.

An early risk adjusted buyout would have to be more like $80m at a minimum to have any chance of going through.

Would be disappointing for most but a chance for long term holders to redeploy those bolstered funds into other beaten up small caps.

So no update and the next time the market opens on Monday the hosting agreement with Galaxy will have ended.

It’s no major surprise, was researching how long the s19j pro’s last and it seems they tend to start degrading from 2 and a half years old through for another couple of years life, so Argo’s machines at Helios are in their twilight years now.

Can’t see what could turn this around in the short term and cash will be tight again in a few months time.

A reminder that for 2024 THX will post $90m net profit in a year that started with a $2030/oz gold price and that saw production fall short at 85k ounces.

THX started the year with $7.5m cash and will end it with ~$25m having also used~$40m of cash to completely remove the AFC loan as well as reducing the gold stream liability by roughly half. There was also significant spending directed at Douta for its PFS and new Douta-West add-on as well as a large drilling campaign to extend the mine life at Segilola.

2025 is starting with a gold price above $2600/oz and with likely 90k+ ounce production. There's no large loans to repay nor large interest repayments and there's less exploration drilling scheduled, depending on when construction of Douta begins.

Going to be one hell of a year.

Finally agree with you on something.

It's right to point out the market cap difference but ABDX started the year fairly tight on cash with cash generation a long way off. The progress made this year and the healthy cash position abdx is now sat with is such a significant derisking and in any rational market would have led to at least a doubling of market cap rather than standing still. I expect it will come in 2025.

Would like to thank Muck for all his/her research on here, you make this one of the better BBs to check in on.

The ~250k oz left at Segilola for the initial mine life easily gives $300m free cash flow. A portion has already been dug up so it's just processing costs and we're easily going to see over $1000/oz margin on the rest so $300m is extremely conservative, could well be $400m. We can't currently put a value on any extension at Segilola as there's still too many unknowns but Segun has implied we're going to end up with a good few hundred extra ounces there.

Douta PFS will reveal that project's value soon but 100k ounces at 10-12 years is going to be generate well over $2B revenue and I expect we'll see a NPV of $500m+ . It's too soon to ascribe any value to the lithium.

I wholeheartedly believe THX will see a fair amount of that value reflected in the share price over the coming years ie a share price of 60p+

'Why would ii do 4.2 million if Thomas didn’t let them in on the plan? Surely there is a plan right?'

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This has gone on for a while with Argo. Back in January many were asking me the same thing, 'why would an II buy in £7.8m worth at 20.5p a share if there's no future here?' and my answer was 'because they are gambling on catching a wave from a bitcoin bull market before the hosting agreement comes to an end in December.'

They gambled at 20.5p and they lost. IIs did it again in July at 11.25p and got that wrong again, too. This is a similar situation, they are gambling on Chippas finding a solution and there being enough hype around it that they can exit their position quietly for a profit.

Having said that isn't it funny that we never get any TR1s here despite the large number of shares being place, oftened to just one II? Perhaps these shares are being forward sold before the subscriptions even take place!

That was meant to say ~$65m*

I think Segun said previously that they will work accounts payable down to about $50m, a level they are comfortable with long term.

Suppliers across the business. Let's say someone fulfills a contract and are due payment, Thor will have something like 90 days to pay them and so until they are paid they are an entry in the accounts payable section. It's been discussed on here numerous times and Segun has addressed it, there is a plan to reduce it modestly but there is no need to use precious cash reserves to work total group liabilities down to zero.

Those payments will all be met within 12 months and new ones will have accrued hence accounts payable position remains relatively flat (plan is to pay it down slowly). The end of year accounts will show total assets having reached $300m, against ~$55m accounts payable + ~$12m gold stream liability - i.e a very healthy balance sheet.

I don't think it's much to do with the state issues anymore but the state issues did totally kill momentum just as the THX share price was taking off alongside the ATH gold price, so it's done its damage.

In this market momentum is everything otherwise you fall back into low volume and gradual decline via trader apathy. Luckily there's more than enough news due imminently (and it really is imminent) for interest to hot back up and a rerate to take place.

My money is on January being our month.

Is it? I thought they had previously said $50m-$80m range for reduction? So good news today but somewhat expected.

I’m not Jason’s biggest fan but you can’t question his commitment to these companies he’s involved in. Just look at his buying as soon as he could with Maru, not pocket money…the same will happen here too when there’s an open buying window.

Somepikey, the next rns is likely to be announcing the exit of Helios without a new partner - advising people to load up before such negative news is highly dangerous and serves just to try and find you a better exit price.

I personally think you're trying to convince yourself that it wasn't your own lack of poor understanding of the market that led you to lose so much on Harl but in fact just bad luck/deception from CEO. You were betting on a highly indebted company in a sector with notoriously tiny margins that needed to overcome an enormous and ever growing debt. I got out and was right to in that instance, let's come back here in six months to see who's right in this one.

No, I think your ridiculous claim that Avacta is riskier than Harl ever was is utter nonsense for the reasons I stated (most notably having debt over 6 times the value of its market cap).

I also think that if the market had such a dim view of Avacta like you it wouldn't have retained a £175m mcap, instead it's much more reasonable to argue that the 'market' (for want of a better word) does tend to lean towards the conclusion that Avacta will end up a success but is wary in the short term for a very fair reason, its funding requirements.

And no I don't think it's fair to compare an LFT for a very specific use in a very specific pandemic environment to therapeutics division that is going after cancer treatment.

And I've only properly bought in since Alastair was removed, I wasn't interested in the diagnostics and always thought it was a mad strategy to try to build that alongside so I think having US based Christina Coughlin with her US and therapeutics focus is a much needed step change that makes past criticisms before her tenure somewhat redundant.

No, Avacta isn’t in the ‘funded to group profitability’ category like ABDX but I hold them for different reasons.

I said no default risk, which is true. Claiming that Avacta is riskier when Harl had something like £130m debt whilst still heavily loss making and a £20m mcap to raise against is nonsense.

In this market if Avacta was likely to fail it would be valued a hell of a lot less than the £175m valuation it currently has. Unlike all the others you name Avacta has funding optionality and across UK and US market soon.

Avacta are well placed to deliver in 2025 and comparing it to failures like SNG (missed both primary and secondary endpoints in its one and only trial) is misleading

My point being Harl fell under the weight of its enormous debt, Avacta has no such problems with zero debt default risk.

Yes it's a horrid market and perhaps some are naive to be so complacent but there is a clear, logical plan being shaped that starts with a Dx sale with partnerships/raises following off the back of improved, bolstered data next year and an ever increasing US presence.

Execution risk is real but there's a realistic path being carved out that would mean a very positive 2025.