Member Info for HarChris

This should be well worth a listen so sign up now if you're following Thor. I've put a good few questions to the CEO and he is renowned for answering virtually any question posed to him.

A good chance to get the message out there of just how perfectly placed THX are for future growth plus I expect discussion on either the initiation of the dividend policy or buyback scheme.

It’s also on the Toronto Stock Exchange but I hear you.

Still, despite the rubbish liquidity is a massive comfort to hold a share with virtually zero risk of placing shares. In THXs case they’re not even issuing a single share to fund their ~$175m new mine. That’s unique for a small cap.

Just looking in here… why discount so much and cause such disruption for such a small amount of cash?! Why not raise big and be done with it?

That’s the one you lot are in right? Sorry to see that ugly discounted placing.

Maybe it’s time you followed me in my gold plays? Slow and steady wins the race with fully cashed up highly profitable but unloved gold miners!

Completely agree Rich, it appears that business had essentially ground to a halt as of recently and now it's a literal reset and restart that needs to occur. Not an easy task but certainly building a more than capable team to make a right fist of it.

Isn't that true for all investing? I mean we make educated decisions on numerous aspects fully understanding that the future cannot be wholly predicted. Take jurisdiction risk... it's there for every company, especially those operating in Africa. Bad news can strike at any moment. Is the risk bigger today than it was say six months ago? Arguably, but also arguably not. Nigeria has been discussed to death on here well before the Osun State articles starting circulating in late September. One could argue that the initial shock has already been absorbed and at least we are seeing some due process going on with no rash federal government overreach. There is a chance to buy in at an even steeper discount today (share price was touching 20p and looking to break out at time of state issue news) despite the actual cost to THX so far being $70k or whatever that sum was they paid.

You're perfectly welcome to be more cautious than me but to dismiss my valid reasoning out of hand seems a bit lazy to me. If nothing else Segun comes across very genuine and I think it's reasonable that 15 weeks down the road from the initial claims that he has insight into what's likely to happen following the release of the report so for him to say what he said today in an RNS should be deemed material and meaningful.

I think it pretty likely that the company will be swallowed up by AOP in the near future - whether that be for a few pence or above 5p depends on the next 3-6 months and whether STX can reach profitability whilst standing on their own two feet as they continue to guide.

I hope my decision to buy back in doesn’t backfire too!

She’s a credible person that posts sober, factual info across the commodity space so I don’t see why not. I think I’ve noticed a slight increase in frequency of posting on the rare earth space too.

Meanwhile Neodymium price ticked up today… a move north would really help alongside all the interest in Mkango right now.

This Fast Markets correspondent posts almost exclusively about giants in the mining and commodities space like Barrick, Glencoe etc so to see HyProMag is on her radar seems significant to me:

https://x.com/andreahotter/status/1878814392374247442?s=46&t=L7k3nxfxN_9xwjjIedxUrA

Our views aren’t mikes apart. I sold out of STX last February after that disastrous update but have today bought back the smallest of positions and might add to it.

There is an argument to be had that Santosh has done an impressive thing in avoiding a deeply discounted raise in 2023 and has potentially got STX to within touching distance of group profitability through debt and two $10m AOP subscriptions at 3p and 4p vs the SP low of 1.1p in 2023.

As I said in my earlier post today risks remain here and we could well see another step backwards in the Feb update but there is the possibility that the worst is behind them now with meaningful upside to come. I’m in for that and might add a bit more in the coming weeks.

Erm no not really to be honest.

Now I mightily disliked Greg and thought he was a totally crooked, deceptive liar. If you look back at 2023 remuneration he was the only one that was paid extortionate wages and arguably his lack of insider buying was a tell, in that context. Genuinely unbelievable that he paid himself $1m in 2023 whereas no other director got even as much as $100k.

Would it be positive to see some director buying? Sure, but I don't think it necessarily tells you all that much. It's reasonable for a director to work hard in their role and aim to be successful for the bonuses, the options and for the career progression it will achieve whilst also investing in diversified assets other than the company they run.

It certainly wouldn't hurt to see Santosh go into his pocket and buy some shares on the open market but it's no guarantee of anything... just look at the last director buy a year ago, the chairman's 2m buy at 6.1p.

It’s not the point. There hasn’t been a viable business here for a long time but there was always a chance that Argo could see its share price pumped in a bitcoin bull market and hence offer up a chance for management to raise enough to actually pivot into a workable business (ie HPC or some new crypto angle).

But from next month onwards they won’t be considered a bitcoin miner of any stature and hence the likelihood of the share price getting swept up with other miners becomes far, far lower.

It’s really that simple.

''Everyone here is making their own guess, but nobody knows. ''

We're basing it on a number of factors and so it's with educated reasoning rather than pure guessing. What we do know:

(i) This current government is trying hard to sell Nigeria as an attractive place for foreign investment and has complete authority over the state

(ii) The High Court swiftly issued an 'interim injunction and restraining order' preventing the Osun State Government from interfering in Segilola operations

(iii) Thor's board is largely made up of experienced and respected Nigerian businessmen that are seen at events with important federal officials, including those at the top of the federal mines ministry. This differentiates the situation enormously from the likes of Resolute in Mali.

(iv) Segun could have kept it as simple as saying 'we await the findings from the federal review' but he went much further today to state his belief that the claims will not be 'substantiated'

I'd also add that THX are making so much money now that they can really up their initiatives in the state, something I'd be delighted to see. Throwing an extra $m or two into good causes can make a significant difference to thousands of lives for what is merely a fraction of what they are generating/ a tiny loss in dividends for shareholders.

Well it wasn't all that long ago that STX was trading at 150p+ a share based on the potential for Accrufer.

It has taken a long time with hairy moments in terms of the finance situation but with the recent support of AOP and the extremely positive update in November it does look like they might just have reached the long awaited tipping point with growth taking off and group profitability reached and beyond in 2025.

There's a massive market for STX to continue chomping away and if it does keep taking market share there will be many, many multiples to be seen from today's £25m market valuation - no guarantees though so doesn't come without risk.

I’m happy to move on if you are. You’ve made your point if you want to call it that, today feels more relevant to focus on the rather positive actual update rather than hypotheticals.

Well I don’t think you’re making a great point if it’s just ‘mining in Africa is risky’ - we all know that. If THX had the same business producing the same numbers in Australia it would be valued over $1B so the question is how much risk being factored in is too much?

Considering the balance sheet and the move to multi jurisdiction producer way, way too much IMO. I still target seeing this at a $0.5B business.

Noel no offence but you don’t know enough - Douta, the new mine, isn’t in Nigeria. So if you’re here trying to argue that Nigeria is too risky then you should at least know that they are diversifying away from Nigeria with that ten year mine. And then onto a third jurisdiction although early days re Ivory Coast.

Happy to debate with you once you’ve done a bit of research.

So yeah in summary the $90m net profit this year will have seen a swing from $16m net debt to ~$30m net cash whilst funding also reducing inflated accounts payable position and gold stream liability and funding significant drilling across all projects.

With gold price 30% higher than start of last year, no debt repayments, no interest, accounts payable at the level targeted and less drilling (after q1) we should see cash position balloon $100m+ and then put aside to construct Douta alongside very modest debt financing.

A year ago you could not have asked for more.

I’d say it’s as much to do with the short mine life Noel but the market is unduly concerned about this - recent drilling and comments from CEO estimating 3+ years extension should ease concerns and takes Segilola to 2030. Seeing as Douta will be online in 2027 with an initial ten year mine life THXs future will be secured.

Yes but THX actually turned net cash positive after q3, this update just reiterates that. Net cash as of Dec 31st will be around $30m so quite a turn around, although we don’t get that sort of detail in operational updates.

As for the rest of the profit it went into debt repayments (no more going forward), it paid down accounts payable, it reduced the gold stream liabiiity, it paid for significant drilling for the new PFS and mine life extension.

This year with gold price 30% higher, no debt repayments and drilling largely completely we’ll see $30m+ per quarter profit largely all crystallising into cash.