Member Info for HarChris

You’re wrong, debt at the start of the year was a lot higher than that plus the cash position will be about $30m come the end of the year.

So that’s ten’s of millions of debt paid down, $5m+ interest payments that they no longer have going forward, accounts payable reduced significantly and a bolstered cash position.

Balance sheet is as clean as they come and with a massive stockpile to sell at even lower cost at end of mine life, plus we start the year at nearly $2700/oz gold price to boot with no hedge going forward.

Goes back to what I was saying at the weekend - so much going on here that we should expect news on a continuous basis from all sorts of angles that’ll keep investor interest high. Exactly what is needed for an AIM stock in this market.

Can also see from the gold price realised (and discussion at the weekend) that they chose to close out their forward contract this quarter, give or take a few ounces.

So now every penny of this gold price as it inches towards $2700/oz is being realised meaning revenue going even higher this quarter and beyond.

And if they go and lock in a new hedge it’ll be at $2500+/oz so win/win from here against THXs industry low all in sustaining cost.

And it didn’t disappoint!

Reminder, previous record quarter was Q2 this year where they posted $53.8m giving $27.5m net profit.

Today they announced ~ $62m revenue for Q4 (unaudited) so looks like net profit has exceeded $35m this quarter.

Don’t mind the minor delay to Douta as it now gives more catalysts later this quarter and choosing to hold back on dividend/buyback announcement means it comes separately later this month. . Looking forward it IMC Wednesday.

You’re right the share price is here because of previous management decisions. We’d all like Christina to have significantly turned things around SP-wise within her first six months but she deserves just a little more time before questions start being asked.

I take the October Heights payment in shares as recognition that catalysts were at least three months away (ie why waste cash when share price is only going to retrace from lack of news anyway?). The decision on next Heights payment will be telling - switch back to cash and it’ll be a signal of what’s coming near term.

They’ve been strapped for cash and seeking a large debt financing deal since at least mid 2023. Shishir emphasised non dilutive financing measures for yonks but by early Jan they were forced into a small placing to bridge the working capital gap as well as the director loans.

To get to the end of the year without anything sorted what with the 1st CLN maturity due was the final straw.

'Generally all works 10x slower than what people think on here hence why SP’s drop even after good news.'

_____________

That's true but with MKA there are so many news avenues that delays in one won't prevent news on other fronts. So alongside that SPAC nasdaq listing there's HyProMag US which is likely going to gain significant attention when it lands US government grants and funding, as well as near term production for the UK and German plants and numerous other territories to follow.

With rare earths being top of the news agenda / China US trade war there's reason to believe we won't get what often happens with AIM shares, ie a period of excitement followed by months and months of radio silence.

To be honest no I don't think so. This is all we have regarding the forward contracts, from Q2 financial statements and then Q3 financial statements and so I think a small portion of the current gold being sold is hedged, although THX don't use that term.

As at 30 June, 2024, the Group held outstanding gold forward contracts for 20,300 ounces at an average

gold price of $2,176 per ounce with settlement weighted at 2,000 ounces a month until the position is closed.

These contracts were entered in order to protect the Group`s revenue against gold price variability.

____________________________

As at 30 September, 2024, the Group held outstanding gold forward contracts for 12,450 ounces at an

average gold price of $2,222 per ounce with settlement weighted at 2,000 ounces a month until the position

is closed. The Group may choose to settle the position at an accelerated rate. These contracts were entered

in order to protect the Group`s revenue against gold price variability.

_______________

It'll be coming to an end soon, probably this current quarter and then we'll be looking at realising the entire $1800/oz margin if gold has held up ($1800x100,000 ?!).

I wonder if we'll see a new contract taken out close to current gold price? Locking in some of the gold for another 12 months at say $2600/oz would be pretty significant.

I got a lot of stick on here for criticising him over the past year and repeating what you’ve just said, that TGR is dead with him running things unchallenged but I’ve probably had more communication with him than most and personally started to doubt his competence a fair while before the issues truly came to light.

Yes he lives and breathes graphite and his businesses but it was his way or the highway and his way was ineffective and problematic most of the time.

You have to ask yourself why this has happened now. It’s either one of two things:

(i) Shishir is having no luck on the finance front and has come to the conclusion, of his own accord, that what funders require is a different more credible board in place or

(ii) Funders have made it crystal clear that the main stumbling block to concluding financing is the board as it was and so a change had to be made or TGR were guaranteed to fail.

My money’s on (ii).

I do think there’s potential for a recovery to be had here now despite the difficulties for the sector - for the first time in ages I’m actually keen to buy back when the opportunity arises.

Sure it might but just throwing out random share price predictions doesn’t offering here does it?

How about leave the bb to those actually discussing the substance?

Well assuming they could get something close to $5m for their used machines it would be worth refurbing the rigs and flogging them, even if it takes a good few weeks and quite a bit of manpower.

The problem that follows is convincing future funders that this tiny 0.25EH/s bitcoin miner with $35m net debt commands a valuation of tens of millions of $$$. I mean, what sort of idiot is going to buy that?! (Ps I know we’ve seen it before!)

'Who is going to trust investing in the company?' you ask? Many now there's an actual credible board in place.

The immediate term might be worth sitting out depending on what they are forced to do re funding but there's a viable business here with considerable assets once things have settled.

8 months lost by voting for Shishir at the AGM but still time for a turnaround I reckon.

More like $3m per week net profit at current gold price, crazy numbers.

I get that the big costs will disappear, ie the hosting/power costs at Helios but it's reasonable to assume all the work to refurb these machines just so they could potentially find a home won't come cheap and the $12m operational expenses won't reduce considerably?

Could end up with a tiny operation in Quebec producing $750k per month at about break even but it would be a slow crawl towards debt default in 2026. And haven't the machines in quebec been operating since about early 2020 hence very much nearing end of life? Or am I mistaken on that?

No, not the point.

In terms of an agreement they’ll have been looking at various options and various sites for months, probably through most of H2 2024 and yet they are where they are, without an agreement and without a home for their machines.

It’s highly unlikely they’ll pull off a new agreement and in the meantime how do they bring costs down enough to survive more than a few months on 7-8BTC worth of sales?

No I don't see the link. Shishir already had tens of millions of shares so his last act was to hand himself millions more shares before the new board with actual oversight came in. He can now reap the rewards if they manage to steer this ship back in the right direction.

The CLN holders actually have a choice, demand their cash and make TGR come up with it or take shares at a discount - we don't know what they'll decide yet but I'd be surprised if a majority chooses shares in the current situation.

I think we can safely say now that anyone claiming Shishir is a straight shooter has seen their argument fall apart.

They’ve known about this agreement coming to an end for a good couple of months now and are now in dire straits - that tells me they’ve failed to find a workable solution.

And if anything gold price is itching to go higher. Could well be looking at almost $2000/oz margin soon.

Can you imagine if a year ago someone told you THX would go on to make $90m net profit in 2024 and would be beginning 2025 with a $1750/oz AISC margin?! The current margin isn’t far off the full gold price a year ago - the only downside of 2024 was slightly lower production than targeted but that’s will be transferred to this year… so we’re looking at perhaps 100k ounces at an AISC of $900/oz!

One could argue that Douta PFS is a quarter behind initial target and Segilola extension is taking its time but until mid 2024 Thor management were prudent with their cash resources, focusing on debt repayments above all else. Now it’s all systems go, there will be no pause between PFS at Douta to DfS to construction - they can crack on even if the debt financing has concluded.

No holding this back now.