Member Info for HarChris

A few things to expand on.

Segun is a very conservative ceo who doesn't ramp or exaggerate in anyway. When he says the net cash position has increased by multiples he means it. Q3 the net cash increased $5.4m. Revenue was just $40.1m... this quarter it's ~$62m, enormous difference. With no reason for costs to have increased that's an extra $21m+ cash than in q3. Even if accounts payable was reduced $5m we're still talking a $21m increase in net cash to ~$24m.

He answered my question re forward contracts. What it means is that this record breaking quarter also included 8000 ounces sold at just $2250/oz, ie one third of the gold was sold as part of the hedging contract. Now there's only 4500 left at 'just under $2300/oz so all things being equal there's every chance Q1 2025 goes and beats this recent record quarter.

The term he used re the Osun state situation was that he expected the company to be 'completely exonerated' - that isn't wooly language and seeing as the report is being published any day there's absolutely no reason for him to say that unless he was quite sure of the outcome.

I guess my only disappointment was his refusal to give more detail on dividend or other alternative (he was reticent to mention the word buyback despite knowing this is likely being worked) but we know they aren't going to sit on hundreds of millions of $$$ in cash so it's coming without a doubt, the only question is whether it's Q1, Q2 or Q3 of this year.

Not going to happen overnight but the chance of this reaching 50p+ this year is growing by the day.

Great slide on social responsibility and community development - Segun really highlighting the positive work they are doing in the community, the training programmes, over 125 stakeholder meetings etc etc

It really stressed how unfounded the claims were from the Osun state last year.

I meant no update ie no new hosting partner found or buyer for the machines.

We expect that anyway but they have three weeks to come up with something or the share price implodes, likely for good.

Clsk, true. You would have expected a slight decrease from November as difficulty also increase slightly but really it’s just 2 days less as November only has 30 days and it’s an extra day mining in Canada so possible to still end up with the same amount of bitcoin mined.

We’re half way through Jan now with no update, does feel pretty ominous.

Be better to see it build a little more first before the news is made official via rns.

You’re getting ahead of yourself with 5p TNR but wouldn’t rule out that sort of level later in 2025 as anticipation builds during the height of the first full drilling season in Zambia. Keep the faith pal.

You must think there’s tremendous value here then to be trying to explain why a 150p / 3X offer could potentially be accepted.

Come on, it’s pretty obvious. Perhaps they mined a few extra days in December before Galaxy forced them to unplug their machines but they’ve already stated they are refurbishing the machines so they are offline now.

If they were still online we would be informed of that. They don’t need to inform us that they are offline because that’s what the market expects now the hosting agreement is over.

They still had debt to repay in Q4 and interest repayments + it looks like worked down the rest of the forward contract so call it ~$23m net cash as a fair estimate.

It’s now that the net cash position really starts to balloon, as much as $25m-$30m increase per quarter.

This is just an operational update, THX release their net cash position four times a year but not immediately after the quarter ended. Here is the update from q3 financials:

‘ · Transitioned from a net debt position of US$2.7 million as at June 30, 2024 to a net cash position of US$2.7 million as at September 30, 2024.’

After a record breaking Q4 one can calculate at an absolute bare minimum that net cash is now $20m but realistically must be close to $30m given the cash generation from the $62m revs seen in q4 at such a margin.

Beevorma, Shishir’s determination not to dilute shareholders has led to them going absolutely nowhere for a year and unable to cover the CLN. He backed himself to pull off a debt deal since about August 2023 and failed.

If the new board go the equity route next it’s because frankly there isn’t any other option.

I’d imagine financiers will want to see operations back up and running in Madagascar and producing cash before they part with tens of millions of dollars for expansion.

Well I think $250 is the highest they expect net price to ever go so got to see a rather sizeable jump in prescriptions to get to group profitability. That’s 20% QoQ to go from 43.5k end of q3 ‘24 to get to 90k prescriptions by end of q3 2025. Tough ask to maintain that sort or growth rate at this stage wouldn’t you think?

Management have previously claimed a peak revenue potential of $450m annually so getting to even half of that would make this investment a major success.

Jk, stop picking fights for no reason. I’m clearly not defending the company, I am literally saying they have got themselves in a mess financially and hence they are issuing shares instead of paying run of the mill business fees because they will be running on fumes and now have no choice.

Anyway I agree with all that you wrote in that post.

That's part of the problem and an avenue we went down many times before jk. You moan about them issuing shares, I highlight that there is likely no choice. It's taken a number of maneuvers including the director loan to get to this point without an equity raise, the reason for issuing 740k shares instead of paying that £10k in cash is because they will be preserving what little cash they have available in order to potentially make it through this period without a placing.

For me it's all too tight and unless they really start generating significant cash and soon we will see a discounted raise in H1 2025. And given the market that discount will probably be steep.

Well if that October $225 net figure isn't an anomaly and holds through Q4 and heads towards $250 in Q1 then alongside prescription growth they won't be miles off that must-to-be-reached cash flow positive position - by my rough calcs that would require 60k prescriptions a quarter? So 10% quarter on quarter increase from Q3 2024 through to Q2 2025?

It’s possible but unlikely that they go ahead and make €3m-€5m per year going forward without any slip up or misstep… but even then it would still take not far off a decade to reach a net cash position assuming no equity raised.

That doesn’t mean DKL is overvalued but arguably there are far ‘cheaper’ and lower risk options across the AIM market right now, even if 2025 ends up a profitable year.

I think it’s reasonable to assume that scientists that move into the private sector and top ranks of pharma management *are* interested in money, at least to a modest degree. She’s not some eccentric mad research scientist that’s never left the lab.

BBN, when we talk timeframes eg 2 year extension, is that based on current output of operations? In other words if management estimate 2-3 years mine life extension is that ~180k-270k ounces?

Whilst there's no question that things are looking up here the difficulty is overturning that €33m of debt (as of June 30th interims) - small yearly profit isn't going to do it so DKL do need to see both cashews and palm oil businesses generating significant cash plus, most likely, an equity raise at some point to clean up the balance sheet.

That will hang over them for the foreseeable, especially when there's plenty of similarly valued companies on AIM right now that are cashed up with no debt whatsoever.

David, it’s been addressed before so some of your answers can be found here. Whilst we won’t get exact timeframes until (i) Douta PFS is released and (ii) updated mre and mine life exemption plan at Segilola, we have been informed previously that Douta can be online by 2027, maybe earlier now the cash is there to prevent delays - PFS in this quarter, DFS should follow and then construction beginning either late 2025 (optimistic) or early 2026.

Segilola will be mining til minimum h1 2027 as it is. We have also been informed by management that they are as sure as they can be of a minimum of a couple more years on top of that and likely many more years than that (5-6?).

So producing at Segilola til ~2030/31, Douta from 2027 to 2038? And with all the cash Ivory Coast developments will push on and who knows what else in the years to come.

In the meantime I’m wondering if Argo can get some sort of raise away before nest month’s disastrous operational update… they really should try to leverage this inflated valuation whilst they can.