Member Info for HarChris

Absolutely no reward for holding any AIM company medium term through a rise. Frustrating as hell.

I’m sure some traders bought in for the China-US trade war/tariffs pump. Not one of Trump’s inauguration orders today and off those traders sell.

I’m sure we’ll still see rare earths related protectionism in the weeks ahead.

Major success needs a much higher lithium price, especially after such a fantastic partnership with SQM. What the tin ensures, in the meantime, is healthy revenue (&cash after CI2 expansion) whilst we wait for lithium to really motor again.

The recent modest gains in lithium price are very welcome, continuing north another 10% or so and interest should come storming back. Fingers crossed.

WM, you are once again treating this like any old pre revenue small cap that has no other option but to raise and raise until they reach cash generation... After an excruciatingly long and drawn out p1a the next stage is going to run much quicker and generate significant data in the not too distant future, data from candidates specifically picked to show maximum efficacy from AVA6000.

So next comes the DX sale and after that, mid this year all being well, the door to partnerships and licence deals swings wide open. That should radically transform how Avacta is viewed and with such an improved valuation would be an opportune time to list on the nasdaq and see a further cash injection to speed up progress even further (pipeline assets).

There’s been nothing to state the warrants have been exercised has there? It’s just your assumption for now?

It is far, far harder to value a small cap biotech than it is your average company - simply scrolling through to find the cash position and then applying a typical multiplier doesn’t cut it.

Essentially it’s worth what the future TO value is discounted based on the chance of success/likelihood of said TO happening - whilst also acknowledging that volatility will be high in the intervening period before any TO eventually lands.

I think we’d all agree that £2.50 a share in May 2021 was overvalued and most likely we’ll look back in six months time and conclude that 50p was a gross undervaluation in Jan 2025 considering all the progress that has been made alongside that 80% share price fall

It did always track the tin price but that was with a more positive lithium outlook alongside - the decline in lithium price and then subsequent forecasts of longer term depression in prices (at least compared to previous expectation) has been the main driver of this weak share price performance.

Until not long ago AV was targeting the majority of revenue for the group being lithium, with tin viewed almost like a byproduct - hence the change from Afritin to Andrada.

You look at QBT, at Cel AI, at Vinanz, at GST …

If Argo’s hosting agreement had simply happened to be coming to an end in June 2025 rather than December 2024 they’d have got swept up in this Trump mania too, almost certainly.

So close to surviving off that fact alone / crypto is a crazy space.

Sure Noel, here's the question: 'Financial Times recently had a piece on the terrifying crackdown on mining companies in Africa's coup belt. What is Nigeria doing to reassure and incentivize investors? Why then is Osun going after Thor for taxes?'

And the answer: 'look, I think... it's not really my place to say but I can just speak about our experience in Nigeria. It's not in a coup belt, it's in a politically stable jurisdiction... i don't think there's been a coup in Nigeria since 1984. We've had democratic governments and opposition parties in government for a number of years without issue. The mining act in Nigeria is extremely enabling, unlike other jurisdictions in the coup belt that's been mentioned in this question. You're able to own 100% of your projects, you have free movement of your currency, repatriation of your dividends. You have exemptions on your capital equipment and your mining equipment as well. So, it's a very compelling jurisdiction in terms of the mining act, the federal government tries to make it enabling, they are trying to invite and attract international investors, they are trying to kickstart the mining sector to make more of a contribution to the GDP.. We think there was a misalignment between the Osun state and the federal government - that's being resolved now. The regulatory body we deal with is the federal government and they oversee all mining in Nigeria.'

Whilst we wait for Douta PFS it's useful to look at other recent ones that have been released.

Last week West Red Lake Gold announced PFS 7.2yr mine life, average of 67.5k oz per year, gold price $2317 and a high AISC of $1681/oz giving ~$400m post net cash flows and $315m NPV.

Douta is expected to be something like 10yr mine life, average of 100k oz per year (more than double production), AISC unknown but recent discussions suggests ~$1450/oz. Therefore for Douta could be looking at post tax free cash flow inching towards $1B and NPV over $500m, higher if they go with a forecasted gold price of ~$2500/oz over the period.

West Red Lake are an explorer still, THX is net cash positive, debt free and hopefully makes $300m FCF from just Nigeria in 2025/26 alone. Difference in valuations? Very little.

Posted ~$90m net profit in 2024, eliminating all debt and reducing other current liabiilties substantially.

Record quarter in Q4 of $62m at ~70~ gross margin and ~60% net margin.

Net assets risen to ~$210m as of Dec 31st (awaiting audited results for exact figure)

Gold at all time high, AISC margin now close to $1800/oz, greater than the gold spot price in early 2023!

At current gold price and 2025 forecasts and now with no debt to repay looking at ~$160m net profit with similar amount in FCF.

Either maiden dividend of buyback scheme to be announced this year - previously stated H1 for this.

PFS this quarter for Douta, a much bigger mine that will make THX a multijurisdiction producer in a few years time.

'High level' PFS that should see a rapid move to DFS and then construction - will be built without any dilution, split between debt and cash.

Looking to develop assets in third nation, Ivory Coast.

Risks - Jurisdiction risk being in Nigeria, close to neighbouring Mali which has become an inhospitable nation for investment. Also 2024 saw some state interference before the federal government stepped in with an injunction preventing them from interfering. Committee report from the federal government due any day that, we have been told, will completely exonerate Thor.

Short mine life in Nigeria, just over two years left ending in H1 2027. Exploration drilling has been on going for years and we await detailed updates on the mine life extension plans later this year, likely mid year. Some amount of extra mine life appears nailed on but we are yet to know if we're talking 2 years (~190k ounces) or more like 5 years (450k+ ounces)

Gold price - could retrace from these all time highs. If we see a new forward (hedging contract) in place next quarter at ~$2600/oz that will minimise any potential risk from gold price movements.

As for being a paid ramper… well I’d never accuse anyone of such a thin, or the opposite, but I’m sure a casual observer would think it far more suspect that you suddenly turned up posting vaguely related negative article after article just as the THX share price started taking off rather than someone like myself that has been here a long while backing my investment.

I don’t need to be paid a fee to promote the company, having tens of thousands of my own £££ invested is enough of a reason to have me putting the effort to defend posts like yours, even at the weekend

It’s relevant and that’s why we discussed it previously and put a question to the CEO. Investment case for Thor is as long as your arm, the risks primarily focus around the fact it’s based in West Africa, in a neighbourhood country of Mali.

You might not have the time to do your own research but I will repeat that I think it’s ignorant to refuse to spend any time trying to have your line of argument derailed and challenged and instead belligerently going at it for a week or so now.

That’s your prerogative just as it’s mine to respond as someone (as you are have to admit) has done a lot more research than you regarding this company.

All the best

For this reason following the discussion on here someone put the question to Segun Lawson at the recent IMC meeting, something along the lines of ‘with the crackdowns going on in Nigeria’s neighbourhood, in the African Sahel, can you ensure Thor’s operations won’t be a victim of this’

The question was answered so feel free to go spend 30 minutes of your precious time to watch the IMC q&a to save yourself looking ignorant time and time again.

Yeah the risks of Mali have been discussed to death on here recently. Not just Barrick but also Resolute. This is a good bb where it's possible to debate all sides in a balanced way.

If you hadn't just turned up suddenly with your single issue scaremongering you'd know that.

You mean that’s what they’ll said back before the AGM? That was eight months or so ago and the new CEO, who effectively will make the decision on this, wasn’t part of the requisitioning group but I agree it’s reasonable to assume that something along those lines is what they’ll be going for.

Like the management team or loathe them there is no benefit to hyping things up now as the cash raise has already happened and we're possible just a week or so away from being fully funded for the foreseeable.

Positive commentary likely means positive news will follow now. I'm holding on to my hat now if we start seeing a meaningful move north in the weeks and months head.

As long as meaningful progress is seen in terms of prescriptions (at this higher net price) then today's share price will be deemed very cheap and any further capital injection, if required, will break the downward trend and for once come at a higher level than the previous.

The update in the coming weeks is the biggie. Need to be seeing 50k exceeded to be on track for reaching cash positive status by the end of 2025. See that and it's really game on.

Interesting to come back to this discussion after another more months of solid profit making. From late September taking June 30th numbers:

'Current Liabilities are $107 million that includes the Accounts payable of $71 million.

Other outstanding items included in this $107 million are:

Senior debt - AFC loan. $6.5 million plus interest, EPC contract. $3.7 million, Gold Stream current liability. $14.2 million plus interest

So another c$26 million just for these 3 items.'

___________

We await the financials from Dec 31st but interpreting the recent information from Segun the above is now looking something like:

Accounts payable ~$55m (working towards being current on an ongoing basis of $45m)

AFC loan - $0, EPC contract - $0, gold stream liability - ~$11m.

So that's the $107m current liabilities down to ~$66m. That's why cash increase won't look that dramatic but the debt/liability risk is all but eliminated and now cash piles up from this point forward (the above will be brought down just slightly to ~$50m by end of 2025, the rest (sans dividend/buyback) piles up as cash.

Aldebaran, you’re misrepresenting what they are saying. They aren’t claiming it’s one or the other, they are saying it is both , it both doesn’t work and it’s too good. It is the best technology yet the technology is a dud. It does what Dox does without the side effects but it doesn’t do what Dox does without the side effects.

Welcome to the world of Avacta doublethink.