Member Info for HarChris

It quite obviously isn’t in the ARCM-Anglo JV licences but surely this is good news? That’s a hell of a lot of investment committed to tenement adjacent to the licences, must surely suggest they think there’s a lot of copper there.

Wow sub 0.6p, didn’t expect that. And another £2k for me added.

With this gold environment I still think we’re going to see a full turnaround in H2. Risk/reward is phenomenal.

No one could deny that progress has been made recently but the question is whether or not it’s too little too late thanks to the enormous debt that has accumulated over the past half decade. It’s all well and good posting positive ebitda but what that means in reality is still being short of group profitability, which means more funding is going to be needed - so where does it come from? The last time around debt funding had to come from one of the director’s himself, likely because there was nothing else on offer. And if it comes from equity, well, at such a lowly valuation it’ll be heavily dilutive.

Between a rock and a hard place right now unless group profitability can be reached soon.

It does if you don’t have faith in a step up in production through the rest of the year and/or AIMS have had enough of supporting re the gold loan.

The risk here is still very real however today’s update shows things aren’t as dire as many feared and the enormous potential upside is still very possible in the months ahead.

Amended for the worse, again, but not massively different to last amended terms.

As we were. Suspension must be lifted soon…

It really is quite easy to see how profitable GRL can potentially be - they have managed to wash their face with just 2300 ounces over 5months and with gold price a fair bit lower for much of it.

The target for such a period is 5000 ounces which would be ~$9m cash generation if the former is about break even, $9m per 5 months ie over $20m extrapolated for 12 months.

The upside for simply reaching the target six months late is enormous.

You have to remember that the all in sustaining cost is the total cost to mine per ounce… what they are looking for with double the grades in pit 1 is double the ounces for almost the same cost.

In other words my guess is AISC is about $2200/oz at the moment but will be comfortably sub $1500/oz, probably closer to $1000/oz, if they achieve their target.

We’re not there just yet but at least they’ve kept afloat without a raise and have H2 still to turn things around.

‘perhaps the difference is that I am emotionally unattached to this stock and really could care less.’

__________

Don’t kid yourself, you are emotionally attached to Avacta in many ways and it’s hard to believe you couldn’t care less as you simply wouldn’t be stimulated to check this BB dozens of times a day otherwise.

I enjoy the discussion personally but it is laughable to convince yourself that you’re unattached - your dopamine levels will spike when we get an RNS just like the rest of us!

ID, the reason I haven't much mentioned it is because as far as i'm aware the seasons are not as pronounced in southern Ghana as they are in northern Zambia. Don't ask me why as they are at similar latitudes but yeah in Ghana the rainy season is generally much shorter and I'm not aware of it being significantly disruptive.

No we won’t find out how high because the 30th June accounts relate to 2024, when production was so much lower. They won’t be great reading but it’s all about 2025 and particularly this H2 to come.

It’s clear how profitable they will be with anything from 600 ounces per month and beyond - the question is whether or not they achieve it finally.

I've added @ 0.68p, much better value than adding at 0.6p with no idea what was going on behind the scenes. Especially as recent seller appears to be out.

Metalhead, I don't completely trust the numbers given out here , for example do they include Jan 10th pour as being 2025 or just a percentage of it, my guess is they included it but all the same I was expecting much worse given the silence and that terribly vague tweet.

Rainy season behind them and with huge margins even with pretty low output (that should drop to sub $1500/oz easily) this is all still to play for.

Short rainy season April to June, so they are nearly through it now.

Yes I think so but we all had it chalked down as much lower due to the very vague tweet which suggested 550 oz (actually 505 oz) recent pour might have been for a full two months ie even lower than what you're saying... and with it the share price has fallen 50%.

We all knew it was likely production would ease off as they exited pit 2 but the main thing is that they are ploughing on with the very limited resources they had at the start of 2025 and are in a position to see that step change in production now.

Will be adding today.

I’m delighted with that update. Anyone saying it’s a step backwards completely ignores the fact that the share price has crashed to this price because everyone was fearing the worst… and the worst it isn’t.

All still to play for which we know , if successful in H2, will mean many multiples from here. Expect a positive day of trading.

I wasn’t responding to you… although you probably knew that anyway but saw it as a chance to remind the bb for the thousandth time how you aren’t so underwater like everyone else.

Near term revenue from BM isn’t going to be enough to hold off a raise, that’s pretty much certain.

The two possible non dilutive means are the ~A$2m from Leviathon jorc and the tax loss sale of MGA. Don’t expect either to come through in 2025 to prevent another placing but it’s a possibility. And I suppose (to a lesser extent) a left field surprise from fourth antimony drill hole BH3DD04 culminating in an asset sale.

A placing end of 2025 is currently most likely imo although if BM is producing and generating meaningful revenue with full licence applied for I would still expect placing to take place well above today’s lowly 18p price.

Made me laugh though… ‘ Rumours in the the Big Smoke say he ran...dyor’

Yeah it’s the talk of the town in The City at the moment, tons of rumours about Alastair. Silly sausage forgot to sell his massive holding though.

Millenium Capital have been really going for it with their short, without enough volume they are controlling the direction of travel at the moment.

Need an II to start buying or further accumulation from Cosmen to reverse this downtrend.

By my calculations they are likely mining 15BTC max, so revenue of ~$1.5m a month. I believe that’s considerably lower than any month from 2022 to 2024, years in which they still lost tons of money.

They must be out of cash now so it’s fascinating to see what the next RNS is - do they try the bitcoin treasury angle to pump up share price for another raise?