Member Info for HarChris

Let’s see Peggy but I think all the juice has been squeezed out of this. Only going much lower with actual bad news rather than silence / positive JV progress taking longer than we all hoped.

1p seems a pretty sturdy floor til news.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ARB/restructuring-and-directorate-change-v6f11ifzrxnho44.html

A lot going on here - going to take a few reads through to fully grasp!

‘ HarChris you make no sense, talking about limping through to end 2026 on one hand limping whilst paying for a Botswana drilling campaign on the other ROFLMFAO’

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I never mentioned a Botswana drilling campaign, I mentioned Mawana Fold land sale.

I’ll put it down to infant comprehension.

Nick has very much said they are fine til larger Anglo payout but if they choose to raise a few hundred £k against a £15m valuation it’s not going to change the long term potential one iota. So not fussed either way.

H&M?! G&A that was meant to be.

You’re right if costs remain exactly the same although it’s well within management’s control to defer salaries next year until that November payment to get them over the line. Other than that there’s the possibility of Botswana Manawa Fold land sale and a chance warrants are executed this year if a meaningful discovery occurs in Zambia during this drill season.

They are not going to raise a few £100k in 2026 just to get them through to the big Anglo payment, simply deferring some H&M costs will be the obvious action.

No wonder Citadel's shorting has had no effect... unless they are working with them and shorting to keep share price contained whilst accumulating.

Rgbuk, the jig plant is well on its way to completion and actually much of this funding will go to paying back the $2.5m loan + interest as don’t forget, it was a short term bridging loan which is due in August.

In others words they used that cash to build the jig plant but they don’t have the cash to repay the loan.

The valuation relative to debt has been worryingly low for too long, making it impossible to (somewhat) painlessly raise their way to easing the debt burden. This point was always coming but then only getting it away at such a deep discount completely limits the upside now like you’ve said.

It’s possible everything goes right from here and those buying in at this price do well but there’s a lot of factors still stacked against them so I think it’s one I’ll continue to pass on for now - GL to those still standing.

Yes, wrong due to the dollar pound confusion but also should have some cash left in the kitty, just not enough for the ore sorters and jig plant.

They will need to start generating cash at Uis but every reason to expect so with tin at $33.5k and AV choosing not to hedge because he expects tin price to go higher.

Shocking? It's just as expected, if stronger on the cash position than many were claiming as they screamed 'placing incoming!!!'

£1.635m + £0.5m in November will easily see ARCM through to the following November where they'll receive another £0.5m and soon after ~4m.

Quick scan can’t see much of interest or concern - cash is solid, down from £2.4m June 30th 2024 to £1.635m Dec 31st, should last til much larger cash payment at end of JV phase 1 ‘

‘Expect to continue to explore and unlock the potential of the Virgo Project licences’

As we were, waiting for drill plans for this 2025 dry season.

So the placing/subscription was oversubscribed, meaning 440m shares. Add Youval’s debt conversion shares and retail offer and the total comes in at approx 675m additional shares.

Painful considering it only modestly reduces the debt but it does allow the time and space to reach group profitability in 2027.

Yes it’s 364m shares for the £2m placing/subscription shares, 107m of which are being bought by the directors.

Then there’s up to 55m retail shares available.

Finally €1.2m still owed to Youval is being converted into 188m shares. So a total of approximately 620m new shares and 1.2B total shares in issue, slightly more than a doubling..

Tough on holders but this was coming, debt was unsustainable and profit still too far away. There’s a chance from here of turning things around given time but still a tough ask and allows for very few missteps along the way.

Today V1per is where the comparison breaks down.

BMN went under because Fortune watched the share price rise from 1p to 49p and right back down without issuing a single share, taking on huge debt instead, only for Craig to come in and try to get an equity raise away at just 3p.

ATM today placed at a price they’ve sat below for most of 2025, allowing for the completion of the expansion that more than doubles their production and will bring down AISC far lower… and it’s already lower than the tin price as it is.

I don’t think execution from Viljoen has been great these past 12 or so months but this equity raise sets them up very nicely as long as tin price continues to play ball. And if lithium recovers it’s a totally different proposition altogether.

They really should turn the corner from here with 2026 being the year - now fully funded for both the pre-con and jig plant ATM should be producing over 2000t contained tin, a more than doubling from the current 900t level. With that the royalty to Orion comes right down and through economies of scale we’d expect lowering of total costs - how low I’m not sure but certainly below $25K aisc as they are already sub $30k even with the low output and high royalty.

We should be seeing big margins on 2Kt+ tin production, a major step change.

Acam 59m shares

JLE Group 84m shares

Talent10 150m shares

That's some serious II backing over the past few months.

It’s disappointing for sure but it also goes to show that there’s a floor on how low the share price can go all the while the JV is continuing without a hitch, and that’s about where we are now at 1p. The JV is worth too much for valuation to go any lower than this £14m.

Let’s hope we get some explanation soon on why there’s been no drill plan released.

I keep repeating myself but deeply discounted placings are much rarer right now, besides for desperate companies raising to merely keep the lights on.

A new example every day. Today, Andrada market price 2.85p, placing at 3p with sticky long term investor involved - share price up.

Well once they go below the threshold the figures become meaningless, for example Marshall Wace aren't likely at 0.39%, they are somewhere between 0% and 0.49% ie we just don't know.