Member Info for happysparrow

Thanks, Ezhik. That's helpful.

INA Acquisition SPA long stop date of 17 April 2023.
RNS on Monday expected, good or bad.

RNS 3rd April:
'Despite the lost production at the Capella field, Arrow is on a trajectory to exceed 3,000 BOPD in the near term. '

RNS today:
'Current corporate production with the Capella field shut in is approximately 2,635 BOPD. With the Capella field at full production, we estimate an additional 300 BOPD would be added to corporate production for a total of 2,935 BOPD. The Company expects production numbers will improve once the RCE-5 well has reached equilibrium'

That is 365 BOPD short.
Will production from current wells (excluding Capella) make up this shortfall?

https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/construction-to-begin-on-solar-project/article_f90e03b4-d8d2-11ed-bd48-9f5654409a1e.html

https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/shell-saves-the-day/article_ee240ef4-d8d1-11ed-8616-3fcef53ec2ec.html

https://newsday.co.tt/2023/04/10/customs-seize-250000-in-illegal-honey/

https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/oil-production-lowest-in-a-generation/article_ee7d40aa-d67e-11ed-b4e3-33cd4f803dfb.html

From MT on advfn (Thank You):
Auctus Note

Arrow Exploration - Target Price 45p - Auctus Advisors - April 3 2023

The RCE-5 Well encounters one of the largest net pay to date in the RCE Field

* The RCE-5 well encountered 90ft of net oil pay across the Carbonara C7(36ft) and Gacheta(54ft)

* This is the third successful well in the 2023 campaign. RCE-5 encountered the largest net pay in the current programme.

* The well is expected to add production and reserves and will be put into production in early April.

* The rig will now move to Carrizales Norte where three wells will be drilled.

* We estimate current production at about 2,100-2,400 boepd, including 350 bbl/d net at RCE-4(Natural flow) and 400 bbl/d net at RCE-3 (now on pump with the pump rate being progressively increased)

* Overall, the remaining eight wells in the 2023 Programme (including RCE-5 not on stream yet) could add a further 2,200 bbl/d to 3,800 bbl/d of net production by YE23. We continue to conservatively forecast 3.6 bbl/d production in 2023 and 4.4 bbl/d in 2024.

* We reiterate our target price of 45p/share(our ReNav)

Carrizales Norte - is a very high chance of success prospect - (75%, but we assume 50% in our forecasts). The Carrizales Norte-1 well is a low risk step out well considered to be an extension of the Carrizales Field. On success, it could allow the company to book 1.8 mmbbls of 2P Reserves.

Valuation and Cash Flow - We continue to forecast that the company will continue to hold US$25m of net cash at YE23, and US$60 at YE24 under our average $92 Brent assumptions. This represents circa 100% of the the market cap. At an average of $80 Brent from Q2/23 to YE24, we forecast YE Net Cash of US$18m increasing to $55m at YR24.(85% of current market cap). Our ReNav of 45p/share represents more than 180% upside to the current share-price.

https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/how-govt-slow-action-could-cost-taxpayers-almost-1-billion/article_44455ce4-d34a-11ed-836c-dbd8eba8ac9a.html

Canada is open on Monday. https://www.tsx.com/trading/calendars-and-trading-hours/calendar
Initial results seem overdue.
Will we see a 'leak' and significant rise/fall on TSX on Monday?
Will TXP put out an RNS on the TSX on Monday? Or a significant tweet?
Will TXP hold back results until all tests are done; or until Bidround announced? (much discussed on advfn).
Either way, what will be, will be.
Good weekend all.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Spills-Plague-Colombias-Petroleum-Industry.html

Flavourshaker - hope this helps: MT's expectations (on advfn) are that we will be sold off when production reaches 7500 - 10000 bopd, presumably to Parex. However, are these companies appetite to be involved in Colombia diminishing somewhat? [Note: ' Parex (US$450mn, down from US$513mn)]'. Is the price they would be willing to pay also diminishing? Yes, some way off, and a nice position to be in, but long term investors should factor this in to their calculations. Just who do we sell the business to, and at what price?

Also:
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/analysis-ecopetrol-propping-up-colombias-battered-oil-sector

https://www.bloomberglinea.com/english/oil-and-gas-companies-cancel-at-least-60-contracts-in-colombia/

Older article:
https://www.reuters.com/article/colombia-oil-idUSL1N34O1MT

These articles' content have implications for AXLs endgame.

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/colombia-ep-hit-by-contract-suspensions-cancellation-requests

From EHL on advfn (Thank you for sharing):
'Joe on production numbers:Our plan is to press release the corporate production number once we have all of the wells on and stabilized. The wells take time to bring on and avoid early water production. We hope to have an update soon. ThanksJoe'

Assuming 'all' means up to and including RCE5, it suggests to me this aforementioned update due about Late April / Early May ? (Around time of CN1 spud).

Thank you, smkr.
5.3% of Wandisco
https://www.wandisco.com/investors/shareholders
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/wandisco/news/rns/story/x8eolex
That would hurt.

Yes, the selling has been aggressive, probably averaging something like 22p to 24p. (I think he bought around and about at 14p ?). So getting out at at a profit.
We also don't know whether he has sold 3% or almost 6%, that is, how much more he might sell.
The crucial question is whether his action is specific to AET, or whether it is market related (and thus one might expect sales of his other stocks).
If it is just AET related, then he is getting out fast, presumably before some bad news hits (further delays), based on something he suspected or learnt in February (which coincides with the downward movement of the share price) or was confirmed for him in the March 7th RNS that he then regarded as too high risk - and that it was better to bow out now with quite a reasonable profit. That is a rational move.
Of course, he may have found out matters are worse than expressed in that RNS - he is in a better position to know than we are. That's the gamble of holding here.

https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latest-news/militants-kill-9-soldiers-in-attack-on-colombias-military/
'In addition to the attack, Patiño said, the ELN has been increasingly harassing civilians in the departments of Cauca, Arauca, Chocó and Nariño, engaging in a “flagrant violation of the norms of International humanitarian law that they claim to abide by.” '

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/update-1-colombia-cano-limon-covenas-oil-pipeline-pumping-suspended-for-12-days/ar-AA19c53a
'Oil company SierraCol's operations [includes Cravo Norte] in Arauca province have not been affected by the suspension of pumping along the pipeline, it said.'

https://sierracolenergy.com/cano-limon/
'Oil is evacuated via the Caño Limón–Coveñas pipeline, which is operated by CENIT, Ecopetrol’s midstream subsidiary. SierraCol Energy has strategic spare storage capacity in the event of outages, and alternative export routes.'

Does anyone know AXL's storage capacity, and available transport routes?

'Lost the plot'. That made me laugh, Rift.
RG will have his reasons - whether it's related to AET or not. He'll be far closer to what's going on here than anyone posting on this site. Give him some credit. Has he downsized his holdings in any other company recently? Information on this might help us to guess his motives for selling here.