Member Info for happysparrow

Good information on Oso Pardo now can be found on advfn. Thanks all.

https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/young-negotiations-ongoing-with-venezuela/article_79c29a5e-e55f-11ed-87e6-c3e835eec7cf.html

See end of article. Some haggling going on resulting in delayed announcement. Likewise have we some haggling with the onshore bids? Are we waiting for deep-water bids to be resolved before onshore-bids settled/announced ?

Thank you, Rob.

a couple of articles from Curtis Williams:
https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/ngc-to-sign-mou-for-lng-export/article_75032f00-e3d0-11ed-b807-db02f76a19ca.html
https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/slow-progress-on-dragon-gas/article_ebd08114-e3d0-11ed-aa57-2f48d09badfe.html

Thank you, FS. Much appreciated.

Note page 25 of presentation - which suggests to me extension needed before OS wells drilled - it mentions Future: Drill CN wells, Drill Gacheta wells, but only says 'Oso Pardo Extension' not drill OS wells.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Colombias-Embattled-Oil-Industry-Hit-Hard-By-Exxon-Exit.html

1) Of any relevance to us?

2) I think our Oso Pardo wells are conventional drilling, yes? Do we have any need for fracking?

3) Also - our 2 wells to be drilled this year at Oso Pardo - are they dependent on receiving the production licence extension and/or acreage extension (is this one and the same thing? - it's not clear from the April presentation, pages 22-24).?

Thanks for any information on this.

Complete guesswork here, tradeemup, but I've the feeling that this might be their thinking: the 3rd test - intermediate zone - is the prize; and the 4th and 2nd tests are the ones with the next greatest potential, in that order. Thus they could probably comingle the 2nd and/or 4th test with the 3rd test for a combined commercial production, whereas the 2nd test may not be commercial in itself. But who knows, until the tests are done.

'We are encouraged that the initial test of the Royston-1X well successfully confirmed the presence of light oil in the subthrust sheet,'
This was important. It opens up the possibility of deeper exploration drilling - Kracken?

https://pgjonline.com/news/2023/april/colombias-cano-limon-covenas-pipeline-attacked-for-ninth-time-in-2023
'It was not immediately possible to establish how the suspension of oil pumping had affected production at oil fields in Colombia's Arauca province, including those belonging to private companies SierraCol and Parex'.

https://trinidadexpress.com/news/local/natural-gas-crisis/article_67e44128-e183-11ed-8809-a7cc1e30ff1e.html
Pigeons coming home to roost?
NGC and Government need to get their act together - pronto.

Thanks, Scott. Very useful summary.

Regards: 'two development wells there should be drilled in Q3 or Q4 2023.. They will not come on-line until well into 2024 because a 1.5 km pipeline from C pad to the main cascadura facility has to be built.' - if I had the funds coming in, could hire the workers, I might take the gamble of constructing the pipeline (at least the bulk of it) whilst the wells were being drilled. Getting that extra gas sold 6 months early might be worth the gamble?

https://menafn.com/1106029785/Parex-Resources-Announces-Resumption-Of-Operations-At-Capachos-As-Well-As-The-Timing-Of-Q1-2023-Results-And-Annual-General-Meeting

https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/shell-drills-dry-hole/article_7eac0a90-de67-11ed-a1a8-cbc2d4a45998.html

Almost there, but some caution:
INA - completion now expected early May. Some signatures still needed (We don't know who's, or whether they will be obstructive.)
Sonangol - licence extension offered with improved terms. We don't know what these terms are, and whether acceptable to Afentra. Some haggling to be done? Could add to delay.

BUT it does now look like both transactions will go through (sometime May/June/July) - which was far less certain a few hours ago.

And RG still selling down?

Agreed, (generally, for TXP has a fixed-price contract for its gas). I also can see AXL selling its Canadian assets; particularly as Colombia oil production becomes more and more dominant in the next year or two. And we may even pick up assets elsewhere?
'Soon' is the word, though - if looking at a 5 year investment I think much will change; a volatile country, a volatile commodity, and a volatile world. Hard to know where this will be then. Many think AXL will be sold in a couple of years from now. Time will tell.

DM, about 500 boe/d is at risk (from March presentation). If they shut it in, that would make current production just 2,135 BOPD - somewhat short of the 3,000 boed projected 18 months from IPO. It would then take two successful CN wells, perhaps all 3, to reach that target of 3,000 boed.

We could also take the view that currently our gas production is not adding much to the bottom line cashflow, whether shut in or not- and perhaps we should knock most of this off our 3,000 production target anyway as being production of low value.

The conservative Auctus report is looking increasingly realistic. [' We continue to conservatively forecast 3.6 bbl/d production in 2023 and 4.4 bbl/d in 2024.']

Let's hope for higher oil prices, and higher gas prices, soon; and that the many risks noted do not materialise.

SOUC's RNS's and chat boards are useful to read to explain this situation.

From Advfn (good discussion, and thanks to EHL for getting confirmation from the company):
'MT, obviously Canadian assets are not shut in. Maybe a typo on boed. From Joe:AECO prices this week were over $2.25/GJ and have averaged $2.50/GJ for the month of April. The wells are profitable at these prices. The other consideration is that when the wells are shut in the fluid builds up in the well and we require a plunger lift to restart the wells. This is an added cost that we would like to avoid. The forward curve (below) does show AECO going to $1.50 in July. We will watch the production and economics closely to determine if a shut in is warranted. ThanksJoe.'

from RNS 1st February:
10 well drilling program including1:
- 3 C7 wells at RCE, each expected to add initial 300-500 bbls/d net to Arrow
- 3 wells at CN, each expected to add initial 300-500 bbls/d net to Arrow
- 2 Gacheta wells at RCE, each expected to add initial 200-400 bbls/d net to Arrow
- 2 wells at Oso Pardo, each expected to add initial 300-500 bbls/d net to Arrow