We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
I report what I read, IJWT, good or bad - and hope it helps people better understand their investment.
Here was a salutary post I read yesterday - eggchaser on advfn-TXP:
'Thanks to you both… won’t go into detail but to say this one is my last rodeo in terms of investing would be an understatement!
I have been, like many others, suckered into company spin from CEO’s and the like and ignored anyone who went against the grain so to speak. What’s left of my disastrous time over the last decade, seeing 95% wiped from my initial investment, means I hope to at least have a small win with this one!
Had I of gone short I would have been living on an island (not this one) and living the dream!
Fingers crossed for sure!'
https://newsday.co.tt/2023/03/22/beyond-315-ngc-helps-restore-forests-as-part-of-green-agenda/
Near us (?):
The first phase of Beyond 315 was a five-day beekeeping workshop which introduced the Rio Claro Reforestation Group to the aspects of setting up a functioning apiary. NGC’s next step is to plan and coordinate with the Apiary Unit and Forestry Division to identify lands near Union Village, Rio Claro, to set up an apiary for the group to work with and potentially turn into a business.
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=rio+claro+trinidad+map&iax=images&ia=images&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fprofile%2FRyan_Mohammed2%2Fpublication%2F319019693%2Ffigure%2Fdownload%2Ffig2%2FAS%3A667700263145476%401536203556079%2FMap-showing-the-Rio-Claro-Mayaro-Municipality-inset-and-the-sample-areas-within-the.png
https://boereport.com/2020/01/13/bankruptcy-sale-oan-resources-ltd/
2.34 mins in - after a week to 10 days 'we'll turn the pump on and we should be able to produce these much more aggressively'
Some constructive work put in from EHL on ADVFN (Thanks for sharing):
'Rc and all, from CFO now:The application for the Oso Pardo extension was filed in August 2022. Marshall, Gage, Giovanni and I met with the new ANH President in January 2023. At that meeting she told us the ANH wanted to help us but it would take some time. We are planning a trip to Bogota in early Q2 to have a second meeting with her and the ANH Team to see if they can give us an update. We feel very positive that we will get the extension and there are numerous examples of other successful reservoir extensions given in Colombia with very similar situations to ours. Sorry I can not give you a more definitive timeline. ThanksJoe'
Another part of risk assessment:
Rainy season - April to November.
https://floodlist.com/america/colombia-floods-arauca-july-2021
Looks like all our RCE and CN wells sit beside the Cravo river.
See March presentation and photographs here: https://arrowexploration.ca/tapir-block/
Warrant holders seem to have cooked their own goose. They should have let the SP rise naturally with continuous good results, and held back conversion until the summer with a much higher SP. Now everyone knows they are prepared to convert at 15p, few people are prepared to buy higher. People like myself are entering slowly as funds allow (but not to a large extent because of the political risk here - see my previous 3 posts - I wouldn't want to wake up one morning to find all the Tapir block shut in.) as the material discrepancy in value rises, and may eventually overwhelm the warrant SP drag - a cat and mouse game until October for new investors.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/03/08/2623583/0/en/Parex-Resources-Announces-Record-2022-Full-Year-Results.html
Production Update
Northern Llanos - Arauca and Capachos Blocks (50% W.I.) Update
In the Northern Llanos, on January 21, 2023, the Company proactively shut-in its Capachos Block (50% W.I.) and halted drilling operations at the Arauca Block (50% W.I.), due to heightened security concerns related to peace talks at the Federal Government level in Colombia.
The Company is supportive of the peace process and is proactively working to resume operations by engaging stakeholders at all levels. Recent actions taken by Parex to address the current situation include:
Participating in ongoing meetings and discussions with federal and regional authorities;
Ongoing engagement with local communities and leadership; and
Maintaining business and operational readiness to resume activities once it is safe to do so.
The Company's top priority remains the safety of its employees and contractors. If a timely resolution does not ensue, mitigation plans
will be implemented and updated corporate guidance would be provided in due course.
2023 Corporate Guidance Update
For the period of January 1, 2023, to February 28, 2023, estimated average production was approximately 50,700 boe/d; production was affected by the current suspension of operations in the Northern Llanos, specifically Capachos (approximately 6,500 boe/d net impact), less than expected production from LLA-34 (55% W.I.), as well as delays in the start of rig activity at VIM-1 (50% W.I.) and LLA-26 (100% W.I.).
In March 2023, excluding the Northern Llanos (Arauca and Capachos Blocks) area, the Company expects to bring 3,000 to 5,000 boe/d of incremental net production on stream from LLA-26 (100% W.I.), VIM-1 (50% W.I.), and LLA-34 (55% W.I.).
Parex’s average production guidance of 57,000 to 63,000 boe/d for FY 2023 had been widened relative to previous years in order to better account for above ground factors that can at times impact Colombian operations.
Parex's 2023 activity plan continues to progress strongly and thus the Company expects to be within its 2023 annual average
production guidance range in Q2 2023 and for the FY 2023, assuming a timely resolution at Northern Llanos.
Also note in same article:
'During January 2023 the ELN threatened oil companies operating in Arauca Department, which has long been a stronghold for the leftist guerillas. This saw SierraCol Energy, which acquired Occidental’s onshore Colombian assets in 2020, and Canadian driller Parex Resources suspend operations. Parex was also forced to shutter assets after a November 2022 attack with explosives on its facilities in the municipality of Tame Arauca.'
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Social-Unrest-Threatens-Oil-Operations-In-Colombia.html
A good and more specific article (from March 8th)- worth reading. Do not expect Capella Field (Southern border of Colombia, Caqueta- and nowhere near Tapir Block which, I think is Arauca Department?) to come back on production any time soon.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Social-Unrest-Threatens-Oil-Operations-In-Colombia.html
And, as a result, Emerald Energy is considering exiting Caqueta province entirely:
https://www.bloomberglinea.com/2023/03/07/gigante-petrolero-emerald-energy-pide-a-colombia-cancelar-contratos-de-explotacion/
'The acts of violence occurred in field Capella A (Ombu block), located in the village of Pozos (wells) of the municipality of San Vincente del Caguan'
Natural Gas price currently $2.223 (https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#Natural-Gas)
Cascadura gas will sell at fixed price of $2.5 per Mmcf.
Something going right for us (for a short while, at least - longer, hopefully). (Whereas at Paul's SOUC directorship they've suspended drilling until Gas price is $3.25+ The SP not going so well there. )
Let's hope NGC don't see this drop in gas price as an excuse to slack off on the pipeline schedule - if ever someone needed their **** kicked!
More info given here - maybe of help?
'In an interview with Express Business Baay said, “It will be about a month before we can move the rig over to Cascadura because we are still building the drilling site, so Royston probably won’t be tested until sometime in April, probably early April, or mid-April and then if it is light oil as we think it is, then it will virtually come on production right away.”
https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/crude-oil-could-soon-flow-from-touchstone-s-royston-discovery/article_076699c4-bd55-11ed-98f6-a7909c6d6dd3.html
Pathetic response. I post information - so get use to it. The fact I'm posting here shows I see AXL to be of interest. I'm not responsible for the share price, nor oil price, and to think a comment on this BB can effect the SP is just amateur.
PS - I probably got out of bed on the wrong side this morning :-)
Old article - but good:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Tax-Hikes-Threaten-To-Cripple-Colombias-Oil-Industry.html
This was from EHL on advfn yesterday:
"From CFO:How many more WARRANTS need to be exercised - 57 million
What is it as a percent remaining - 79%
Hope that helps
Thanks Joe"
(Thanks to HBR - advfn - 2 videos):
Xavier interview on bid round:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRRHqCZMok8
also History of Oil in T&T:
hTTps://youtu.be/0Is0fVnE6b4
See MT's posts yesterday on Advfn - the problem is the warrants; that's what's keeping the price low (rangebound at 18p) currently.
Watching and waiting here also.
Thanks, KS. Very helpful; but far more complicated than I ever imagined. I'll try and work through it all. And though in your comprehensive model post tax cash flow is reduced to about $100-£120m (not the $185m I naively calculated) at maximum capacity, very happy that you too arrive at this supporting £2 a share minimum once at full production due to a more favourable multiple of FCF to mcap. Thank you.
Thanks, Sturm. Slowly reached that conclusion just as you were posting.
Maybe I should try emailing TXP to see what different netbacks after tax they use themselves for gas, condensate and oil?