Member Info for Happyhaddock

A company's ability to meet investor expectations clearly depends upon how realistic each investor's expectations are;

Over the last couple of years there have been countless wildly optimistic predictions made on LSE about UFO's imminent and explosive price growth. Sadly, in spite of the fervent urgency with which others keep issuing these predictions, our share price is now significantly lower than two years ago.

Throughout that period I've encouraged caution and patience as this is a slow moving sector noted for delays and disappointments. I've long stated that my own first date for reviewing UFO's progress has always been 2025 and often said to expect a long period of struggling prices as we would inevitably have to shed the crazy exuberance of autumn 2020's price spike. For a year or more I've been suggesting that we may have to wait until roughly April 2023 for UFO's slow price decline to gradually ease. I've repeatedly said that I'm not expecting a huge re-rate this Spring, just an end to many months of a gently falling share price: that if in the future we were to look back in time, Spring 2023 may show as some sort of low and an inflection point about which our price would initially stabilise before later moving upwards again.

I've also said repeatedly that I don't expect my own predictions to be any more accurate or reliable than anybody else's. In the current macro-economic climate central banks are lurching from crisis to crisis blowing markets around like balloons in a storm. Consequently trying to accurately forecast the future is futile.

Nevertheless, as April 2023 is now upon us, I suppose we'll soon get to see if my forecasts for UFO prove to be any more accurate than other people's or if they also get confined to history's dustbin? If I'm correct, having set some sort of low during the coming month, I'd then expect our share price to stabilise for a while. I think it may be around October 2023 before expectations about Hanc*ck sustain any price gain and 2024 before news about our iron ore significantly benefits our share price. If I'm wrong then here's hoping our price makes an upwards move now rather than continue to further extend its slow decline over the coming months.

All attention here is focused upon Hanc*ck as that is Alien's priority project to bring to production. Increasingly over time, comments from Alien's management have been nudging closer to agreeing with the forecasts that I've been making for the last year or two; that of us being unlikely to see to physical preparations start at Hanc*ck until well in to 2023 and that we may not begin generating revenue until 2024. However, I've often said that it may be surprise news about our precious metals that makes our first big move up in share price, more than anticipated news about our iron ore... So that too is another expectation that the passing of time will either prove to be prescient or consign to history's dustbin.

I first shared this in 2021 but it may remain relevant.

Many silver investors (of which I have been one for over a decade) are noted for being, ermmm, shall we say "passionate about their metal". On a near daily basis so called expert media commentators try to whip silver bugs in to a frenzy. They endlessly report daily price changes which can often be attributable to nothing more than trivial fluctuations in currency values, rather than anything fundamental to the wider economy or the metal's supply or demand.

Statistics tell us about the past not the future. However, for those that follow daily price moves the following gives us something to think about in terms of future prices. Equally it may enable us to judge the scale of current or future moves and if they may be deemed to be "extraordinary" in terms of frequency, duration or magnitude.

Precious metals bull markets are rare but long lasting, there only having been two in the last fifty years where both lasted just over a decade. Many hesitantly suggest 2018 may be the start of a possible third bull market for precious metals.

Silver often fluctuates by more than +/-3% per day, where to be of note a daily move needs to be well over 5%. Ignoring this short term volatility, silver has previously followed, yet outperformed, gold in the later stages of a bull market. Historically this made silver a good choice for those "late to the gold party". However the more industrial use for silver grows, the more its price may disconnect from gold.

Silver prices are noted for endlessly drifting before spiking up erratically. Over the last fifty years it is easy to identify at least a dozen events that could arguably be deemed spikes. These have occurred both within bull markets and also within bear markets.

The largest of these spikes moved the price of silver up by over 400% over a 12month period on the back of a period of excessive inflation.

On average (mean) these spikes lifted prices by over 150% though this is skewed by the one extreme spike mentioned above. The median gain on these spikes was about 100%.

The average duration of such a spike is about half a year, occurring on average every four years. Unsurprisingly they tend to be more common in bull markets and less frequent in bear markets. The average gap between spikes in a bull market is only about two and half years, which suggests a typical bull market will probably experience three significant silver spikes before coming to an end.

Silver spiked notably between March 2020 and August 2020 where the price jumped from about $13/oz to $28/oz. In other words the price roughly doubled in roughly half a year, making this a "statistically ordinary" spike.

Silver miners offer leverage to price moves in the metal, and even non-producing silver explorers can show some correlation. Whilst the extent of this leverage varies, the gains or losses on related equities tend to be far greater than that of the metal.

As has been said Fiat currencies don't last for ever, ultimately they get abused and devalued out of existence. However such processes tend to be slow and messy where after several generations of dominance it often takes more than a generation for the new to replace the old.

We can all see the direction things are heading with the east up and the west down, but I suspect we'll all have many more candles on our birthdays cakes before the dollar loses its top spot. We're just living through the messy period where the rivals are jostling to take on "king dollar" and where we may see a few different kings each claiming sovereignty over smaller kingdoms before one outright ruler emerges.

Last time it took about thirty years and two world wars before the UK pound was finally replaced by the US dollar as a clear global reserve currency and the US and England were on the same side in those wars.

in terms of buys-vs-sells don't forget LSE software is hopelessly poor at judging and simply records data based upon comparing the price of a transaction to what it believes the mid price currently is.

Even in a relatively stable market it can be poor at distinguishing buys from sells (allowing for the fact every seller needs a buyer and every buyer needs a seller). In a volatile market like yesterday where prices were moving rapidly I'd only trust LSE to measure total volume of sales.

well if we'd been told a week or two ago that we'd be able to buy at around 15p I doubt anybody would have believed it.

Today the question seems to be if anybody is brave enough to believe it is worth buying at 15p?

Ho hum... the joys of junior explorers and why you never speculate with more than you can afford to lose!

Oh dear!

@lincolnite - they say if you have to explain a joke it isn't funny ... I'm sure plenty here understood yayay's humour.

@lincolnite - I've tilted at that windmill before and pointed out that Alien's proof reading could improve. Grammatical and spelling errors are one thing but I've also noticed occasions where lengthy formal documents have included contradictory numerical data where probable "typos" in charts and appendixes haven't been picked up...

but as they say ... There, their, they're, it will all be OK in the end!

"Gold looks very strong in light of this latest round of banking trouble.. up 6% this week alone.. that all time high is edging closer again."

Obviously you are referring to dollar priced gold, but in most currencies gold is at all time highs already. Here in the UK when priced in pound sterling gold is approx. 2% up on its last all time high and up roughly 13% on 12months ago.

I do agree though that things will get interesting if it sets new dollar highs as that is the price more people watch than anything.

"I don't have a clue what comes next .. could be anything.. but my best guess is they spout some more nonsense and keep raising rates until the banking system collapses."

Well we all know that governments around the world are looking in to CBDCs for the extra visibility and control they exert over people's spending. We also know that while there are many sheep who will unthinkingly do as they are told, it will take something very major to to compel others to switch to using such things.

Those who like their conspiracy theory's will surely link an engineered banking crisis to plans to impose CBDCs on us all as part of a future "rescue plan".

I find it incredulous how many folk predict the inevitable and keep warning of trouble and how central bankers keep on ignoring advice and warnings they must surely see as common sense...

Then again they don't worry about making things worse so long as they can kick the can far enough down the road that if the whole system fails it is under somebody else's watch... So on that basis I never rule out some even more ludicrous and extreme plan from the central banks to stop the roof from falling in just yet... by any measure of common sense the whole financial system failed miserably decades ago. Yet that hasn't stopped it lumbering relentlessly forward like the murdered victim in an opera who can sing for an eternity about the fact they are on the verge of death and still find the breath for another chorus.

Why anybody accepts a job as central banker I don't know... wait... they're greedy and arrogant enough to assume they can kick the can even further down the road than the last lot and make themselves a fortune in the mean time... they play a dangerous game somewhere between musical chairs and Russian roulette.

The majority of silver commentators on you tube are in many ways like the majority of people on LSE... passionate to the point of over enthusiasm.

There's normally some kernal of truth in what they say but you need to recognise that however much they may derive reassurance from agreeing with one another, a general consensus of opinion among a self selecting group of the most enthusiastic is unlikely to represent mainstream feeling. That you may need to dial things back to get from their idea of possible to a more widely accepted view of probable.

JC gets a lot of flack from silver bugs for challenging their claims but that's the very reasons I feel it is important to listen to folk like him.

@normbeef "I've a feeling its going to be a difficult year for the markets in 2023.. iron Ore seems to be the shining light at the moment.. Frankly I would love UFO to try and take a hedge out on the next 3 years at $120 per tonne just to protect us from the volatility."

I agree with the sentiment but if looking to hedge at $120/t I suspect you wouldn't be able to go much beyond the end of this year. To hedge three years out in today's market we'd probably not get much more than $100/t. Arguably there would probably still be a modest profit in it for us at that price, but as I've said before none of the experts can agree on forecasts for iron ore prices so who knows what the open market price may be (or even what prices on the futures market may be) once we are actually mining... hence, of course, the reason for wanting to hedge future production to offer some security going forward.

To some degree what "actually" happens to iron ore prices is less important than what the markets "expect" to happen to them as most price moves are driven by forward looking expectations where much future production is price hedged long before it is delivered.

I'd say just keep watching different price forecast but as I've pointed out before, these are very volatile and conflicted which suggests people really can't agree on where ore prices are going over the next few years. No matter what your own beliefs you can find market analysts making predictions to support them. Chris2 used to get verbally attacked for pointing out the more pessimistic end of long term iron ore price forecasts, but this doesn't mean there aren't experts out there making such forecasts, just as there are those making more optimistic forecasts.

@norm - with you on that rant all the way.

Some may call it NIMBYism but myself I live in a fairly modest little coastal community next door to a gem of a mid 18th century lighthouse in a conservation area . The area has a thriving community of artists and is a real draw for bird watchers because of all the nature reserves and beautiful views over the dunes, sea and adjacent islands.

... the locals have been fighting a major developer that wants to tear down some old "arts and crafts" style properties to put up a Miami style glass luxury over priced holiday apartment block on the beach front ... it will do nothing for the local community and is simply about making a quick buck at other people's expense.

Must always respect and work with the people (and wildlife) who regard the local landscape as their home.

@smiller - I think the reason it is more confused than that is that here in the west we have an idea of what is culturally important based upon specific buildings or paintings or books and so we expect to be able to draw a distinct boundary around what is important and what isn't. The Aboriginal people value landscape and the freedoms and connections that come with travelling over very large areas... it may be very difficult for us to understand what is important to those with a very difficult culture.

I doubt that there is any European equivalent but the closest might be declaring that all of the Mona Lisa is culturally important to people who are arguing that they only want to cut up a small bit in one corner that is far from the smile that everyone talks about as being the key characteristic of the painting...

@cj I'm no expert on the subject so don't quote me or take this a gospel but I think a large part of native title claim in terms of mining is to "come to agreeable terms" with all parties without needing to get bogged down in going to court with legalities. In most cases some sort of royalty is offered and there may even be guidelines on what this should be (I don't know?)

What I do know is that in general terms it seems to be bit of a political hot potato the subject of mining royalties that are believed to be owed not always making it to the Aboriginal people, or those royalties not actually being spent in a manner that benefits their communities.... so it may be that there is a perceived need to make the process far more formal and water tight.

@Chrisat... There is a universal principle of administration that tasks can be completed very quickly when those responsible for their completion directly benefit from their rapid completion. Where there is no direct benefit for those who need to sign the paperwork they drag on for ages...

Lets not forget that in the clock watching Western business world we may have a different perspective on time scales than Aboriginal people that have lived seasonally in a largely unchanged manner for many thousands of years.

Native title will be sorted when it's sorted and I doubt we'll hear any more about it until then.

@yayay - this board has a few "unusual personalities" -(perhaps folk view me as one of them?) but as you say there are worse bulletin boards out there for rampant over enthusiasm and endless personal conflicts between folks with differing opinions about future unknowns.

I'd just to like re-share this as it seems as applicable here as when I first wrote it about another explorer.

Advancing a mineral discovery through to a producing mine involves resolving many uncertainties and completing many physical, administrative, legal and financial processes. Many of these processes are sequentially dependent and typically rely upon the services, co-operation or permission of several different organisations, sub-contractors or partners. As such even trivial external issues can, and often do, have indirect knock-on consequences for scheduling and budgeting all subsequent internal processes.

With this thought in mind, I often find you can tell a lot about someone's understanding of, and familiarity with, the exploration sector based upon the confidence they keep placing in industry forecasts, company targets and/or broker projections. Even when offered in good faith, such statements typically promote evolving hopes for the latest best case scenario, not an infallible guide to managing the timings and costs of any and all future unknowns.

I've repeatedly seen impatient folk on LSE defiantly and categorically state that "the essential thing is..." or "we only need to ..." or "as soon as we..." as if there is only ever one simple step between where things are and everything they want quickly falling in to place. As months turn to years, those impatient investors repeatedly keep pinning all their hopes on the next news that is forecast as if that one thing will be the critical trigger to the breakthrough they dream of. They then become distressed when it arrives later than hoped for and doesn't deliver the huge move up in share price they anticipated. Most of these then immediately move all their hopes to the next forecast, whilst a few more claim they're selling-up in frustration.

Many here encourage patience and investing for the long term but show little sign of doing so themselves. Much disappointment could be avoided if people stopped treating this industry as a series of mini-sprints from RNS to RNS and saw the bigger picture as a long distance endurance event. Emotional stamina can be more important than speed in a sector where most fail to make it to the end. The whole process of putting a mine in to production typically takes years of problem solving to chip away at an extensive "to-do list". So, is the exact day we tick one more thing off that considerable list really that critical?

Surely the critical thing is that everything does eventually get ticked off that list? Those with realistic expectations based upon knowledge of industry norms should be happy as our volatile share price is higher than when we began exploring this project a few years ago, whilst the evidence suggests it is nudging forward faster than most projects. However, some always seem angry at any period without news or any reminder that in this industry targets and timetables often need to be revised.