Member Info for Happyhaddock

All too true yayay - similarly investors never seem to learn the lessons either and so continue to take every word as some sort of unbreakable promise.

Whilst I know many find my own views not to their liking, I prefer to start with an understanding of what are statistically the most common outcomes for the sector and only then look at what a specific company has to say about their planned activities to try and gauge if there is any reason to believe they may prove to be the exception rather than the norm.

Sadly delays and overspends are just par for the the course for junior explorers ... this doesn't make UFO a bad company or mean we will fail, but you can minimise disappointment if you don't treat every word as a guarantee and instead take it as an indication of best intentions.

@Forest

I'm sure many are waiting on the native title agreement as our next step forward (myself included), nor do I disagree with the statement that many here are expecting more than 2.5p before the year's end. However, many of those folks were the same ones who back in 2021 were posting about their expectations of going into production within months and of quickly reaching 10p+. So, whilst everyone has their own expectations it doesn't mean they must be fulfilled.

I've said many times that I don't expect my own predictions to be any more accurate than other people's as this is a sector noted for endless delays, losses and disappointments , I have however found that silver investors tend to be more driven by excitable narrative whilst iron ore investors can be a bit more "boring" in terms of waiting to see definite numbers on a balance sheet. Traders are a different kettle of fish who probable don't care what the business does; when they see something start to gather momentum they'll pile in and drive prices up until such a point as they cross whatever moving average, Fibonachi level or other key technical number they deem relevant, then they'll pile out again and move onto the next trend.

Hopefully I am wrong and before the year's end we will see the big price moves you mention, however I've stated before that I'm not expecting to see any revenue this year and merely expect our share price to end this year "modestly higher" than we are at the moment.

I'd just like to repost something that remains as relevant today as when I first wrote it in 2022.

As I've said before, I joined LSE after the exploration sector's wild spike in 2020 driven by my academic interest in observing the kind of arrogant or irrational beliefs that drive such behaviour. Open web-based groups inevitably attract a few with extreme views, from the seemingly paranoid believing that even the most inconsequential comments are deliberate lies intended to further some nefarious goal, to the over-excitable who seem to fervently believe even their own polemic propaganda. Milder forms of the above often show up in the insecurities prevalent among those seeking communal affirmation of their current investment choices over impartial exploration of all possible outcomes.

Whilst I have seen no evidence to suggest that the dominant opinions voiced on LSE are representative of the beliefs or actions of the silent majority who move share prices, I still believe that Alien's long term potential outweighs its risks. However, as what I believe is irrelevant to the markets, as best as I am able, I try to calmly acknowledge all future unknowns including possible outcomes and timescales that contradict my own hopes for UFO. I'll say no more about some people's overly emotional behaviour other than that the junior exploration sector seems a curious place to speculate for impatient people who are fearful of uncertainty and doubt.

I'd previously expressed the hope that positive expectation might have allowed us to recapture some of 2020's crazy price spike in autumn 2021. However, I'd also said that if news flow didn't satisfy high expectations then our share price would be falling by that Christmas setting up a prolonged period of price stagnation. That this in turn might set up another crazy move with the potential to over-value us again before 2025. I've often stated that it is unlikely that we will be able to start physical preparations at Hanc*ck before late 2023, meaning that we may not see any revenue before 2024. I've also stated that I don't expect my own predictions to be any more reliable than other people's which is why I don't try to trade the volatility or time the market.

Whilst I am a little disappointed, I am neither surprised nor worried that we are still continuing to shed 2020's gains as the administrative cogs do turn slowly. We seem trapped in a catch 22 situation where our price is currently falling because people are holding off buying until the price moves dramatically upwards. However, it is not without precedent for folk to only get excited and rush to invest after something has become over-valued rather than when it looks cheap.

The position I built before 2020's price spike remains profitable for me, and I remain hopeful about UFO's long term future. However, for the time being I'll continue to keep my shares in the bottom drawer neither selling nor adding to my position.

Isn't that just another attempt at a similar meeting held a month or two ago for one of Alien's outlying tenements rather than hanc*ck?

@tacet,

I've always been fond of the expression that "A genius is somebody that can learn something even from a fool, whilst a fool is somebody that can learn nothing even from a genius."

... it often leads me to wonder if the lessons learnt are what others think they are teaching, or if those who think they have the most to teach are the ones who most need to recognise when others are studying a different subject!

With you on that one Mr.v

... Regardless of which side of the argument they take, I'm always surprised by the confidence (arrogance?) with which some here argue their opinions as facts... Mostly odd in a sector defined by uncertainty and doubt and where the very nature of speculating in explorers is evaluating the probabilities and possibilities inherent in future unknowns.

Still I've always defined intelligence as the ability to fully appreciate the true extent of one's own ignorance, as that is where you build a solid foundation for learning.

@normbeef - totally with you on that, but therein lies my concern; Clearly both AA and UFO will want to agree a deal from which they both feel they are making acceptable profits. If they can't find a price level both are happy with then a deal won't be done.

IF AA see Hanc*ck as merely a "foot in the door" to better things then they may be wiling to be more generous in the margins they leave us. If they want to play hard ball and ensure enough of a margin for themselves to ensure they profit from selling it on to their own customers might we have to walk without signing on the dotted line?

As I say it's all conjecture at the moment and my own gut feeling is that things likely will go ahead at a price that leaves us a tiny margin that whilst not making us rich, does contribute towards our exploration costs elsewhere. However I know no more than anybody else here so I'm just trying to acknowledge the full range of possibilities, along with the fact this market usually surprises by doing something you fail to anticipate.

@normbeef - I've been hoping that if the AA deal comes through that we would be able to fix prices directly with them to avoid open market volatility. However it seems inconceivable that expectations of where open market prices might go in the future wouldn't shape such a private agreement.

Even today, a day when futures prices have leapt up considerably, it still isn't possible to hedge at a three figure price for DSO iron ore beyond the end of 2023. So whilst hedging at $100/t might be great for us would AA want to agree to such a deal for 2024 and beyond?

At this point it is all just conjecture and speculation as such volatile prices will likely continue to go up and down a lot before we get all the administrative clearances we need to start signing on the dotted line for any finance deal.

I've mentioned many times before how volatile iron ore prices are, and for those looking to hedge, futures prices can be even more volatile with a some sort of whiplash effect magnifying short term volatility the further you look into the future.

That said, at the moment there almost seems to be some sort of indecisive panic about where futures prices are heading. Just this week I've seen daily moves both up and down of over $10/t when looking out until late in 2026. Today there's been a jump from below $70/t to over $85/t.

How on earth you plan a business when the price of the commodity you aim to sell seems to be decided by a daily lottery? ... still if a daily move of more than $15/t has occurred I'm glad it was up not down, but who knows where prices will be come the time we actually have truck loads of iron ore to sell.

"I think its a question of how far does anyone consider that UFO can go ? how can it grow / change over time.. is it worth holding for the longer term ?"

I think the big distinction is between "how far it can go?" and "how far it will go?" ... or the distinction between possibilities and probabilities. If ... and it's a very big "IF" at this point, everything we've got on our books at the moment fulfils all its potential then we really don't need anything new to become a multi-billion dollar company...

Is that likely? Well it is far too soon to tell and many might say that in a sector characterised by disappointments, delays and losses it will take many year's more good luck and hard work than most small companies ever can muster. On the other hand, the club of junior companies with that much potential is pretty small, and the membership fee to join almost trivial... so whilst I wouldn't "invest" in UFO I am happy to speculate with cash I can afford to lose as even if the future only sees us realise a tiny fraction of our potential that's still likely to be a big win.

Whatever the market and whatever the time there are always things going up, things going down and a lot of stuff going no where...

The mistake is to assume you can always be the perfect trader holding the things going up and out of those going down. Everybody gets lucky occasionally and a few have the skill to get "lucky" more than average, but statistics suggest the vast majority of folks who chase winning trades actually end up losing money. Such folk seem to be always kicking themselves for constantly selling out of today's losers to jump on to the next bandwagon when it is already at its top, before sooner or later one of the first "dogs" they sold out of actually makes it big.

I've learnt the hard way that I'm no trader so I only buy companies I want to own long term then try to buy them when they are massively out of favour. That way there is minimum downside risk and it makes the long wait for the market to come to you that much easier. In the case of UFO it had a mkt cap of just £2m when I built the majority of my position here, where although the ride has been volatile we seem to be moving slowly forward. Hindsight shows I had the opportunity to sell out when the price was almost tens times what it is today. However, if I had the mindset of a trader I'd probably have sold out at a "decent profit" on the way up long before ever getting to that high and still be waiting for it to fall low enough to get back in at the price any sensible trader might have first sold at.

Well it is that time again when I offer my half yearly thoughts on the months ahead and look back on my prior predictions.

I've long highlighted the volatile nature of an exploration sector noted for endless delays and big losses. Sadly, as a consequence of suggesting that after 2020's wild high we may experience a long period of struggling prices, I have faced countless accusations of "de-ramping" from a few who have spent the last two and a half years repeatedly arguing that everyone must buy UFO "before it's too late". For well over a year I had been suggesting that my expectation was that our slow decline would end with our share price stabilising after bottoming in or around April 2023. I still feel that Hanc*ck probably won't deliver first revenue until 2024 whilst 2025 was always, and remains, my first date for appraising UFO's progress.

Having ended 2022 below 0.6p/share Alien continued to drift down to around 0.4p. In late April 2023 we recorded a new 52week low (actually UFO's cheapest since summer 2020) of 0.36p/share. It ends June 2023 by again pushing against that low, where rightly or wrongly I expect this to continue acting as some sort of rough floor for our share price. I feel it may be a while before anticipation about Hanc*ck will sustain moves above the day-to-day noise as I suspect most now are waiting on clear news about going into production. A decisive price move may not come until we learn how much above our FOB costs our total sustaining expenditure will be, and hence the ore price we need to exceed to throw off free cash flow.

Our share price is well below autumn 2020's crazy spike beyond 3p. This now offers a more favourable entry point to the patient and contrarian speculator who can stomach the risks and current sentiment in return for the potential long term rewards. As I don't expect my own predictions to be any more reliable than other people's, I won't put an exact number to our share price six months from now, I'd simply say that I expect it to end 2023 modestly higher than today. If I am wrong here's hoping a surprise about precious metals takes it much higher, rather than going lower still on more dilution or waiting on our iron ore.

From a broader financial perspective I have always encouraged patiently maintaining a defensive position to hedge against further global instability. Increasing attention is being given to growing international tensions and how the BRICS economies continue to distance themselves from the US dollar. The biggest unknown and threat to conventional western investments remains the extent to which the interventions of central banks and politicians will make the unstable situation worse. Beyond saying that things could get "ugly" I don't pretend to know how or when this will all play out, but fortunes are made by those prepared for times when most around them are losing their shirts.

Tamer - thanks for the info .. didn't think I'd read anything in an RNS about this.

Cheers

I've seen a few mentions on this board lately about the sale of our second rill rig ... Whilst I know we are disposing of various assets, have I missed some sort of formal statement from ECR about this drill or is it just speculation that we might sell it?

Cheers

HH

As has been said everybody has their own expectations and timescales, though I will reiterate the sentiment that anybody that "invests" in a company like UFO, or AIM in general is probably missing the point and failing to recognise the risks and uncertainties inherent in this sector and market. That's not to say I don't feel that UFO is a great speculative punt for money you can afford to risk: I've been here a while and seen the mkt cap grow from approx. £2m to about £20m today, but it goes without saying that there is no money back guarantee if things go pear shaped and we all know that the mkt cap has been much higher along the way.

Primarily I'm here for the long term prospects of EH and Munni Munni, but these may collectively take over a decade to come to fruition. Personally I think iron ore prices are too volatile and small producers costs are generally too high for Hanc*ck to be sure of always making us a profit. If ore prices can maintain some of the positivity they are currently showing it might generate us a few quid to help fund slower exploration work which would be a real plus for a tiny company like UFO, so it does seem like a risk worth pursuing.

I've always stated that 2025 was my first date for reviewing UFO's progress and that hasn't changed. Others who have bought in the last couple of years with much shorter term horizons and grander hopes may be feeling a little disappointed by the way things have played out. However the only cause of disappointment is expectation, keep your expectations modest and reasonable and it is harder for AIM to disappoint.

We've spoken at length here about the daily ups and down in the iron ore price, and it is good to currently see it heading back in our favour. However, we all know the current iron ore price is only of relevance in so much as how it affects the price at whatever point in the future we are signing on the dotted line to commit to selling the stuff, be that at volatile open market prices or hedged at a fixed price on the futures market.

Since starting work exploring Hanc*ck we've seen it run from $80/t to $230/t, back down to $80/t, back up to $160/t back to $80/t and up again to around $115/t. No doubt it will move up and down a lot more over the coming months. At some point we'll find out how much more than our estimated FOB costs IOCA's all in sustaining costs will be, and hence the minimum ore price we will need to achieve to for our revenue to exceed our out-goings

Until then the current ore price is little more than a point of idle chit chat, where we all have theories of what it needs to exceed to make our future profitable... My own thoughts are that we'll likely need to exceed about $90-$95/t to actually throw off free cash flow to re-invest elsewhere, but no doubt others will have their own thoughts on this matter.

We all know how volatile iron ore prices are and that what happens to them this month may be very different to the following months. Nevertheless whilst the daily price of iron ore has ben holding up fairly well these last few weeks, it's good to see the futures prices for next summer and beyond also start to drift back up towards territory where we stand a decent chance of making a profit.

If speculating in junior explores you have to accept a large degree of uncertainty and volatility, with many suggesting you should never risk more than you can afford to lose however good the opportunity.

Whilst one might expect laboratory delays, poor drill results, administrative overspends and/or construction problems which are par for the course in this sector, the situation with OMI is both a new and "oddly different" one for me. In effect we have great assets, cash in the bank and have (had?) the backing of wealthy partners, but we seem to be drifting in limbo doing nothing with any of them which is hugely damaging for the SP and investor confidence.

It would take very little action for the market to be reassured and the SP to rise again, which is a reason to stay the course rather than take the loss by selling up. Yet there is no indication that management are actively pushing for action with our partners so as to get us back out of limbo... For all we know they could be working their butts off on our behalf trying to resolve this without alienating our partners, yet if markets are not given clarity, or worse still told little at at all they always assume the worst and move on... and so until something else gives ground then it is our share price that does!

I'd like to repeat some thoughts that I've posted a few times over the years as the sentiment remains as valid today as when first written.

Like many, I've been invested here for quite a while and I remain a patient and cautiously hopeful share holder. However, with many having excitedly bought at much higher prices, only for prices to fall, many of the posts on this board have become insecure bickering and personal insults.

So, whilst there is no reason that anyone should care about my views, might I remind people of the obvious!

1) AIM exists as a fund raising mechanism for smaller companies to try and grow. Routine share dilution is therefore par for the course for mineral explorers trying to advance their inherently volatile projects. If you can't handle a sector characterised by uncertainties or don't trust a company's management then you shouldn't speculate in such shares.

2) Countless statistics show that almost all active investors underperform passive market trackers and about three quarters lose money trading stocks. So remember, an investment's ability to meet your expectations doesn't depend on what another, potentially ill informed, investor hopes might happen in the future, it depends upon how realistic your own expectations were at the time you decided to speculate in a volatile and unpredictable sector.

3) Bulletin boards typically represent the views of a most passionate and vocal minority, not the silent majority who actually move markets. If someone blindly acts on the opinions of strangers on the inter-net without having done their own research and taken responsibility for their own actions they will likely have already lost whatever wealth they had to invest.

4) Consequently it may be delusional to assume that overzealous arguing directly influences enough wealthy investors to drive a share price either up or down. Not that this stops that vocal minority from endlessly complaining and accusing others of "ramping" or "de-ramping" when things aren't going as they hoped for.

5) Nobody benefits from acting on emotion. Simply learn from your mistakes if you have speculated with more than you can afford to lose or allowed yourself to form unrealistic expectations about risks, valuations and/or timetables.

It is possible to respectfully debate conflicting opinions about future unknowns by presenting opposing facts to support an alternate theory, where offensive and inarticulate comments can de-value even valid points. Sadly, many posts are simply emotional rants; posts which aren't actually making any point about investing, the economy or the company in question. We may all wish to vent frustration from time to time but no one should insult, patronise or try to silence people with differing opinions simply to bolster their own delicate egos.

So does anybody further their own cause or credibility if what they write presents them self as a petulant bully squabbling in the school yard?

Well aside from the whole procedure seemingly being many layered and as clear as mud, the 5minutes allocated to IOCA on 1st June at 11.10am is described as;

"Conference into an objection to the inclusion of an expedited procedure statement in a future act notice"

5minutes clearly isn't enough for lengthy discussion and debate of fine details to arrive at a complex conclusion, whilst the term "expedited procedure statement" makes it seem to me as if this isn't about finalising any kind of decision now, just about deciding if things are simple enough to be moved through a quicker admin. process or if things get bogged down in a more detailed and time consuming process.

No doubt we'll told once there is something to tell us ... probably best not to sweat it too much at this stage as there is nothing us shareholders can do to speed things up, we just have to be patient and keep waiting.