Member Info for Happyhaddock

We all know the history of some on this bulletin board who endlessly claim that imminent news will cause our share price to rocket. They constantly dismiss warnings of over-optimism only for reality to keep falling short of their excitable predictions. As our share price keeps falling ever further from its high of above 3p in 2020, how often have they argued that "this time is different" because whatever was about to happen was "the most important thing" or a "game changer"? So, when Alien's struggles have been typical of the sector, can repeated failures to meet this bulletin board's high hopes be attributed to unrealistic expectation and are they any more realistic now?

In autumn 2023, many here claimed that a share price re-rate was near based upon Hanc*ck being certain to get native title approval before the end of Nov.2023. These people robustly dismissed suggestions that, even if approved without objection, a decision may take some time to be formally ratified and may not move the share price as they hoped for. As it was we only had to wait until mid Dec.2023 to receive an RNS confirming native title approval. On anticipation our share price climbed from about 0.17p to start the week that native title approval was announced at 0.32p. Following that RNS it immediately dropped to 0.22p, soon reaching 0.13p.

With that fall in our share price, this bulletin board's "justification" for predicting an imminent re-rate switched to months of jubilant claims that our mining permits would be issued within days. Again folk dismissed warnings of over-optimism with anticipation lifting our share price back up to 0.22p. We finally received the RNS confirming the issue of our mining permits in Apr. 2024 whereupon our share price quickly fell below 0.18p, dropping as low as 0.11p in the following weeks.

This bulletin board then fixated on our share price re-rating on an imminent JV to finance iron ore production. Hope took our share price back up to 0.24p before being told in 2025 that a deal on Hanc*ck had fallen through because volatile iron ore prices had made it uneconomic. Having fallen below 0.06p our share price briefly bounced back to 0.13p on news of a silver JV deal, but our share price is now around 0.08p.

As I've said many times before, long delays and share dilution are normal both for this risky sector's many failures and rare successes. Most steps forward are sign-posted in advance leading fickle traders to "buy the rumour and sell the news" driving spikes in trading volume and new names to appear on this bulletin board to briefly champion predictions of imminent price gains. For the last five years I've repeated my belief that our wealth lay in the long term potential of our non ferrous metals and that I would first review Alien's performance in 2025. So, I will continue to hold my small speculative position, ignore the incessant hype, and take the risk of waiting to see where we end the year.

Well I've listened to the interview trying to find positives, and in once sense as a PR exercise it was all "positives" however it was basically singing from the same hymn sheet Alien's directors always sing from and one most LTH can now quote from memory...

All the positives were the same positives we've been hearing about for years as were the same "months not years" estimated timescales, whilst all the difficult questions were avoided with the same explanations.

So basically all good if they actually deliver, but as we've heard it all before many times, I guess the number who believe they will actually deliver what they say and when the say must be dwindling!

"So only 1 person interested in this iron ore news?"

I think over time folk are beginning to realise how fleeting the profit margins of small iron or miners can be and how questionable the economics of Hanc*ck may be. It may be that ore prices shoot up and make this more attractive, it may be that over time we enlarge the resource to a scale we can bring down production costs, or it may be that we can tempt a neighbour to take an interest. Conversely global ore production may increase as predicted, some economic crisis may cause a global recession and kill demand, or some other factor may cause ore prices to fall further.

Ore prices are already below $100/t, have been for a while and are in a general long term down trend where the most recent long term forecast I read, along with long term futures pricing, sees them heading below our predicted OPEX

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/bmi-expects-iron-ore-price-to-decline-steadily-over-the-next-decade-2025-05-16

Everything about speculating on junior explorers is about trust and faith ... Much about the future is unknown where I guess the number of folk here that are interested in iron ore news depends upon how many believe that iron-ore prices are going up rather than down and how many believe that we have a competent BOD that can drive forward Hanc*ck to a point of generating profits.

Nobody doubts the good silver grades from EH, but anybody surprised by them clearly hasn't been paying attention, where as 5x5 says it is so far a small volume in total. What we need are grades like that, or even a fraction of that, from far enough out to suggest the ore body has some size to it. Generally speaking most large miners don't show any interest in a find of less than 100Moz. The insane grades at EH will probably make it economic at much less than 100Moz but as more of a small boutique/artisanal mine.

So whilst it is good that work is finally taking place at EH again, today's news is just about trying to attract market attention again, not really about telling us anything we didn't already know.

I'm reminded of the following post I made here some months ago having previously received considerable abuse at a time this bulletin board was again getting overly excited about GWMO's "imminent" transition to become a gold producer. A post whose sentiment remains valid here today, and across the entirety of a risky junior exploration sector noted more for marketing hope and future potential than completed achievements.

Well... dilution, delays and disappointment are just normal and routine in the junior exploration sector, especially those trying to become junior producers. So, as I last said when some here fixated on the 16th Jan 2025 as being the date that GWMO would officially become a gold producer;

"there are grounds for patient long term optimism here, but also a lot of excitable folk setting themselves up for short term disappointment"

I'm sure these latest uncertainties will eventually be resolved, then we can move on to the next issues we need to address so as to keep working towards the desired outcomes we want ... it is just unfortunate that impatient markets and unrealistic expectations typically deliver such volatile changes to share prices on such statistically probable delays and/or dilution.

Well I suppose another possibility that, whilst unappealing, can't be ruled out until we actually have some facts is "forced surrender"...

Under certain circumstances if a company has failed to comply with all the rules and regulations , or not met any specific terms of the license the authorities can compel that company to surrender a license...

I'm not saying that is the case here or that I know of any breach of terms, just trying to pre-empt as many possible explanations as I can in the hope that somewhere along the line one may be right.

Well there is very little that seems clear but we can say:-

For sometime we have been the holder of the Red Setter license and that wasn't due to expire for sometime longer.

We are still listed as the holder for at least a short/un-defined period longer as even those places mentioning the surrender list it as "pending" not completed, whilst other official sites don't yet mention it all.

These two facts at least imply a deliberate intention from WSBN to change the status quo rather than administrative oversight and letting things lapse.

We know we are/were due to start re-drilling Red Setter imminently and that such activities, especially at depth, won't be something we could easily pay out of our petty cash.

It would be sensible to assume that GGP would keep an interested eye on what was happening on their doorstep and we do know that they now have the cash flow to cover our tiny drill program out of their considerably larger petty cash.

We can speculate and theorise that some sort of deal has been done that we will learn about when complete, but in a junior exploration sector defined by uncertainty, delay, loss and failure, making any assumptions can come back to bite you very quickly!

At the very least one might expect a competent BOD to issue an RNS addressing these rumours by either denying them or explaining the reasons behind such decisions.

However for that to happen our BOD would have to be both sufficiently on the ball to know what is happening, and sufficiently interested in their sharholders to want to keep them informed.

According to minedex WA mine licensing database

EL 45/5297

Status Live

Applied for 09 July 2018

Granted27 August 2019

Expires27 August 2029

Active holder WISHBONE GOLD WA PTY LTD

Clearly there is a lot of confusion here and I suspect it relates to which license actually is actually Red Setter ... not discounting the fact I too may also be one of those who is confused but people may be talking at crossed purposes about different licenses.

According to minedex WA mine licensing database

EL 45/5297

Status Live

Applied for 09 July 2018

Granted27 August 2019

Expires27 August 2029

Active holder WISHBONE GOLD WA PTY LTD

Clearly there is a lot of confusion here and I suspect it relates to which license actually is actually Red Setter ... not discounting the fact I too may also be one of those who is confused but people may be talking at crossed purposes about different licenses.

We do know that just a few months ago WSBN was suspended as part of plans for a reverse takeover and a complete change of direction ... then last minute that "fell through" and all of a sudden Red Setter was again being hailed as a major part of WSBN portfolio and too important to ignore.

I'm wondering is surrendering Red Setter somehow relates to those earlier plans and is perhaps something that having been set in motion they either couldn't stop or forgot to cancel?

... there are many things that you'd like to think should have been done or which should be legal or at least moral requirements, but you mustn't forget that AIM is a cesspit of "questionable" practices with minimal legislation and minimal will to enforce what legislation there is. Fine for small speculative punts but it's very rare that you find anything you can truly invest in.

In terms of Red Setter I'll be curious to see "what comes out in the wash" as they say!

Cheers for the reply - I hold a very small speculative position in WSBN so was aware of their "current" plans to deepen some of their existing drill holes... sadly I am also aware of the reputation of some of WSBN's management and the number of folk who would be surprised at nothing in terms of how low they would stoop to shaft their own shareholders if it lined their own pockets...

With regard to Red Setter I'm very curious to see "what comes out in the wash" as they say!

Is this an intentional "surrender" part way through a designated period of "ownership" or just administrative incompetence and forgetting to renew things after a designated period has come to an end?

@smiller - You may yet profit from your short where as I've said before everybody has different risk tolerance and goals, so the most important things is to be able to live with the consequences of any actions you take, if you can accept the loss then there is no harm in taking the risk.

The following brief comment I posted today on another silver stock's LSE bulletin board where it reflects my view about the current volatility in silver and the gold;silver price ratio that seems important only to the extent it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy because so many folk are told it is important ...

Well silver could pass $37/oz and and YTD still have made a smaller gain than gold. So whilst I am personally pleased to see the move, for the time being this feels more like silver catching up with gold than the true break out people talk about where silver massively exceeds gold in performance...

Lets see where we end June as those who believe in the market manipulation conspiracy theories always maintain it doesn't matter what metals do early in the month, they are taken down in price to close out each quarter when various contracts need settling.

Silver is so prone to disappoint that those inclined to short it after a big move up historically win more often than they lose ... however silver is also so volatile and unpredictable that you probably need balls of steel to ever risk shorting it! I certainly never would but then I'm naturally cautious around any kind of speculative financial transaction.

To my mind the only way to be sure to benefit from silver is to buy it when you are young with the notion of selling it when you are old... that way might just be long enough for the passage of time to allow any signal to drown out the immense noise. To that end I'm fortunate to now be sitting on plenty of silver Britannia bought when they were readily available for under £18/coin. The typical or median annual increase in value can be pitiful, but over the years the mean annual increase in value once you allow for the odd rogue year when things get crazy makes it worth putting up with all the "dud" years!

Well silver could pass $37/oz and and YTD still have made a smaller gain than gold. So whilst I am personally pleased to see the move, for the time being this feels more like silver catching up than the true break out people talk about where silver massively exceeds gold in performance...

Lets see where we end June as those who believe in the market manipulation conspiracy theories always maintain it doesn't matter what metals do early in the month, they are taken down in price to close out each quarter when various contracts need settling out.

I think we've all heard the same propaganda about silver for so long there can't be any silver bugs out there that aren't at least a little jaded, but it is good to see some positive price action.

So who knows may be it will take off this time and keep flying, maybe the "this time is different" arguments really will be true... if nothing else we can live in hope!

Regardless silver should keep moving up with gold even if it doesn't make the truly explosive moves way in excess of gold that click-bait headlines on you-tube keep promising.

@sharetrader - I hope you are right - myself I have seen the mkt cap of UFO increase considerably since I bought in when it was just £2m (so one sixth of what you entered at), however much as the mkt cap has gone up, the management style of UFO's transient BOD (s) means they achieved it whilst also lowering the share price.

Well, much as our BOD keep describing Hanc*ck as our flagship project, many people here have argued over many years that it is silver that excites this bulletin board - of course the counter argument from the iron ore fans is that prior excitement on this bulletin board about silver hasn't had a lasting benefit on our share price.

So will the "this time is different" argument carry any more weight now than it has in the past, or will it all turn out to be nothing more than over excitement about a bit of short lived volatility?

If nothing else it makes for interesting viewing, and for those of us here that do stack physical silver, todays activity can't do any harm to our balance sheets.